CairyHunts

Gotta pull through on the turn, jamming preferably for maximum FE. You have just over pot left on turn, so its a real easy shove. He's never folding river the way you played it now.

But yeah, in the storm its probably a bit too ambitious taking these lines as Oliver points out.

I would usually agree to this, but given the context of villain this might not be a profitable call. He's also raising turn into 2 players, rather than one.

As a frequent player on .fr sites i agree w/ mrSneeze more than anything else.

Don't mind the turnsizing at all. If this is the type of dinosaur villain that plays turns face up, he's so much more tailored towards sets and straights than anything else. Obviously there aren't that many combos floating around since we block a lot of sets, and suited 86 and j8 is around 8 combos, so like 12 combos in total.

However, if we include j8 and 86s in his range, we kinda should put in sooted Ax as wel, therefor A9 and A7 - and even AT are viable hands in his range that will probably raise turns too, coz he put you on AK.

I think overall this is a very good disciplined fold, given that villlain seems to be from the Mesozoic era, and we're never getting exploited by folding.

p.s. Pls put up your thread again on 2+2, i miss reading your adventure.

Nope, nope.

I think our hand plays exactly the same regardless of the Q river. Folding river is best thing to do here.

I think we might be overanalyzing here a bit. If we take a look at his turncall, we have to assume that he doesnt have the slightest clue what he's doing, range and equitywise. Also, we need to have sick history to ever profitably make a call here versus anyone, because our range still has a lot of weak onepair combos in it, that aren't jamming for value, but trying to force folds from Ax combos, Qx combos etcetera. Just because we aren't jamming for value, doesn't mean our entire range is constructed around airballs.

Why? He can leverage us bigtime w/ his stack. I'd gladly keep his range as wide as possible here tbh. We do get calls from Jx when we jam I suppose, but thats just a fraction of his range. He's more likely to spew off rivers when we check back turn. Just saying that jamming turn is prob the worst thing here, and yes jamming flop is probably low variance etc. I just think flatting flop c/r gets more value out of his entire range on turns and rivers.

I would default size bigger from SB w/ my entire range. I really don't mind his setmine here given you guys are like 40 beebs eff, and he's calling 2,2bb IP w/ a pair. There isn't much of a plan needed here at all post, just fit/fold. 

Whenever i get 3bet to this sizing from the sb, i feel obsessed to defend here given the general linearity of people's small 3bet sizing oop. It's pretty easy to get stacks in post most of the times to make up for our additional investment.

Apart from that I'm not a huge fan of 3betting light to UTG open from the sb, his defendrange cruses us, we have to fold to every 4bet, and we're not getting that many folds. Also if we look at stackdistribution his UTG range should be strong enough to r/c about 3 players who have less than/around 10bb. Lastly he's a 15/12 so i'm pretty sure his range for opening UTG is going to be tight as f* even amplified w all the reshovestacks on the table.

Im not sure why you want to jam turn here, if we decide to keep his range as wide as poss by floating his flop c/r then surely we want him to barrel river? Also by jamming turn we pretty much fold out everything we beat and get called only by better. Board isn't wet by any means, and his c/r flop range should be weighted towards Jx 'n some random bluffs - of which there's gonna be a bunch of K's in it because pple defend a lot of paint.

As played think jamming flop vs his c/r range isnt optimal, for reasons mentioned above, we're only getting value out of his bluffs on later streets, basically. Turn K is an annoying card because it fits his defending and bluffraise range + KJ pretty well, and w/ less than pot spr on turn him folding there w/ top pair is prob not gonna happen.

I dont think this particular villain (OPR click) is going to be thinking on any level tbf. His overbet jam on flop isn't polarized at all, just value w/ either strong(er) aces or Jx. I don't think we're ever going to get exploited here by folding, given we can pretty much pwn his ass in other spots. 

I'd just zzz fold there and move on.

I think there's a treshold somewhere in Nash where every hand becomes a profitable jam vs almost any opponent. However between 10 and 15 bigs actual shoveranges will fluctuate way more.

One of the biggest problems with shoveranges is how correct or incorrect people call. Thus shoving 92o can be fine versus some, but bad versus others. It all depends on what part of the nash spectrum they are.

Even if i was dealt a pair of ones, i'd ship them.

It's a +$ev fold. You might be able to timebank to ITM and call, if field is huge.

I think one of the biggest problems is his sizing, he nearly 4x the DL. I would expect him to flat a part of his weaker valuerange, and raise the mid/hi. I dont think he's ever folding to a shove, and we're never ever going to be 67% versus his range. It's too ambitious. He can pretty much flat all low-equity hands to realize equity on turns. Based on his stats he's more likely to be a 'caller' than a 'raiser', so imo we're going to be screwed here a lot, and flipping vs a bunch, dominating a few.

