Caantpayrent

i can see where you both are coming from, but i think as the general level of the standard poker player rises, then at some point its going to be too hard for new players to play, no ones going to play if they constantly get destroyed no fish at entry level means the end of that game, its the new blood that keeps everything alive

... Jo your right when you say people need to learn/improve or they lose, but thats just it, that's why at some point, the games will become unprofitable, there is a limit to what people can learn and process, and when we reach that point, then the game becomes a game of just moving chips across a table and paying some site a rake. i dont know though, its a combination of these two things where i feel that poker unless somthing changes then yeah they are heading down the same road as chess,

Sorry for the long reply, didnt even realize i had a reply....

As far as becoming unprofitable in the future, it seems rather straight forward, as each game becomes more and more 'solved', and the general level of players increases, then the gap between players just learning and the players who 'know' what the're doing increases, this in time will lead to the availability of fish drying up.....right now if someone said you could learn chess and play that for money not many people would take it, as its a solved game, with players who have a answer for everything, eventually....

i feel that online poker more than live, will fall under this trap, once its known as a game of skill and not luck then there's no point in playing, unless you can find someone worse than you, as far as which game maybe not the high high stakes games, but i can see any other game avoiding this trap...as say mid level stakes becomes to hard then the players will move lower hoping to fond 'fish', but then that will end up the same and so on and so on...until you have players that are by today's standards great sitting at micro stakes, its already happening, for every pro you can find, i bet you they know 20 players that 5 years ago were crushing at least 10/20 stakes but are now only grinding out online at 1/2 or 2/4

i hope you check this so we can talk this out, i wont wait so long without checking it next time....

Hey, so it comes down to whether or not he bluffs at this enough to make this a profitable call, i say that because, your hand as far as i know has no value anymore, its only good for catching a bluff..theres a possible straight, and the board is paired, your only holding AA so....his HJ raise doesnt really mean anything, could of been stealing could of been value...
flop:
well he doesn't have any sets, there's no way hes check calling a set on the flop, but he could be check/calling a king or a 2 or 3 card straight, when the K hits the turn him checking doesnt mean anything to me, he could be check raising, he could be checking cause he has nothing, so the 4 hits completes a few straights and he leads leads for $21, so he either has it or he doesn't, this will be a profitable call against some and a instant fold against others, you just gotta know how often they would do this....i should say that with out any reads id be more inclined to fold, as him floating the flop was probably unlikely....

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Hey, theres no rule of thumb that ive seen work for everyone, it honestly just a person by person case, it always means something just you need to know the person to figure it out...but to answer your question, the best way to depict if he's bluffing or not is to base it on past behaviors, different players will compensate differently...
because it literally could mean he super loves his hand so he's trying to talk you into calling (obvious i know but those players exists) or it could mean he hates his hand, making it look like he wants you to call so you fold...etc etc etc

so without knowing anything else about the guy your playing i actually think it would be a mistake to act on the information, just remember it of next time, and see if it lines up...maybe in a couple of sessions you'll be able to check fold, your trips all because he talked...

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Hey, basically id say this is a reads call, if he's the type to push you off your hand when you check then call, but your hand as it is has no value in raising, he'd fold his air, call his boats, he very rarely has your hand, as he would of gotten it in on the flop, it looks alot like he flopped top 2, so he raised to $9 for protection against your flush draws when you lobbed it back up he wasnt happy but called, turned the boat, oop checked and was probably check raising you when you fired a turn bet, you didn't so now he's trying to paid off either by your made flop hand which you 4 bet with orrrrr making it look like a bluff by potting it, so you'll call weaker than you should...

that's where your reads come into it, id say at this level hes not doing it very balanced, if you played for a while i think this would be an instant call or fold, as youd pick up on the hands hes doing this with but with out those reads id fold...his flopped set or most 2 pairs have you so its fold for me...cheers

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Hey, so when he lobbed it back to $114 what was your thinking? cause by that stage surely its either nuts or air no? so why not just 5bet it to $240, $250 something like that and if he 6bet shoves fold and save your 75bb's, to me its hard for him to 6 bet bluff, and when he does half his air has you beat on the flop so...fold it and save your $$$

Hey, So i dont suppose your playing with a hud or have and other reads? like how loose is he pre, how often does he cbets anything like that?

