Brokenstars

piggy backing off Steve here,

Your WTSD (28) and W$SD (61) also indicate you're likely overfolding or being too tight throughout the game tree prior to getting to the river. 28 WTSD is on the lower end so you get to showdown not very often while you're still a bit tight preflop and then W$SD >55 is what I would consider "high". So, when you do get to the river you're winning far too often. This also likely indicates you're folding hands worth something otf/ott/otr.

For preflop, you're specifically too tight from the SB and BTN--35 and 36 RFI, respectively. If you take a look at your steal success for both these positions they are usually a bit high for R&C, so you're incentivized to open a bit wider than equilibrium here.

The article is correct. As long as the strategy is constant and does not adjust due to your deviations in frequencies, then everything stated is correct.

Poker journals are over yonder: https://www.runitonce.com/chatter/poker-journals/

3b and 4b values depend heavily on the constraints of the system (allowed sizings and stack depths). My HU preflop sim has 3b % of 27.9% and a 4b % of 8.4% out of all total hands (so not 8.4% 4b, but 4bing 8.4% of all possible combos).

The same things affect 6-max... so larger 3-bet sizings will lead to more 4-betting and conversely if the allowed 3-bet sizing is smaller, then there will be less 4-betting. OOP vs. 3-bets are going to be 4-betting around 15-24% ish again depending on those constraints. IP 4-bets quite a bit less.

I mean.... you're really not going to get a relevant sample though. Looking at someone's 4b % over 500 hands is going to do more harm than good. It'd be more useful to draw conclusions based on their hand choices for 4bing.

Sure, but are you going to get like 10k+ hands on these guys?

I'd just look at your positional 4b values.

First post here, really enjoy the blog and updates--so thank you! Best of luck with the move and hopefully it ends up being a good change of pace.

High wtsd here and reasonable wsd is likely combination of missing value bets/passivity postflop, strong range from preflop, and it being relatively low limits (2-5nl)--so overall aggression from opposition is also low.

I'd start by making sure your preflop stats are reasonable. Preflop stats like: RFI by position, 3-bet vs. position, Cold call (CC%), BB defense vs. RFI and sizing, etc.

Let's start by posting your RFI by position. Go to your positional ribbon and add the RFI (raise first in) stat and post those values.

I agree with Odin, folding flop seems okay since flop is 3-way, and certainly folding turn if you did call flop. Once you get to the river, the flush is there and villain bet flop 3-way and then continued to triple barrel and the most natural flop/turn bluffs (i.e. flush draws) complete on the river. It's unlikely anyone at your limits is bluffing here, and in fact the decision to jam with AK here is too thin even.

Bankroll management (BRM) is going to primarily be a function of winrate, standard deviation, and risk tolerance. As long as you have a winrate and an ability to reload you can be particularly aggressive with your shot taking and BRM. The entire purpose of BRM is to limit your "risk of ruin" - (RoR) to a value that you find reasonable or simply ~0. You can play around with the calculator found at: https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Input winrate/std dev and sample size and then under "variance in numbers" at the bottom you can take a look at the required bankroll for <5% RoR. This assumes winrate and standard deviation are constant... no dropping down stakes or reloading.

It does, but there are more cards in the IP range that have equity against A7 compared to 99. (Every 8x and 9x hand).

Hand strength of 99 is ~ of A7 on J73r

A7 has more equity vs JX hands/made hands compared to 99; improves to two pair on A (3 outs), and trips on 7 (2 outs)

99 only improves when a 9 turn comes (2 outs) and this would also have a bit of reverse implied odds as when 9 comes it would bring connectivity to the turn and also complete T8s straight

A7 blocks marginally more value (blocks AJ, AA, and 77)

A7 also benefits marginally more from protection/equity denial compared to 99

You'll find people tend to overfold and underraise in this configuration. You can run a filter in your database for players at your limit and take a look at how often they fold turn after not c-betting flop.

There are coaching listings on 2+2 (including my own) @ https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/290/coaches-amp-schools/

You only have pot odds of 33% if he is utilizing a pot sized bet. I don't see anything anywhere about specifically stating the size of the bet.

tbeckett if you were on the river with a bluff catcher and had precisely 20% equity and the bet sizing used by villain was such that your pot odds were 20%, then because your equity is equal to or greater than the pot odds you could call. This assumes your equity would not decrease due to rake or blocker effects. In this instance because pot odds = equity, the EV of such a call would be exactly 0.0000.

