Raise Twice

mine are good now as well

plus 1

I've managed to keep the tilt monkey at bay a couple sessions in a row. I wrestled from kindergarten through college and for about the last ten years of that I had a very set prematch routine. I'm going to steal a couple parts of that for my poker routine and hopefully I can trick my brain into performance mode. Wake up at 11, get a rock climbing session in, then off to the casino to get some other people's hard earned money, it's a hard way to make an easy living.

haha, thanks ddog, making 3 little birds my pandora grind station for the night

Plus another on the limit holdem, I play frequently on Bovada, and if people are studying for mixed games I think it's easier to sit down and work on a specific game rather than watch a video of a mixed game and try to work on everything. RIO is already by far the best place to learn most games, so if you were trying to get new people to sign up or switch their training site preference, targeting some of the areas where other sites have more videos seems like a good option.

I guess it is going to be dependent on how often he raises the flop or turn with his sets. With two diamonds on board, any river A,2,6 or 7 making a one card straight possible, and our second barrel making our range very overpair heavy I think that most villains are going to raise a very high percentage of their sets on the turn and leave them with mostly SD value type hands and draws with their call. We'll be indifferent to calling and folding at 2.4 value combos for every bluff. So if they're always calling 66(6), 67s(3),56s(3),77(3),maybe (2) of the 9 possible flopped sets to account for the times they fold pre or raise the flop or turn, maybe (1) 97s, A6dd(1), 68dd(1) that would give villain 20 value combos. So of the missed diamonds possible would be JT, QT, KT, AT, QJ, KJ, AJ, KQ, A8, maybe A2, A3, A4, A7, AQ if he flats these pre and doesn't raise at another point. A lot of the two overs and nut diamonds I would think put in a raise on the flop though.

In summary, I think we need to decide how much of villain's value range will be played in this way and how many of his possible bluffs get to the river this way and how many of those they will choose to bluff, if that number is greater than 2.4 value combos for every bluff we should fold our bluff catchers (overpairs), and if that number is less than 2.4 value combos per bluff our overpairs should show a profit calling the river. With no reads, trying to decide what his range is really made up of at this point is kind of a guessing game though.

Seems unlikely we're going to get value from a nine at this point, and we're probably not getting two pair to fold. I'd check river to bluff catch missed diamonds, and showdown a winner against TT, 88, or 9x. My range would have all the overpairs, Ax of diamonds. The only 6x I would have and want to shove would be a6s, 56s, and 67s, and I'm not 3 betting any of those 100% from the bb. So I guess I'd shove all my 6x and pick a couple combos of missed diamonds to bluff.

I can't see villain bluffing here, your hand looks like exactly what it is, and I doubt he's expecting you to fold. I think they've got a queen almost always, don't even think AA would typically jam.

0 = .9(-.75x)+.1(2.5x)+(1-x)1
You're right, I missed an x.
I think this one is better, hopefully someone can confirm this.
29.8% folds for 10% equity
9.1% folds for 20% equity

There might be a better way to write this out, but:
for 10% equity
Where x is their breakeven point for calling
0 = .9(-.75x)+.1(2.5)+(1-x)
when you solve for x you find out that if villain calls 74.6% or folds 25.4% our semi bluff breaks even.
The first part of the equation accounts for the times when he calls and we lost, the second accounts for the times when he calls and we win, and the third for the times that our bluff works. If you want to solve for 20 percent equity just change the .9 in the first part to .8 and the .1 in the second part to .2.

Hope this explanation is worded semi clearly.

cheers