I think personally its a game flow decision, he could be semi bluffing with his pair +nfd, he could have middle set, he could have AAxx with nfd , decent wrap with or with flush draw he could have alot in this spot, its just one of those boards thats so hard to miss...

its definitely a little tricky without any other reads on the guy, he could be a player that you caught him bluffing not so long ago so he's only going to have teh goods here and hope you call again, he could be the type that will play the level, 'he caught me bluffing before', now's a good time to do it again, he'll give me more credit this time etc etc ....but in saying that when he pops it back to $159 i THINK (really not sure) but i think it gives less waiting to a wrap and maybe to a nfd with a pair..or a set, with a small flush draw, so in saying that id try and get as much in on the flop...

assuming that the double barrel that you caught him in before was a one off (and thats a big assumption), if your going to ship the river you may as well shove now, and hope he turns up his pair plus flush draw...his set etc, i don't think you have any fold equity other than him holding complete air, i might not be as experienced in this spot but i don't know if its even possible for him to be bluffing..

honestly your losing to him holding a 79 and beating his flush draws, sets, AAxx hands then theres the plair plus flush, 2 pair plus flush...with no reads and the fact that he has shown he can barrel light id say you get as much in on the flop if you like your flop calls, then on non flush turns id be getting it in, the 5 is not so good but i think there's more hands your beating then your losing to...hope it helped cause i know it made me think

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Hey, with no special dynamic, and the fact that you checked behind the turn, i can't see whats calling any river bet that hasn't got you beat, by betting id assume your mostly going to get calls from better hands and folds from worse ones, the one place you might get a fold is maybe like bottom 2, but id say unlikely as you'd checked behind the turn as well, but if you bets something like 65%+ you could maybe get him to throw away bottom 2, im not saying that's a profitable play i'm just saying for this one hand you probably could, but over all id say you check, if you know he's c-betting highish then in position you could semi bluff your JJ's on the turn, if he had a hand id assume he's going to continue and depending on his check call turn % just build a pot with him holding air most of the time....

once you know more about whats he's checking oop on the river you can start to value bet, but he might have flopped bottom 2 then just wanted to check it down...we don't know so we gotta check...

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so i get how its spewy pre, but i don't get how its not a fold.. why do we not give any % of diamond hands to the villain? if he's holding diamonds then we're roughly sitting on 8% to win, and i know that he wont have diamonds alot, but say 1 in 5? so 20%, but i think its more often cause he'll be more inclined to play hands like KKJ9hhdd or maybe AKJJhhdd or AKQQhhdd, i think he'd surely play his double suited high pairs...but 20% of the time we're just gifting away the rest of our stack...

sorry guys if im hounding over an issue but, if he pots it can we really ship with a the 5 high diamonds in our hand and if he only bets $12 or something that's not a shove how do we play turns? or did we just shove back over the top? if we just call and a non diamond 9 or higher and we have to fold id assume, so we'd lose that, but yeah how does this play out?

normally when i read points people have made i can understand why they are saying that, whether or not i agree that's one thing, but here i cant see why its not a fold, i can see why its a call if we KNOW he hasn't got diamonds but, we don't know this, so im super confused right now..

cheers guys and thanks

if nothing else the fact that most of the time on the turn you have the best hand (he never plays a flopped set like this), so by shoving now you get action from top 2 pair and bottom set when you shove middle set... and there small equity you get from the times he has your hand top2....if you shove and he turned his wrap then you may get a call, but by waiting to the river you only get called by hands that beat you and never by ones that dont, also if he turned a weak two pair with a gut shot or open ender then you'll get a call but once again only on the turn, once you get to the river he's folding his weak two pair and calling/shoving his straight.....

just to clear up, almost no set is checked oop on flop then followed up by a leading pot bet with no obvious draws to protect against, when by all means he had reason to believe you would continue the turn, so he could almost commit himself, by check raising the turn with his set...so i think that its very very unlikely he did this....

so equity gained by shoving turn, get called from weak two pair with straight draws, get called from big wrap, get called from top pair with a big wrap, you gain when he folds your hand, (top two no straight draws), and you gain equity when now they have reason to call with top two and bottom set.....

