AllinAMar

It is +EV... In general, if Jnandez is 3bet by a tight 3 better who has mostly AAxx and other high card rundowns and then another player cold 4bets, signaling they too most likely have AAxx or other high cards, then Jnandez knows the villains are blocking eachothers outs, while his own J875ds hand is likely to be extremely live because none of his outs are blocked, which is why it was no surprise to see how high is equity was. Even if Jnandez was up against AAxx and AKQTss instead, he would have still been best with ~43% equity, while AAxx would be 2nd best with ~34% equity, AKQTss with ~23%

Villain only has to call $123 to win $435, if it was deeper it would have been a great time to raise what looks like it might be a weak blocking bet, but getting 3.5:1 villain can be wrong nearly 4 out 5 times and still breakeven on a call.

I like the flop bet, but thats because I don't think your hand is strong enough to handle a x/raise and even if you hit on the turn like you did, you might not be good anyways, so I bet fold flop to a x/raise, unless you have a read that Villain x/raises a lot of bluffs and you are willing to call down.

After VIllain calls and donks big on turn and weak bets a paired river it looks like a K or A high flush, but as mentioned above, villain bets enough to commit himself vs. a river raise IMO.

1. For Villain to call your flop x/r he likely has various stronger wraps without a flush draw (TJQ, 7TJ, TJ), weaker straight draws + weak fd (QJ+weak ss, KsQTs, 7T+weak ss, 67+weak ss), bottom set (say 1/2 the time), bottom 2 pair (say 1/2 the time) and top and bottom pair (although less likely with your blockers).

2. His Jam range vs check (SPR is just over 1) would be all the straights, even the weak ones because he'd want to protect vs. the likely nfd or sets you x/r'd flop with.

Even against that range you are 50% on the turn (he likely has some hh that were bdfd's on the flop with straight draws, so I included those.. probably incorrectly, please correct the syntax if it needs it) , so I would never be x/folding turn, but it might even make sense to jam yourself here and fold out the sets and heart draws if you're always calling here anyways.

As far as the range construction for x/r'ing this flop, if you don't 3bet or flat a lot out of the SB pre, then you could have everything from top set to 2-2 wraps and nfds here, so you can add more x/r bluffs as well if you would be strong here often.

I like a lead over a flop x/r, but those would be my first 2 choices. I like the lead most, for the reasons note above.

A x/r is decent on the flop since it has the most immediate fold equity to protect your hand and it punishes a Villain that opens wide on the BTN and cbets often. Villain can't really reraise commit with a naked club draw and semi-bluff you out (since you have the A blocker) and if Villain does reraise commit, you are likely against a set, 2 pair or wrap with fd and can happily fold your comparatively weak overpair.

However, I like a lead more cause when a standard sized x/r is just called by Villain on the flop, you are in an awkaward spot on the turn with and SPR of 2 and aren't really happy on any turn expect maybe a Kh, so you have to commit to barreling turn and river with your blockers or give up.

1) This hand is good enough to open on the btn in general, but you should tailor your bet size to your opponent (not your hand) and min raise the button with every hand you open, so when this Villain does 3bet you often, you can call and stacks will remain deep so you can leverage your positional advantage post flop. (Still 4bet when you have a good hand)

2) On the flop against the top 40% of hands (giving Villain a 40% 3Bet%)you are a slight underdog on this board. When Villain pots you probably don't have very much FE here (unless you've seen Villain pot fold at this stack depth before). Even if Villain just pot continues with a Q* or 8* hand you are about 46%, so shoving isn't horrible, but flatting at least keeps air in his range.

3) Should probably call the turn shove as played, against a range of overpairs, 2 pair (on the flop) and a Q, you are about 36% here and only need about 33% to break even.

Again this would've been easier to play if you didn't pot pre.

If he's a tough reg would he ever x/r with a bare set or straight here 200BB deep and call off a reraise jam here? He would likely need at least a FD to go with either one if he plans to continue, in which case you are in trouble. Even if he is putting Hero on AAxx if hero is a tight 3bettor and x/r bluffing with something random, then you keep those bluffs in his range as well by peeling.

I might have the syntax wrong, but you are probably not a favourite if you shove here and get called (assuming Villain won't x/r bare sets and straights and call off his stack 200BB deep that is).

Thanks paradigm, I completely missed the fact that I don't really want him to fold here when I have so many dominant draws, while sometimes it might be tough to win a big pot OOP by x/c'ing, there are times where we both hit straights and have redraws and my nut flush still allows me to win his whole stack or freeroll.

Plus like you said the STP being large makes a x/c preferable to having to shove here in that indifferent spot Joanna talked about when you have around 35% equity.

2 points on his sizing, I meant his reraise over my x/r was massive and therefore telling. And on my stack off math (although I misremebered the flop x/r size exactly), i just included his remaining stack as part of his reraise since there is no way he wasn't committing after raising me.

Thanks again for that revelation on keeping his dominated hands in on the flop.

Thaks Ibra, I just pulled this from memory so the details probably are a bit off. You make a great point though, that if I check raise smaller I still keep all the beneifts you described as far as repping future streets and defining his range, while not being forced to shove as an underdog when he does play back.

If SB has been on the fishy side and is 3-betting wide and loose in general (small sample though), I am calling pre (agree not 4betting without a suited A this deep)

In general if we say SB is 3betting the top 10% of hands pre, you are a 70% favorite on this flop, so I happily bet when he checks to you.

Once SB x/r's, if we refine his range to [ 88, 99, AA, A9, A8, TJQK, (T7, JT):dd ] you are a 56% favorite and you played it fine by shoving.

If the fish read is off and he would not x/r huge 250BB deep without a set or monster wrap with fd something like [ 88, 99, AA, TJQK:dd ] you still have 37% equity and getting exactly 3:1 you only need 25% to make a profitable call here even if you don't factor in implied odds. Although even if a diamond, 6, 7, T, J or Q hits on the turn he would probably be committed anyways.. so if we factor in implied odds and assume he is committed to the hand on the turn no matter what then his x/r is actually for his remaining stack of $466.28, so you are actually getting 1.74:1 or 36.5% on your shove, you have more than that with 37% equity so you made a good shove here and just lost the coin flip.

Yes it is ok and it is often profitable against players who aren't as aggressive and check behind with their marginal draws and hands, but otherwise might fold (correctly or incorrectly) against your perceived range when you donk.

Your examples above are good... Other good times to donk on the flop are when you have a vulnerable top 2 pair as well, for example J8xx on a Jd,4s,8s if an aggressive player raises you, you can happily get it in, if a passive player raises you big, you can fold knowing you are at best 40% (likely closer to 30%).

Other good times are when you have top set for example on a 2 flush, draw heavy flop and villains range likely contains made hands like AAxx because he 3bet you pre and has a low 3bet% or he opened utg and is tight from that position, in which case you want to get value before a scare card comes that kills the action, but likely doesn't help villains range very much. Especially if he is the type to wait for a safe turn to cbet on a drawy board or doesn't cbet often, otherwise a x/r might be better against a player who always cbets in 3bet pots.

Another good time is when you pick up a wrap and flush draw on the turn. Check calling is a bad option because you won't get paid if you hit on the river and you allow them to get some value from marginal hands if they check back for a cheap showdown. Where as a naked nut flush for example usually has to fold to a turn donk because they won't be getting the right price and they may be thinking it will be hard for them to get paid if the flush draw hits, because the draw was on the flop and obvious... so a donk can often be the best play.

Sounds like you are pretty much already doing most of these things, but keep in mind the opponent tendencies and range when donking made hands vs. going for a x/r.

Ya sorry, I edited that out about you not liking x/r's because it was not accurate, you were talking specifically about low equity x/r's, thanks for the direction.

Hi Jonna,

Since an oesd with a bdd or a naked nfd and similar drawing hands come to mind as those that would be put in this 30%-35% Danger Zone equity spot if x/r'sed and rerasied on either a connected or 2 tone flop, does it make more sense to move these into a donking range or check calling range and just build your x/r'ing range with more nutted hands and stronger draws along with the better equity bluffs? I know you mentioned different textures and opponents (stacks too) will swing the decision, but generally speaking are these assumptions accurate:

By donking
1) You gain some fold equity without having to put a lot of money in (unlike a x/r)
2) These hands lose a lot of equity on a blank turn if your opponent checks behind (might be even more relevant vs an opponent who doesn't over cbet)
3) You have fewer pure blocker hands with very little equity that are not easy to barrel off OOP after a flop x/r gets called (like you mentioned above)

Cons of doking
1) A donk has less fold equity than a x/r
2) Donk folding this type of a hand isn't a great option (unless it is a weaker draw we don't mind bet folding with)
3) You now have to balance a donking range so you don't always have weak to medium draws when you donk out.

