BCRUNGOOD

I actually quite liked your explanation and thought you were pretty spot on here

That's correct you may find some false positives when comparing results in PIO or other solvers but the results from using HRC or ICMizer are probably wildly inaccurate for the spot you are looking to explore.

I think having opinions in these spots that are not based in math are often short sighted and can be a wall for improvement. If you can show database samples or multi-player solver simulations you will get a much more accurate picture than having an opinion on a spot that most people play in a different fashion. Since the sample for these spots will be non-existent in your DB and many others as well that will not end up being a good metric, multi-play solvers are currently pretty limited so it more comes down to doing rough math looking at an expected equity realization vs 1, 2, and 3 players with certain hands against certain ranges and considering the fact that we get squeezed behind at a certain % and lose that equity in the pot which decreases some of our EV although he was so short with the A8s hand he probably has to just call it off but I didn't run the spot.

This is a misconception that I see people make from time to time. No HRC does not give you an accurate picture of what you should VPIP here as it lets you always realize 100% of your equity since it treats the hand as checked down (you can test this by looking at a BB defense vs a min raise with antes, HRC will never fold when you are in BB, PIO will fold some % of the time). PIO would also not give you an accurate picture because it only accounts for HU situations. Using either of these methods would give you EV calculations that are not accurate.

This is not to say the A5s or A8s flats are not +EV as they most likely are fine flats that a lot of people don't make but can't simply be quantified by throwing in HRC or PIO.

38 mins you say his flat is pretty bad with QJo. He should definitely vpip, I don't think it's terrible just maybe based on the pressure he can put on you he has a higher ev play by 3betting.

23:53. Do you think the EV of a shove with AJo is higher than the EV of a 3b/f. If so would you mind modeling that.

25:30 How are you proceeding against a 4bet here. Seems like a disastrous spot to get it in.

Once he puts in a raise there is almost no person playing these stakes, even weaker players in these fields, that won't recognize that Apotheosis is never folding here. Also you would never cib with your bluffs here OOP either and with this kind of ICM you wouldn't want to cib anyway and let him peel properly with Ax for an amazing price. Just doesn't make sense to put in 750k+ and fold with 1.2 million behind or something like that.

Seth the sound is pretty bad it sounds like you are recording this thing in a cave.

Agree with everything you have said. Thanks for the clarification.

34:04 you open ATs and 82s who is the chipleader folds the BB, you say he shouldn't be defending. Are you saying this because of ICM considerations or are you saying he shouldn't be defending this in general vs your range from EP? He should be making enough money with anything suited vs your 15%+ opening range when antes are in play. Can you please show some math on why you think this is losing? PIO shows it as a pretty easy defend.

34:38 63o is close vs a BTN open, PIO would have us defending vs most button opens but this hand will create a ton of variance, 62o clear fold, 64o clear call. I think given it's the FT 63o is a clear fold here.

35:14 you defend 37s and call it close. I think you have a pretty easy defend with anything suited here.

Real interested in your thoughts on why you think these suited hands are close or bad defends.

2:30 What do you think checking the river against a bunch of players as I feel a lot of players who c-bet too wide on the flop will just feel obligated to bluff river with ATC and will be way overbluffing river.

You can lock multiple nodes on PIO up to the points you want to evaluate though and then get a full range construction vs those strategies. So in your example you could lock the assumed strategy he was playing preflop and on flop before you made your turn decision of raising A8o to see what combos you can call/raise/fold. I would think PIO would do an excellent job of giving you solid range construction given your assumptions and then river would just come down to assumptions on how he plays river and if you have correct price to call as you don't think he is anywhere near equilibrium at this point. Or even see what his equilibrium looks like for bluffs based on his assumed strategy up until that point of the hand where he shoves river.

Ben in your first PIO model where you mentioned a bunch of his turn bets were converging out I believe that was the case and they show up at almost no frequency because when allowing him to bet a small flop sizing I believe if you look back PIO will have him betting most those hands on flop near 100% which won't allow him to get to the turn with a check flop and delay cbet turn line.

I'm wondering why you prefer CREV which feels like way more time consuming to set up and easier to make mistakes when setting up a model then using PIO with node locking function to find EVs based on strategies that sway from equilibrium?

Please finally set an industry standard of making the rake appropriate to the game. I.E. slow long level tourneys 10%, reg speeds 8%, turbos 6%, hypers 4%. Something that makes sense and has a direct correlation with the amount of time the tournament and play is actually hogging resources on the server instead of the money grab most sites go for. Also please do not become a heavy psko site, keep the gimmick stuff limited.

5:45-6:45 you mention that pot was $2.50 and with rake it ended up at $2.12, it actually was $2.25 pre and so the rake was 13 cents. Still a 5.78% rake, how much are you taking out of your preflop ranges because of this?