by letting the river hit, no missed wrap calls, no weak two pair calls, and if a 68910kA it more or less shuts you down, as you two pair has no value against anything that would shove, only good for catching a bluff, (ps a 6 maybe not he'd bet the flop with a low wrap, or at least not check/call, pot lead)

what did he end up having by the way??

you should be shoving the turn, if for nothing else balance, so when he check/calls the flop and pot leads the turn id almost never give credit for a set, he's not leading the turn with a flopped set, and if he did turn it why pot it when it was likely you'd continue on the turn, so on the turn where he pots it, he's either got top 2 (your hand), or a just two pair, he also could have a wrap, 8910j..and was being aggressive with his semi bluff, other than that he could of just floated the flop and decided to bluff the turn and when u called he was shutting down, but back to my original point he almost never has you beat on the turn so by shoving you could get a call form his wrap and you could get your hand to fold....so you get your profit form either of these situations

the other reason you should/could shove, is because by not shoving the turn then what are you shoving here?? id imagine sets or better?? so even if he in the future has a set of 2's if your only shoving a set even that has to fold...so over all the reasons you should shove the turn you may get a crying call from a wrap or you may find some equity from your hand folding, and it allows a set of 2's and your hand to call when you have a set in the future....also by shoving you can protect from rivers that make it impossible to get value from worse hands eg the A that ended up hitting

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to be honest id shove back over the top, if your going to 4bet call two pair with a gut shot is pretty decent, majority of his range is now AAxx KKxx possibly QQxx if he has such a high 3bet percentage add a flush draw to his weaker hands, and you have enough hands your beating to get it in profitably (i think)

the other option is to peel the flop and hope for a blank and shove nearly all turns that dont complete a flush.... same thing only if he's shoving with a flush now he's probably shoving on the turn with way less equity and if he's shoving with a strong over pair he's probably shoving on the turn....theonly exception is if a JKQA hit then u may be up against a turned set...so now that i have time to reflect if i went with this option id be shoving 9765432 that arent Diamonds....i can elaborate more if you want but i think i made my point....

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honestly with nothing known then for me i say its a fold, hes opening is wide enough that he has a decent amount of hands in his calling range that have hit this, he;s got his run down hands half of which are now two pair with redraws to the straight, his sets all 3 of which didn't want to get it in preflop, then there's the hands you can beat at the moment his wraps but its unlikely he's raising that, seeing as how we don't if he's aggressively semi bluffing or raising for protection....i think its a fold and next time play the hand with a bit of caution and see if we can learn how he would play this....with out reads your AA's to me have almost no hand value, just value in catching a bluff...

..in the future it may work out that this is a easy call, he could love to get his pair plus flush and get it in now, so peeling one makes the river easy but without knowing any of this then its a fold and wait for a more known spot...

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HI, firstly i cant say for 100% certainty that a higher stakes player is or isnt playing it this way, its unlikely but not 100%...so its hard to say, if the Villain is holding say top 2, set, etc then obviously the standard play for him is to raise and not make it easy for them to drawn out on, but you basically had it minus a few things, when he bets the turn on the completed flush, hes saying that hes got a flush basically iuf he had 2 pair then hes not betting for value, and at these low stakes i doubt he's turning his 2 pair into a bluff, as you get higher you'll need to get better reads on your opponent, (like how often does he turn his two pair into a bluff on 3 flush board etc).

back to what i was saying, when he bets the turn, he's either got a flush or doesnt, sets are out cause they raise, two pair is out cause it either raises the flop or if he's playing cautious then he's checking the turn, so betting is air or flush, (and yes id say one pair is no better than air in this situation), so when he bets the Jd, he's now doing one of two things, he's either bluffing or has the nuts, he could of had a hand like J2hhQ4dd, all you have to do is figure out would he have played his nuts like this....it depends on how raise happy this guy is.....it wouldn't take long to realise what he likes to do, if you figure out hes raising 2pair with the second nut flush before the paired board hits on the river then its a easy call/shove against this villain...

and to answer part 2)
reads, when he has it, does he just call in position and raise the river...or with his monsters does he like to raise, etc, how often is he turning his 2 pair hands into a bluff, or how often is he not raising the flop with sets, basic stuff like that makes rivers alot easier,

He might be a player that like to peel off the flop with a set and hope for a blank on the turn, didn't get one but wasn't ready to fold, might of been folding to a blank on the river...if he has these tendencies then its less of a call...etc etc.