I just dont think a 18/10 player is the type of guy to just randomly 4x a flop like that without at least having a very strong range. To me that gap just shows how more call-heavy he will be post.

Usualy when sb coldcalls in such a spot i would probably already shake his hand and say GG.

Im almost always flatting here versus said villain.

Haven't done any ICM calc on this, but assuming he's gonna r/c here, and we're pretty much facing a flip versus his range (some we are drawing very thin versus), there being two 20bb stacks, isn't this almost a nEV fold? Purely from ICM perspective, i mean cEV wise its ok to GII...

We're not repping much OTR, and i think betting 155k is going to get the same amount of folds really. I like russian's checkback OTT, it allows you to do stupid things or vbet Tx/JJ on the river while he pretty much has the board locked up. SPR is pretty low, so he basically needs just one street.

I'm raising bb's lead in this spot, because we're setting up dynamics to get owned here so hard versus so many FD's, SD's, GS's, BDFD's w Gutters, PP's etcetera (with CO's overcall potential it's really ugly).

I dont think CO is the type of guy that is going to be squeezing here too light, but given you just flat the bb's lead - and bb being aggro, he might be doing this w 99/TT, KQss, Axss, 9t and other combos for diffrent reasons (protection, value, semi bluffs etc).

The hand pretty much becomes problematic by our flat. Im pretty unsure what i would do here, seems like ICM suicide too, vs his r/c range. It feels like we're flipping pretty much vs his r/c range, and calling his raise is pretty meh. Don't think we're getting too exploited tho by folding, icm wise.

Openshoving is something i rather wouldnt do because we fold out so much of their weaker range, basically allowing them to play better ranges for overcalling.

Exactly. Ty for saving me the time to write up something similar :)

Samples are really small. I play winamax a lot, in €10 donkaments restealfrequencies are pretty bad, so I don't quite get how you can possibly think they aren't going to be light. Ranges are probably all over the place, and although we have a strong 20bb edge over the remaining field, our equity edge (absolute handstrength) with 88 is probably going to be more than our 'relative' field edge.

Standard frenchie reshove-range is Ax+, KT+ QJ, 22 ~ QQ (KK+ weird 3bets etc), so we have around 60%, which is a pretty big equity edge w 20bb.

We can fold unexploitably to reshoves from people we have significant sampes on, but on this table you should basically r/c everybody, unless you spot some weird timingtells. Also we're sevenhanded ffs. Damn hard to get a better pair than 88.

edit: fold to 3bets, except for bb.

I understand your struggle, but you have to understand a couple of groundrules:

1) If you cant beat the fish, then you probably are a fish
2) Having profit doesn't make you a winning player longterm
3) Poker is a very complex game, what might look bad/fishy in your eyes, might in effect be a (very) good play.

I had this struggle years back (2006) when i was a novice, and saw people do stuff i just didn't understand and automatically assumed it was bad an fishy. As long as you are struggling to keep your head above the water this means you are not educated/good enough to simply state it's because of the fish. What you should really do is: Get better.

RIO is probably the best place to get better, just read a lot of threads, watch tons of videos and put in the necessary volume to get experienced. Talk about poker with better players. The most important thing probably is that you should be in 'the learning mode', for you to improve to an MTT beast.

GL sir!

King jack becomes less likely because we have a blocker, but i think you played the hand fine, though i would probably cbet flop and go on from there on out.

Basically what i mean is, we're 100bb deep, the RRR (risk reward ratio) is just not interesting enough. Esp given the position we're 3betting from, w possible overcalls etc. They're also way too sticky w their one pair hands.

I hate pretty much everything in this hand. It's mega spewy and totally unnecessary to 3barrel AI pre ante versus a capped utg range. Just fold pre, there's way too little incentive from a cEV POV pre ante. Also, being a .fr regular on both wina and stars, i know from first hand experience that frenchies never fold AQ in this spot.

Is our 6bet ever for value? We pretty much rep KK+ here, w 100% accuracy, so if he's ever turning a hand like QQ in a 5bet bluff, you're doing a great job in making him fold that hand.

I would flat 5bet and evaluate post. It's not like we're ever going to induce worse hands to 7bet rip imo.

I really have trouble defining whom you're aiming at. Whether they are fish, stations or just total spazmonkeys that click buttons, they cover our expenses longterm. Your post kinda tells me you are struggling beating some part of the 'horrible' players, which in turn means you probably aren't good enough (yet). Please don't take this offensive, I'm just reflecting on your statements.

When you don't know where you are at in the hand, this means that you are not properly defining someones range. Nothing else. Bad players get lucky, let them, it would be really annoying if they'd never win and quit poker.