I think we just don't have enough bluff combos in order to make Qx indifferent to calling. I think Q9 or worse should just be folding vs our lead. We can bluff Js9s, 8s9s, 7s8s and I guess you are assuming we need to turn all our KJ hands into bluffs at very high frequency in order to make someone with Qx want to call? We don't block any spade combos big blind can peel with and it's a good spot for him to consider bluffing with those combos as he can still have full houses and straights in his range as well. Also we give IP player the chance to grow a pair and make a bluff as well. I think it's a reasonable spot for a x/r and x/c range given we can create EV by allowing someone to bluff but maybe i'm off base and you have enough bluff combos and think the field will hero Q9 or worse here a large portion of the time.

15:30 you say DJ should bet but what bluffs does he have to get called by worse hands and what leads you to believe the EV of betting is higher than the EV of allowing someone to rep the T?

20:00 you stab flop and get a pretty decent card to consider going for 3. Are you going for 3 here if ICM wasn't a factor or would you be checking back turn in this spot quite a bit?

Definitely have a 200z table running on the side for live play. Any chance you'll do some review of the 100-200 8 game running lately?

Top MTT player with a background in math to make a video on edges needed to make a shove /call a shove based on different stack depths and distributions and winrates. Maybe Sam Greenwood would be a good candidate for this or Apotheosis.

One is pro poker tools Odds Oracle.

Great series. Keep doing NLHE content. Would you mind sharing your excel sheet?

Zach,

I think one issue with your analysis of the 76s hand when you don't bet is that you show rightfully so that we lose $30 of EV with 76s since the best response is to liberally raise vs your c-bet strategy denying you equity. After spending some time with PIO and node locking you quickly realize that c-bet strategies can often be as high or higher EV against opponents that don't correctly exploit you for having a wide c-betting range here and not raising at a large frequency. I think it's important to node lock what you think his response will be (even if we think he will raise quite a bit but not anywhere near 40%) vs your c-bet as I think even times you find that the most aggro of players in spots don't even employ as heavily as a raise strat as PIO suggests. The cool thing about this analysis is that you now know if the tables were flipped you can just liberally raise vs someone that c-bets this spot wide (falls in line with a lot of live cash game players and MTT players).

I ran pretty much the exact simulation as you did where I got 143 for OOP Equity and then changed his raising strat to raising this board 15% of the time and you see that it goes back up into the 170s.

https://gyazo.com/d3b9d4536466376f02041d196ac6eb36

Here is the raise strat I was using which for some players which is actually quite a liberal raising range in their mind.

https://gyazo.com/98548d10036dd1f37342cefdd0fcce62

Probably should of waited to comment, but i'll leave it anyway. Looks like this is part 2 :)

26:30 It seems really hard for you to have a bluff on the river with your AA hand, you x/r 4th street with 9s4h showing and unless you are just clicking buttons when he shows two diamonds I think it's pretty apparent you have a hand at this point. The worst hand you would have here is probably something like Ah4h9h9s or a pair bigger than 99 in the hole. I think that makes it easy for Isildur to fold anything worse than two pair? Maybe he pays you off with Tens or better but you would kind of need to be turning a pair of nines into a bluff at that point. It feels like a spot where you only get called by better or raised by a flush so I think checking is the play here and then you have to decide if he just turns flush draws or weak 1 pairs into bluffs enough to call.

Would be interested if some better stud players could comment on raising 4th vs raising 5th

What's the name of this 2-7 calculator you are using?

Don't you think that river raise at 14:00 by bubman is terrible vs your range of hands that x/r the flop? Also don't you think vs your flop x/r 3 handed here it's a pretty easy turn fold with a straight draw on a paired board where you or the other player in the hand can easily be drawing at the flush or you can already be full.

Also minute 24 with the A9o I think he turns his flush draws into bluffs on the river and might not be raising those on you on flop, maybe peeling stuff with backdoor flush draws especially. I expect he raises with you all pairs at least some frequency of the time on the flop or by the turn as well so I think given the odds you win enough here to x/c the river with A9o

A2o-A8o, are you showing high win rates by 3-betting SB with those hands. I'd be interested in seeing your results with those specific hands.

Minute 34: Belkin is a reg if I recall correctly. T5o? What is going on here raise button and b/c flop raise?

Minute 37: value bet feels far too thin, even if we wanted to go down into our 6x range I don't think we can use 67. Maybe 77 is a clear bet even though it's not in your preflop peel range, should analyze that one.

Minute 41:30 It seems like a big mistake to not raise turn with KQo on this board, he can definitely have draws at this point and it feels mandatory to get that extra bet in if he doesn't follow through 100% of the time on the river with his bluffs.

Keep them coming

I'm taking it you mean JNandez and Nick. Who is the essential coach with a twitch channel? Bringing on Tonkaaaa and JCarver as coaches would probably boost subs a decent amount.

What do you find the best tools for off the tables LHE work? Do you put much time into using the Limit portion of PioSolver or do you find certain issues with it? Also do you find playing against the LHE bots helps improve your game or learn, if so which ones?

Thanks for your time.

Would you mind sharing this excel sheet.