BarracudaNL

Definitely the right play. Bryn can be much wider than 20% here, given that he is the chip leader and he can put a lot of pressure on Mikita. I would imagine Bryn is raising more like 40-50% here. Mikita is just somewhat unlucky to be flipping.

There are subtle changes. With bigger stacks behind, our whole range gains a bit of EV, because we can leverage the two bigger stacks against each other. For instance, when we jam 17bb on the button, a 40bb small blind has a less comfortable call with a 40bb big stack behind, forcing him to play tighter, and gaining us some EV on shoving. Similarly, a 40bb small blind has more difficulty jamming over our opens with a 40bb big stack in the big blind behind, and thus needs to do more flatting or small three-betting, also gaining us some EV on minraising. So, with bigger stacks behind, you should lean slightly more towards aggression, although the changes you'll make will be minimal.

I'm noticing quite some people here arguing Snowie is wrong. While Snowie is imperfect due to its sizing limitations and because we can observe oddities in spots it has not trained much, it tends to produce quite similar results to Pio / Monker in spots that it has come across frequently, and I would assume this is one of them.

So I'd be curious if anyone here can give me some insight as to why Snowie is given so little credit for its recommendation for coldcalling here.

Many hands here are really nice cold calls. Think of hands like 88-TT, ATs-AQs, KQs, maybe some more hands like AQo and KJs depending on stack sizes, antes, and sizings. These hands play nicely as coldcalls because they dominate the SB's three-bet range a lot and play fine multiway, but they tend to be dominated themselves once you 4bet and get action.

I would imagine jamming here is profitable, but why not raise smaller and take a flop in position against weaker players who will often call with dominated hands?

Hey pokerinlondon: what SPR did you utilize for your sims? The key reason to bet big on these flops is to get lots of money in with our more polarized range against Villain's more capped range. At 5 SPR, this is not a big consideration as we can still get it in with bigger sizings on turn and river. At 15 SPR, betting small on the flop no longer gets the money in, so the large flop sizing starts gaining a lot more EV.

Call and chop the pot because there are two 3s in the deck. ;)

Assuming one of the other flop cards was a spade: you will want to play for stacks here. While you can fold here more than usual, folding this means you are basically folding 90% of your range, and that is too exploitable. You have good equity in this pot, and he does not need to be bluffing much for you to have 50% against his range.

Don't forget also that if you win this hand, you will be chip leader, meaning you have quite a bit of potential future equity that compensates for this poor ICM spot. And you don't even bust if you lose.

Check-jamming flop is also totally reasonable if you think he is out of line often enough.

I think all lines are reasonable, but I'd not be thrilled to get lots of money in on this board. You probably want to check at least one of the three streets, depending on the runout.

On the turn, Villain has quite some combos of straights (QJs), sets (TT,99), and two pair (T9s, KTs). But Villain also has a bunch of middling hands (KQs, KJs, JJ, ATs, QTs) and flush draws, and occasionally AQ/AJ gutshots. Against that range, you can probably mix checking or bet with AA.

Whether or not you can go for value on the river depends on the river card.

It's a very weird line by Villain. Live I feel like you may run into Q8/J8/88/T9 more than you should. But with people like your opponent it can really mean anything.

Your hand is underrepped, so I am inclined to call. But really, it is a pretty close spot, so it won't be a big mistake either way.

I think we should just check this. If you do want to bet, betting smaller here is preferable because we can still get some value from overcards. Your sizing folds out everything that you beat, which is not typically what you want to achieve, even when betting for protection.

I also think three-betting flop is an option here to punish draws and thin check-raises. Villain doesn't have many nut combinations.

As played, I think it is an easy calldown. If I were Villain and I raised AJ on the flop, I think I am barreling both turn and river, given that there are many potential underpairs and AK that can call us light. I think with AA beat some value hands, so I'd not wonder about this call too much, even if villain shows up with the occasional JJ / 66 / 3cxc.

Preflop is fine, although you may want to make it a little bigger given that there's a caller in the middle and you are out of position.

The flop, once you check and he bets, is a far ahead / far behind spot. Check-calling is much better than check-raising.

Small pocket pairs and suited connectors have quite substantial reverse implied odds as well at higher stack sizes (getting the bottom end of flush over flush or set over set). Opening 87s or 66 UTG is near 0EV at 100BB and at 30BB alike if my recollections of my solver work are correct.

But I'm open to being proven wrong.

Of course it matters! Making +EV plays just means you are maximizing the chips you win.

Now it is true that you also want to avoid getting knocked out, and this means you make a few adjustments in your play, especially when getting close to the bubble or on the final table. So you take a few less risks in these situations.

But on the whole, you want to make as many chips as possible so that when you lose an 80-20 you have the best chance of still having chips.

If you have an edge, use your rebuy at the start. You want to cover the weakest players at the table as early as possible.

One exception: if there is an add-on possibility and it is cheaper than the rebuy, then do not use your rebuy.

Hi Pete. I don't think this is a particularly good spot to 4bet. Both you and the big blind should be playing tight ranges, and the big blind should be fairly polarized, so getting it in with AKs here is just too thin (and if that's the case you shouldn't want to 4bet). There are times to 4bet AKs for value/protection, but that is usually when facing looser ranges or when out of position.

As played, you are getting 2:1. If your opponent has QQ or AK or random trash here ever, you have to call.

I think you played the hand just fine. Turn and river are completely standard, flop you can go either way. Your hand was never great, so going passive is fine.

Looks good!

I don't have a preflop ICM solver, so I'm not 100% certain it is a shove, and I'm open to being proven wrong. However, my excessive notes on high rollers suggest it is within the realm of reason to reshove here. 88 is typically the type of hand that loses a lot of postflop value in high-pressure ICM situations, while Villain should be very tight in calling reshoves. (I'm not really sure if the AQo call off here is correct.)

Villain tendencies here make the case for reshoving substantially stronger.

Your hand history shows no antes, but I assume they were in play?

(If yes to antes, then this shove to me seems good.)

MonkerGuy.com. There may be other places that I'm unaware of.

Warning: expensive. In my opinion not worth it for anyone but fulltime MTT pros.

My UTG range would be approximately 77+, A8s+, A5s, AJo+, KTs+, KQo, QTs+, JTs, T9s. So slightly heavier in suits / high cards.

Assuming the 3-bet is not absurdly large, you pretty much have to call regardless of position.

If you are losing money on these calls (but how do you really know this without tracking?) then that could be bad luck or you may be making some mistakes postflop.

Call. We are ahead of standard ranges, Villain's overpairs should primarily 3-bet smaller. We are much better than a flip.

I click the call button. We rarely have a Queen, and Villain knows it.

"Right i did that since i think i have an edge on micros."

That's a reason for opening looser, not tighter. You can beat them postflop!

" if I open A2s in UTG+2, Im opening every suited ace, tons of suited connectors, all the pairs, etc"

Nope! A2s is a way stronger open than 44 or 76s. Less likely to be 3bet & more likely to make the nuts. You are undervaluing suited Aces!

" I opening A4s in UTG+2 would be dominated by all calling aces from BU for ex."

Yup. But that's not as much of a problem as you seem to think it is! Just play more careful when you flop an Ace and bluff at some frequency when you don't.

You'll face Axss and Axdd at some frequency, but it is kind of hard for him to bluff many combos here. I also fold here most of the time.

Stack sizes don't really affect ranges all that much. The shorter you get, the more of your range becomes a shove instead of a minraise, but there is not much difference in the hands you are supposed to play.

As far as I'm aware, ranges that tell you when to shove vs. when to minraise are not available for free.

Opening sizes seem fine to me, except in the small blind, where I'd go substantially looser. Regarding ranges: you can be much looser; you are undervaluing suited hands a lot. (You should for instance be opening A2s as early as UTG+2.)

The claim that you need to open for a smaller sizing to make opponents' 3bets less profitable is not true.

Every sizing you make in poker should be to extract the most possible value from your opponent's range. You do that by putting most of your opponent's range in a difficult (0EV) spot.

The theoretical explanation for this is this:

If the bulk of your opponent's hands has a -EV call:

• Your value hands should size down to get more calls;
• Your bluffs should size down to get the same fold equity with less risk;

Likewise, if the bulk of your opponent's hands has a +EV call:

• Your value hands should size up to make more money;
• Your bluffs should size up to get fold equity.

So strategy tends towards the sizing that puts most of your opponent's range in a tough spot.

Opening to a smaller sizing preflop is typically better, not because it makes three-bets less profitable, but because it puts most of your opponents' ranges (particularly the big blinds') in a tough spot. That's how you get at the same time the best value for your bluffs and the best value for your strong hands.