DBRose
8 points
Can you explain further why he should be happy betting the 8 turn and jamming the river?
June 20, 2014 | 4:39 p.m.
Thanks for the replies! So if we know he gets to the river with a wide range in which 40% of his range beats our value hands and 60% of his range loses to our value hands, then his strategy will pay off a GTO strategy versus breaking even against it?
Further if we knew this information about his river range, could we play explotatively vs him to maximize our EV by changing our value:bluff combos or bet sizing?
May 9, 2014 | 9:30 p.m.
I've played mid stakes for quite some time but I have not worked off the tables with math and constructing ranges like I should. I am trying to get to the point where I can work on several spots off the tables in able to discuss spots intelligently on these forums. So, this is probably a pretty basic question that all of you GTO/math wizards can easily answer...
Let's say I bet $100 into a $100 pot on the river as a pure bluff. This means my bluff has to work 50% of the time, but my opponent just needs 33% equity to call. Does this mean that I need my opponent to fold 50% of his range or 66% of his range? Is folding X% of his range synonymous with folding X% of the time?
I would think that the answer is my opponent needs to fold 50% of the time for my bluff to be profitable, meaning at least 50% of his range has less than 33% equity against my range.
May 9, 2014 | 5:30 p.m.
Muck it for sure, the only thing we are hoping for is that villain's AK combos miss and we can somehow take the pot from him postflop, which will be high variance for sure and there are a lot of better hands to do that with than AQo.
Actually, given his sizing, I am probably folding a ton of my opening range here. Just not much flexibility to work postflop. You can probably call with something like 88-QQ , AK (sometimes AA/KK) and look to get to showdown with the weaker part of that range. Pretty much mucking everything else.
March 30, 2014 | 10:47 p.m.
18 left in Bovada 100K. My table seems really soft except the player to my right. I am currently 5th in chips and villain is 3rd. Folded to button and he minraises. What do you do here with 66? The BB has 10BB, payout structure is same for 10-18th place.
Thanks!
Feb. 24, 2014 | 3:09 p.m.
Also, if this were deep, I'm guessing we could c/c a flop like this vs betting and getting pushed off of our equity once villain raises.
April 20, 2013 | 12:04 a.m.
SB: : $558
BB: Hero: $1376.50
HJ: Big Blind: $2757.85
CO: UTG: $137.20
calls $6, UTGplus1 raises to $27, folds, raises to $93, folds, folds, UTGplus1 calls $66
April 19, 2013 | 8:22 p.m.
April 13, 2013 | 9:20 p.m.
So, this boils down to my question: I've played around with Odds Oracle but cannot figure out how to "see" the ranges that I am inputting. For example, when I input a top 20% range, where do I go to see what these hands look like, as you can do in pokerstove? It does me no good to see how I should be playing X% of hands in a situation but have no clue what X is.
April 13, 2013 | 6:21 p.m.
Why wouldn't you want to maximize your edge in a given game?
April 12, 2013 | 9:39 p.m.
As far as your statement about you 3betting a HAND that is better than their range, this is the wrong way to be thinking about it. Think range vs range. Most likely your 3bet range is extremely tight, like most midstakes live regs. I'm guessing maybe 3-4%. Open up poker stove and create a range that is closer to 8-9%, polarized. Obviously you want to be 3betting this range mostly IP vs a late opener etc. You can also 3bet UTG raisers to set up a nice dynamic. If you notice that the regs start adjusting and 4betting light (which is most likely not going to happen at midstakes live), than tighten back up and get paid off.
From my experience, using an aggro image at a live table can setup awesome situations that get you paid off light. That being said, think about your range and what flops you can bluff cbet when the regs call your 3bet OOP and you hold J8s etc.
April 11, 2013 | 7:22 p.m.
April 11, 2013 | 12:07 a.m.
I had sat and played villain for a while on one table and he was 3betting me around 40%. His 3bet sizing and the lack of 5-10 tables running made me pretty confident this was the same villain on the new table that he was sitting, waiting for action. FWIW, this is a small site, and he was sitting 6max tables alone.
Previously, he had 3bet and cbet flop and turn on Kc7c4 3o turn, and folded to my shove on the turn with half a stack behind. Also, in single raised pots IP, he was very transparent on the turn, checking back marginal/no show down hands.
This hand, was my first hand OTB, both stacks at $1K:
Hero (SB) dealt KhTc
Hero raises to $30
Villain 3bets to $90
Hero calls$60
Flop(Pot 180): QhTh2s
Villain bets $90, Hero calls
Turn (Pot 360): 7c
Villain bets $180, hero calls
River (Pot 720):6s
Villain Jams
Given villain tendencies, how often are you calling here? Do you fold on turn?
I am not great and doing quantitative analysis, but I would guess that villain's range here is quite wide and that he can be continuing aggression OOP being that it is easy for him to have AQ, KQ, and overpairs here. I just have a hard time putting exact numbers on it.
Also, the fact that he does not know that I am the same person from the previous table might make his shoving range on the river tighter. Thoughts?
Zach, thanks for the analysis. Do you think on the 8 turn you are more likely to get looked up for 3 streets as well? After I asked the question I thought for sure that would be your answer, but it may be due to the games I play in where villain is more likely to shut down with QQ on an 8 turn. Thanks!
June 21, 2014 | 1:42 p.m.