Billroy

Not a ton of info to go off of here. When that is the case- I try to answer the question of "why". A flat of your c-bet......why? Perhaps a draw? With K10? While it certainly gives an explanation to his actions- I have a tough time believing that he flopped OE and hit the turn. And for him to bet that large on turn goes against K10 being the case. So I move to the next possibility- he had some sort of AQ/AJ and once he hits his kicker he is forced to bet out any FD/SD he may be up against.

Sucks to fold- but it might be the most prudent action.

You have no indication if of where Villain is at; his full range is in play. You have an opportunity to close the action with a gutty to the nuts. I think a check behind is the appropriate move.

It seems as if your bet-sizing screamed out "button steal". Both your raise and 4bet were minimal. Was this done purposefully- to get villain to react to your perceived steal? I feel that you need to make your steal appear just like any of your button openings. I know it makes it a bit more pricey to do it this way, but the reward is well worth it.

I could see a call here. If she is willing to donk on the flop- one could assume she is willing to get broke with 1 pair. She is putting her money in the pot with no real sense of what she's up against. She knows her hand and thats all she needs to know. Might as well let her walk blindly.

This is a tough spot. A passive player makes a super strong pf play. Follows it up with some interesting (read: strange) postflop bet sizing. I feel like his pf holdings can only be AK-AA.

It's a super tough fold. But if you are folding a winner and villain got out of like with a top-top type hand, then he will do it again and you can punish him at that time.

My decision rests ultimately with the fact that villain is passive taking some greedy then agressive lines.

i think it is super difficult to have this discussion without some more info. I completely understand the "its not worth getting yourself in a tough spot over 3bb" theory. But when you look at this scenario for what it is- " an opponent (who has been deemed a "rec-player" who the OP, who he feels might barrel any turn and/or river) that made it 2.5bb to go pf. I believe it matters a whole lot less what his holdings are as opposed to the fact that he is going to miss the flop more often than not. Vegan, you said it yourself, AQ is a strong hand. A strong had that in most cases did not get any weaker vs. villain with this flop.

My position is that if you are going to fold to a c-bet each time you missed a flop; then you have a bit of a leak that needs attention. Making it 2.5bb to go from UTG tells me that either his hand has some perceived strength or that he made it that small in hopes of a 4-bet opportunity. Either way, IMO a 3-bet will go a lot further to sifting through the smoke than flatting an hoping for the best.

it just appears that your flop fold might be without any merit. What purpose is the pf call if you intended to fold to a c-bet? Considering the fact that the c-bet is one of the most basic of plays- I feel that if your were going to fold a dry flop that you miss- then your pf flat is wasted.