The sizing utilized by villain assuming he was only making a bet for you to have 20% pot odds would be a 33% bet size. (0.3333/(1.0000 + 0.3333 + 0.3333)). In this example, because your calls are effectively 0 EV (equity = exactly pot odds), then the frequency you should call would be calculated by making IP have his bluffs be 0 EV bets. This is done by calculating the frequency he needs you to fold when utilizing his bet size. In this example we've calculated his bet size as equal to 0.333 of the pot to give you 20% pot odds. This means when he bets 0.3333 he needs you to fold equal to or greater than (0.3333/(1.0000+0.3333)) = 25% of the time for him to auto profit with any bluff ignoring rake and blocker effects. As such, you would call with your bluff catchers 75% of the time.

To answer the original question, though. Steve is correct and his definition is good. Your equity is your share of the pot with your hand or range against a specific hand or range at any node in the game tree under the assumption that the rest of the hand is checked to showdown. As I said in one of the previous posts; you have equity, but you don't necessarily realize it all because there is betting going on in future nodes. Your equity is your pot share assuming you checked it all the way down. Your equity realization, is your EV/pot share divided by that value. It's basically stating what percentage of your equity do you actually get to realize in aggregate over all future nodes.

I look forward to your next review!

I think doing HH review for the community is great. I watched a decent bit of the recording, so thanks for putting it onto Youtube. This type of format is good, and I think overall would be a great boon for all low stakes and microstakes players to hear how players better than themselves are thinking about hands.

My main point of constructive feedback would be to attempt to keep the pace up, as there were many points during the review that really seemed very slow (taking 5+ minutes to just get to the flop or turn action).

I hope you do it again and that other coaches can host/share their thoughts on other hands. Thanks again and as always ~~ Good luck at the tables!

Yes, these would be good videos tbeckett I remember watching these from Steve Paul in the past.

Hope you're doing well Steve, cool to see you are still around :). I don't frequent this site often anymore.

There is a video by Cameron Couch, "constructing bb defense ranges". If I recall correctly, he does something like this (though its been 8 years since I watched it).

Your equity is only one part of the equation. You can overrealize or underrealize your equity. Some hands to tend to have better equity realization than other hands because they can and will be played aggressively. Lets say you're playing 6-max nlh and the btn opens to 2.5bb and you are in the BB. It's 1.5bb to call and play for a 5.5bb pot, so pot odds are 1.5bb/5.5bb... and therefore you need equity = or greater than 1.5/5.5. However, you need equity > 1.5/5.5 because you're not going to realize all your equity. A lot of flops you will check and fold, so you will not see the turn or the river.

Solvers these days can calculate equity realization, which is basically just your pot share (EV) divided by your equity. This is because all the EVs are known. If you have PIOsolver or some other solving software you can get a decent idea of what a reasonable equity realization is going to be (0.8-0.9 would be reasonable approximation depending on your skill level compared to opponent). So, your equity to call would need to be 0.9*(equity of hand/call) = > pot odds.

You can likely find some older pre-solver-era videos on runitonce that attempt to do these calculations/estimations. They will be from like ~2014-2016.

Calculate pot odds, estimate equity of hand vs. RFI range, and estimate equity realization.

Seems silly to want to attempt to figure it out when software is available to do it for you relatively quickly and at high accuracy, though.

You're converting a ratio to a percentage. I strongly prefer the % because it's much easier to understand (for me).

There is a lot of variance in poker and your downswings will be primarily governed by your winrate and standard deviation. A lower winrate and/or higher standard deviation will yield a higher probability along with larger potential downswings.

You can play around with the online poker variance calculator found on Primedope.

https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

You'll want to post more relevant stats. Right click in your position ribbon and configure report and add the following stats and post a screenshot of them. Also, include the aggregate values (so the averages at the bottom--don't cut those off).

Raised first in (RFI)
Steal Success (Stole)

3Bet vs EP
3Bet vs MP
3Bet vs CO
3Bet vs BTN
Cold Call (CC%)

BB vs SB Call
BB vs SB Fold
BB vs SB 3B

Call vs BTN Open
Fold vs BTN Open

Fold to PF 3Bet After Raise (2Bet PF & Fold)
Fold to PF 3Bet After Raise IP
Fold to PF 3Bet After Raise OOP

WWSF
WTSD
WSD
River Call Efficiency

Welcome back.

I don't think the 3b is bad, but you could likely size it a bit larger. Both the flop and the turn are actually not great cards for you as BTN can have all the flopped sets, lots of pair + draw type combos (98s/87s/76s/66 etc.) and floats the flop vs. your sizing with the vast majority of his AX. You should likely either check flop or check turn and size up pre if you're opting to 3b.

I agree with Steve. You could also size up preflop since people tend to over call and under 4b after RFI from UTG.

I did consider it. I wouldn't make deviations based on the fact they rake preflop at this moment in time.

Here is a preflop sim vs. a CO RFI of 27.7% and 2.5bb sizing. Rake is allowed preflop and rake is 5% capped at 3bb and here is SB response: