DiamondClub

Thanks for the reply. The only points I have from my data in that regard was that he had previously flatted AQo against a 4b and also flatted AA vs a 3b. Nothing on his jamming range specifically. But the above leads me to believe that he can have AA, KK, QQ here.

Thanks for the reply - I did not intend to hide the flop here.

My mistake - I accidentally hid it.

Ok, so we are folding when we hit our hand OTR ? Firstly, 10 into 18 gives you odds of 1.8:1 or 1/2.8=0.35 (that's 35% you need here) with one card to come.
If this guy is decent, as you said, then he won't pay you off OTR when you hit your hand meaning you have little to no implied odds, or do you expect him to pay you when he holds 99 with the 9s (these are the flushes you want to get paid by). He will also bet the river as a bluff with some frequency (not often, but he can make you fold a flush OTR as you have demonstrated). So either, you call it off when you make your flush or you fold the turn and save yourself another half-pot-sized bet.

If this was a singly-raised pot, I'd see your point. But since it's a 3b pot, we are OOP, have a monotone board, with an overcard and villain shows aggression. I don't think you will make much money here.

Vs

TT+, AJs+, A5s-A2s, AJo+, KQs, KQo you have 50% equity on this flop. If he cbets TP+ and some draws you have 29% equity vs his value hands and 45% vs his draws.

Value hands: KK+, AQs+, A5s-A2s, AKo

Draws: QQ, TT, AQo-AJo

Your hand didn't improve relative to his value hands. You now have 13% equity. Vs his entire range at this point you have about 30% here and little implied odds on a fourth spade plus his range is reasonably strong to begin with,

Tweak those ranges and see what happens but you will likely find that it's not the greatest spot for you to call in my opinion.

What do you expect to get paid off by when you hit your hand ? I think you can fold the turn here pretty safely. Without implied odds it's not maximizing your EV here to call.

I was considering a flop fold but I wasn't convinced that he is a nit after 37 hands. I agree it's a fold on this turn.

Buy in for 100BB first of all :) i think with the price you are getting pf is fine. though i don't hate folding QJo at these stakes vs a bigger sizing / a 3b + cold call since you'll frequently be dominated in a 3b pot vs two ppl especially when you get action ! this spot is unfortunate though and once you get to the flop / turn not much you can do to avoid getting stacked.

Not sure about stacking off with AK v UTG open, at least when it's a TAG. Same goes for QQ. Especially at ZOOM people are tight. Different story vs people we have a read on / fish. Ofc the blockers of AK are great. I don't think it's as clear as one might think. I spoke to someone who checked severeal DBs 10-100NL for 4b AK OOP v LP 3bets. People are bleeding money. I think we will encounter a similar problem here.

I assume OP wants to study the (two) books written by Will Tipton on Heads-Up No Limit Hold'em.

The problem I think you will have is that you don't know whether he will fold an Ace to the third barrel. I think AK, AQ, AT are almost never folding. OTR thats a large part of his range. Therefore I like two barrels but not the third unless you have a read that he gives up frequently OTR.

I think b/f flop is a good line to take here. You will be surprised how often people just fold.

I like a x/r OTF. You have a great draw and also some SDV vs his overcards / flushdraws. This is also a bard you should have some fold equity vs some overcards that decide to bet the flop, him folding AK would be pretty great although we are ahead.

I think his line is almost never a bluff, so you will be up against straights and sets most of the time, probably some better FDs that also have a GS OTT. Against the sets, some of your flush outs aren't clean and you also have some reverse implied odds vs better flush draws. Therefore I would just fold the turn since the river action is likely to end up being break even at best in my opinion with some tricky spots when your flush does hit and villain shows aggression.

Your WTSD (Went to showdown) seems really low - I think something like 25%-30% would be considered average. Also your AF is quite high at 7, since I don't know the sample size that may be just variance. Also your VPIP/PFR gap is quite large, so you may be calling a little too much PF and probably get pushed off your hand postflop too often.

I think UTG is most likely to have an overpair/ top pair or better + some flushdraws/OESDs when he raises the flop. I like 3betting the flop here with the intention of gii v some worse sets, JJ+, FDs/SDs against all of which you obviously have great equity.

I can only guess on how often UTG will raise 8x hands on this flop, but I think the runout is actually okay. KQ or QJ, KJ would be much worse - therefore I think that I agree with the way you played it given that you didn't raise the flop.

not working for me either.

edit: fine now,thx!

I definitely do see where you are coming from when you say call down -
however I like raising the flop. That is because SB will have a bunch of Ax (suited or off-suit) which he can call PF (and not 3b which is most people's tendency at the lower stakes - I rarely see a 3b%>10 from the blinds from any player) and which won't fold to a flop raise. You probably get one or two more bets out of him OTT and OTR on a low runout. Should he fold that will mostly be okay since all of his broadways and FDs and BDFDs have like 20-45% equity OTF.
It's kind of counter-intuitive to raise because we have a hard time finding enough (semi-)bluffs on this kind of texture that raise but don't fold to a 3b. Since it's two-tone we are also a little more likely to get barrelled which won't be a too nice with our hand if the the flush card hits or a J,K,T,Q comes (which is about half the deck ?!). Last but not least, you have the best hand OTF virtually always since I am pretty sure he 3bets AQ(most of it at least),QQ,AA PF. So we are really worried about 1 combo of 99 here and very few AQ.

