Charlie44333

I agree call pre fold flop. Normally I think the accepted theory is that you can profitably set mine when you payout is 20 x your investment. Here you gain extra 18.21 for 1.44 outlay (x12.64). But here I think you can profitably set mine as very high probability that villain will stack off.

I think the maths is of expected stack size something like this -

Call pre fold - 89.5% x 15.09 = 13.50.
Call pre hit set - hold up. 9.5% x 33.3 = 3.16
Call pre hit set loose 1% x 0 = 0

Expected stack size = 16.66.

If you raise and fold pre stack size will 15.09.

Please feel free to correct maths if wrong.

My first post to this site . For what's its worth I agree with previous comments. Very few bluffs in his range . Only poss bluffs is something like KJd/KTd on the times he barrels these. Has some showdown value hands that you beat on the river like AK/AJ , but very unlikely he would lead the river with these hands. Even with a set I think he would not just call the raise on the turn then lead the river. I think almost always this is a flush. Easy fold IMO.

The Qs one of the worst cards that could come on the river for you. So just as a note if he checks the riv. IMO you should check behind as I don't think you can bet for value.

Also because villain can have very few bluffs in his range IMO it is a bad bet by him. He should either bet small or check.