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Hero...Checks (or bets relatively small),
overall id say pretty standard on the turn, but i'm not sure why you bet on the flop, i wouldn't but you did so.... maybe betting a little less on both streets, for more than anything just if you get raised you cant beat anything other than a bluff basically, so you want to make it cheaper to fold, and cheaper tp bluff in later situations.

If you were indeed to bet your normal size river bet. i cant actually think what would call that you have beat, considering you 3 barrelled it, so whats calling you down?? straight, (although its raising), a better 2 pair might fold so there's some value in that but other than that its just sets, but i cant see what sets are being played this way...so by betting your normal size you only get called by, a better 2 pair and some very weirdly played sets, everything else is folding or raising..

all that said, considering how he played it, when he checks a third time, the villain either has an over pair or is check raising. so depending on your reads, if he doesn't check raise all that much, (so most of the time when he hits his hands he leads etc) then i think you should try and bet small enough that his top top or over pair can call, as long as you can say if he has a straight hes not checking the river then your ok to bet small, somewhere in the neighborhood of 1/4 pot or possibly 1/5, the problem with this is that it could induce a bluff raise, so you need to know your opponent.

so i actually just changed my mind twice as i wrote this but considering by betting you could get some better 2 pairs to fold (maybe), and i'm assuming he's raising his sets i think its a instant small river bet, but if he seems to like his check raises then just show it down

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firstly unless i read it wrong u need to be folding the turn, um that said i think whether or not you call is purely based upon any reads you have on the villain, at these low levels the crazy maniacs will semi bluff barrel like this a decent amount of the time, with top top and the flush draw, in saying that players will bet like this to try and make it impossible for them to get drawn out on,....seeing as how we don't know this, it comes down to whats taking this line?? nothing for value you can beat so your jack high flush has no value as a hand, only has value in catching a bluff, personally if i wake up in this spot not knowing what sort of low stakes maniac im playing then im folding, but why call the turn? if your not calling the river, you hit the second best card you can hope for i guess then fold??...nope, so i guess in your shoes if your going to call the turn then u need to call the river, and hope he was a maniac with top set, top 2 etc and just decided if you had the flush then you had him, in saying that over all i wouldnt be calling that turn a lot of the time, (i never like to say never.)

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personally i think theres some value in a turn bet for value from a wrap or pair plus flush draw, but you do run the risk of ballooning the pot with what could end up being a marginal hand, plus if you get raised on the turn it really put you in a tough spot cause the number of hands that have you beat definitely outweighs the number of hands that u have beat, and if you were to bet $15 or around that (which is roughly the same as your flop bet then any raise is a shove
so whats shoving?? maybe pair plus flush, wrap plus flush... then sets maybe top 2 but i dont know about that one, i'm not sure if you want to but if you could work a small 2nd barrel into your game, maybe by making the size of the flop bet smaller, cause if you put out a $8 bet now it would it may entice a bluff raise, cause it would half turn your hand face up, in that you liked it on the flop but now your unsure... so maybe by making the flop bet smaller say $4, it would make the pot $17 and here you could bet $8 and then decide if he pots it for $41 (i hope thats right) but as you said he was passive i doubt he potting with alot that an over pair with a gut shot can beat....
in this situation i think someone that's getting it in isn't worried about your bet sizing so much (unless you could do something crazy like bet $2, and see what happens), but assuming in the majority of the time the villain probably has already made up their minds as soon as the turn hits, and your folding to a raise...i would say betting small say $10.25 (even tho it isnt all that small but any smaller and it would become a little clear that you are unsure) is the option, he can call with his top top, his wrap, his flush draw, but if he really is passive chances are he isn't raising.....if he does, id get a heavy waiting to set, definitely something that does want to draw out on them, the other option is check call the turn, check the river and fold to a completed flush or straight bet, or check, if they check and a blank hits then bet small for value, but over all id say bet smaller on the flop makes the turn bet smaller...makes the decision easier as its more affordable...

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