CleverNick

Could be both but I guess adding the live PLO pros will not change the overall number a lot?!

My "method" was taking a mix between avg. players online on PLO100 and higher (stats from Pokerscout.com) and assumption about how many percentage of those that was regular winners etc. and then an extrapolation of this number since they are not online all at once. Not very scientific but couldn't figure out a better way to estimate it.

Cbet turn; 2d is good for your range and you can bluff a lot if rivers should you get called.

Fold river; you don't have many JT in your turn checking range - but he has in his. 

You will get more precise answers giving more exact details about the hand and the villains, flops, stack sizes etc. - but conclusions would be the same in both examples:

Example 1) Depending on the ranges you give them you will have around 35-40% eq in the pot making this an easy shove w SPR=1. Even if the flop was suited you have a +EV shove vs. almost any reasonable ranges you could give them. Note that they often will fold a lot if their worst KK/QQ hands preflop.

Example 2) This will give you estimated EQ of 40-60% - again depending on villains range so again its not even close, just shove. However; some players always donks the middle of their range 4b pot (even winning regs) - making this a flop that he either totally missed or nailed. So you could consider checking behind and play turn ip vs. polar range. If this hand was 3 handed, you would most likely have to X(F) flop. 

QJ2s hits your hand and your squeezing range pretty well. Furthermore you have wrap blockers and it will be hard to play XC w only 3 nut outs, so I think you should cbet. Potting does not seem very balanced and indeed large mistake vs. stack-off ranges of say (30%!aa):qj,22,qq,jj,ah:hh:(k,t),akt9,kt:hh. You have max. 32% vs. 1 player (needing 32% if you pot) and slightly more vs. player 2 (he will stack of more light). Multiway you will have around 15% which would be a disaster.

I would just make standard c-bet of 65% and call it off vs. BTN but fold otherwise.

OddsOracle (http://propokertools.com/)

After calling your cbet I think you can put him on a range like (35%!aa):(dd,89j,kk,qq,jj,89t,689)!(7). He could of course have some floats and some slow played quads or bad 7s but I think the above range is representative. Vs. that range you are 42 on turn and you have no SD value so I think you should either BF or XF hoping for a free card. You are too deep to XR and you have capped your range too much and lacking SD value to XC.

I am leaning towards BF turn since his perceived equity with that range vs. your 2 barreling range is very low so you would have enough FE in that spot imo. You also have some equity should you get called.

I know this tool, but doesn't it just state the all-in variance? I thought the win-rate was before EV adjusting and the result was showing the variance based on the std dev?

I have no idea how to do it...

Anybody have links for articles about this or good estimations? 

I have been doing so for a long time (with good results). But is that enough to beat the higher limits, or must you practice another way of thinking in order to climb the limits? I mean multi-tabling you must practice a standard way of thinking right?

Lets say that you over a large sample have been set over setted way more often than the other way around but have been winning most of them. Then your Net is most likely higher than your EV and the "trueEV" must be somewhere in between. 

Or put it in another way; if you have a EV winrate of say 5bb over 100k hands, then what could be the range for a true-EV? Is there a formula?

@26:00 we have trips on a straightening river with Villains range pretty capped. Since we dont expect Villain to bet as a bluff very often nor raise since he cant rep a strong hand isnt this a good spot to bet super small with our trips and straights and our few bluffs to make him make a decision with his 9s, OPs and maybe even 6s? Maybe a bet around 25%? Even if he has a straight he cant really raise.

Hmm...I am not sure. Just seemed to me that would want to check some hands to check/call and if so I would want to have a small c/r range?

Yes that is the problem but what kind of hands would you XC and XR on this kind of turn?

Great reply. Thanks a lot :)

Let me know when you figure out if river is a vb ;)

I cr the turn for the reasons I stated in 1).

The river...hmmm...I was actually not sure whether to shove or cc. Depends a bit on the villain. I guess I just didn't see him calling with worse very often.

Do you think I should put the rest in on the river as a default?

Regarding your OO analysis it seems a bit off to me or am I misunderstanding something? 

You construct your range like this: 30%,ss,(44,JJ,99)...an so on which means top 30%, all spades in the deck, all 44 in the deck and so forth. The total range comes to 156833 hands which is about 75% of the deck given the flop and your hand.

Don't you mean all spades and sets WITHIN the top 30%? In that case the syntax would be 30%:(ss,44,JJ,99).

Running your hand against a range of 156833 seems a bit inaccurate to me.

Hi Andre, very nice video!

You conclude XR vs. wide Cb range in last hand is prior since it is +8bb but you never really estimated or calculated to EV for calling like he did. Is it just common sense that it is not +8bb to call there?

On the river you call since you don't estimate he has a flush often enough. But don't you think he would often Vb his straights here also (especially with the 4th club on the river)? Furthermore would he bluff here often enough given that the 4'th club on the river would make you call more?

not working on ipad :(

Thx for the replies so far.

About the hand: Villain was 3 betting wide - especially to BTN steals. Vs. my 70% UO steal I would assume this Villain to 3bet like 15%. This leans for me towards folding pre due despite the position and being deep. So a loose call even though he is definitely not a winning player. Also he c-bets a ton flop and turn so I think I have too much eq on flop to fold an too little on turn to raise.

At river he seemed at the time like the profile thats would polarize his cbetting, indicating to me that he has a bluff catcher. I decided to bet 50% and he called with weak AA, but looking back at it I am not sure betting here is correct. And furthermore IF I bet, I should definitely bet 75-ish like bogllor suggest.

My main question (the hand was just an excuse for asking - maybe better examples could have been found) was however: how should I think in these spots?

A) How do I get most value out of this unique situation (I want a call from worse vs. this villain)?

B) With my relatively capped range - what would be the air/vb ratio and hence the sizing (if betting)?

C) Other?

@bogglar

Wouldn't it ne very hard for me to bluff sometimes if I never valuebet thin here?

Regarding overall strategy I am not sure I understand - would you consider 2 size for bluffs and other for valuebets or?

Not working on ipad :(

http://forum.propokertools.com/forum.php

For me this would be an absolute standard XC. I would XC also naked 89 naked NutFD and a few other holdings, so I don't think you give you hand away at all. Also you have BD spades and you have the Kh blocker too.

CO could be stabbing with anything, most peoples XB range are +50% so he might freeze on turn taking a free card instead. X-decide most turns, you have a wide range so not easy to play for Villain either.