As played I would not fold this turn. If it was a 3b pot I am inclined to agree with you - but not in a SRP where he won't have the aforementioned hands very often.

Should he lead the flop with something like KdTd,KsX (which seem like good candidates) he'll very frequently keep betting this turn (in general their may be some BDFDs in his leading range which keep betting) because he doesn't really have showdown value vs your flop continuing range.

+1

or just 4b/fold - ppl don't shove worse than QQ in that spot in my experience at these stakes, seen it often enough. They do however defend poorly against 4bets/5bets whether IP or OOP with their marginal 3betting hands which is why I like 4b/f'ing this hand especially given his large sizing (wtf ?).

I think it's a tough spot given that we can't really be sure what villain defends PF v 3bets. I think (that's my impression from the hands I have played up to now from
2nl-50nl) that people tend to defend a little wider when it comes to PPs and they are OOP because they still have the notion that set mining is always profitable. The question is whether he has enough AK combos that he takes this line with assuming that he is generally more prone to underbluffing most spots - as is the general population tendency at lower stakes imo. I would lean towards a fold since I think he will not be value betting widely enough / bluffing enough with this line for you to able to call. I want to emphazise that I think that this fold is exploitative but imo correct most of the time. i may be wrong!

Just saw is c-bet flop at 91 - seems like he likes to bet OTF. That might make me want to call and then raise the flop, but probably on lower textures where his probably overcard heavy c-bet range won't be able to stand much heat. But you'd need a read that he likes to c-bet with "air" that doesn't want to be raised. It's quite exploitative.

I also ouldn't defend this PF. JTo just won't win you very much money in the long run. reverse implied odds, hardly ever a good FD, sometimes a straight draw which may not even be clean in a 3b pot. All this makes me wanna fold PF, if not there, then certainly on the flop. you have mediocre backdoors and your J will almost never be good against his barreling range even if you hit.

I think he will have a flush more often than you think. He can defend 76,87,98,T9,JT, KT+,QT+, A2s+, some AK combos (say 50%), some combos of KK (say 30%) that he chooses to slowplay. Using that he will have a flush on this turn about 16% and a set 7% of the time. I don't think given the way the population plays mostly that Hero will be good here very often or rather that they will have enough bluffs to make you want to call with AA here (without the Ad).

For reference, this is the range I used to have a quick look in crEV:

TT-99,44,AQs-A2s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo,KQo,[30]AA-KK[/30],[50]QQ-JJ,AKs,AKo[/50],[75]AJo-ATo,KJo,QJo[/75]

Hope you have Flopzilla /crEV

I would start by checking back the turn. He has all the overpairs and probably some Tx as well. Your hand won't get 3 streets of value here and with the board pairing it will be hard for him to call with worse hands!

Well, he won't always bet the river.

raise bigger PF with fish in the blinds, bet bigger OTF, OTT and jam river, you block the nutflush. as played I'd probably still call. his 11wtsd doesn't mean very much after 110 hands.

I would 3b smaller, to 10BB or so.

why do you start checking the turn ? It's a pretty clear value bet imo, TT,JJ,QQ are never folding and he can peel the flop w/ AK, AQ, KQ w/ backdoor draws. He will rarely have JT or 56 and probably raises sets otf with an AF of 4.2.

I think you have to fold river here for a couple of reasons.

I used flopzilla to look at the range he might defend OTB v you 3b, it is slightly on the tighter side

JJ-22,AQo,AQs-ATs,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J9s,T9s,[50]AJo,KQo-KJo,QJo,A9s-A2s,K8s,Q8s,J8s,T8s,98s,87s[/50],[20]QQ,AKo,ATo,AKs[/20]

1) At 10NL people rarely 3barrel bluff especially in this kind of situation where you go to the flop as the PFR in a 3b pot.

2) He doesn't actually have that many strong hands that want to raise the flop, without reads that would be KJs (only KcJc left), JJ (3 bombos left), KK (1 combo left) and 55 (3 combos). I wouldn't expect him to turn MP and PP type hands into a bluff very often.

There are a few gutshots (Q9,AQ,T9,AT the stronger ones you also block which is nice) and an OESD w/ QT. Now these draws make up 19.78% of the defending range I assigned him, at the same time his nut hands (2p+) make up 6.85% so he will have to bluff his gutshots very frequently (especially on the flop) for you to be able to continue. By very frequently I mean 65%+ of the time.
If he doesn't do that and we now want to take this to the river he will have even fewer bluffs because he will shut down with some OTT.
Therefore, given his sizings I like calling OTT and just folding the river.