I know a deep answer isn't worthwhile here (at least not for me, I won't even understand it lol), but just curious how removing those low equity blocker bluffs adjusts ranges from a high level?

Thanks plorious! I will look into Odds Oracle and see if I can work it out. Great analysis... So it sounds like in order to make 8JQKs a hand worth 3 betting pre flop HU OOP you would need to be able to create an SPR of 1 basically, so that we have 33% equity on a flop bet and you have roughly worked out that on 30% of flops we have an easy go broke decision.

3way I know we can either gain or lose considerable equity depending on what our opponents are holding, like you said I can try to figure out how to use Odds Oracle to see what our hands equity would be worth 3way vs. a CO bet/call and BTN call/call range if we do squeeze in this scenario and I wonder how shallow it has to be to make sense.

I'm torn because the situation you are describing with a good but not totally nutted hand is also a reason why you would 3bet, to bloat the pot while out of position and to lower the SPR and make it correct to stack off lighter with your good, but not totally nutted hands. This hand does also have 16 nut out wrap potential so its not completely a non-nut hand... I guess it's just a higher variance play and like you're saying if you are getting action you may be well behind.

So are you folding then? Because what happens if we flat and BB folds... now we're in a spot where we have to decide whether to check call in a small, but deep SPR pot OOP with a Jhfd on a 2spade flop, or top pair with a gutter for example on a different flop, which doesn't seem like a great strategy either because our range is capped and therefore hard to get a fold later or a check behind, we'd have to x/fold turns and it would be hard to win anything if we did hit OOP.

I can even see a case for folding pre flop I guess, but I can't intuitively get a feel for the right play, someone with a program that generates a huge number of flops and sees how much equity we typically flop against a 35% CO range and a BTN flatting range that doesn't 4bet is what I'd like to see and whether 3betting, flatting or folding is more +EV.

You make a good point about the top pair 2nd kicker though, because if we are forced to stack off in an SPR of 2 if we bloated the pot and cbet and get raised, that could be the deciding factor making the squeeze a bad play.

Btw, the 8 does help our straight draws a bit by adding the 7 as 4 more outs if a 9 and T are on the board.

Well equity wise, even TJQKs is an underdog to a 35% opening range pre flop (if that was COs opening range for example), but would you not 3bet that (for value) either?

If you want any preflop equity at all vs. a 35% CO open, that means the weakest hands you are 3betting here are hands like TJQK double suited, which is still only a 52% favorite.

Hitting a high % of flops and high card strength I think are more important in this spot and this hand hits nearly half the deck, any 8, 9, T, J, Q, K is a good card for our hand and even an A doesn't kill our hand if another Broadway card flops, or you choose to rep AAxx if they both just called preflop and likely don't have AA.

Again, it depends on BTNs 3bet range vs CO, but I would expect BTN to have hands that we do have equity against preflop, hands like TJQx with a low dangler, weak suited Ace hands and any pair like 77-TT (and lower) are all categories of hands we are ahead of preflop... not that preflop equity is more important here than high cards and board coverage on a high % of flops.

Not saying by any means it is a slam dunk 3bet without knowing the stats of CO and BTN, and maybe it is still less +EV than a call, I don't know how to figure that out, but that's why I am asking.

You have to call approx. 4K to win 16K (assuming BTN puts his remaining 1.5K in). So you only need 20% to be +EV.

Against a random xx set that waited for a non 5, 6, 7, 9, T or J turn before raising, you are between 23% and 30%.

You're really only ever below 20% here if you're against a set and a Khfd (around 14%)

So you should be calling here with your Qhfd, but in general any Ax 2pair + fd combo can consider calling here, but it depends on how live you think your fd is.

(Disclaimer: I'm a low stakes player, I just see that no one has commented).

You have 33% with your wrap and bdfd vs AAxx with a bdfd and you only need 30% here, if he also has a club draw too then you are only 23%.

Potlimitlife, what is "wrong" with the thought that our hand is ahead of BTN or that it is not worth a squeeze vs a CO and BTN range? Unless BTN has weak KKxx (which we block) we are even 42% against weak AAxx pre flop and many players 3-bet weak AAxx and KKxx BTN vs CO too, making it even less likely they are in BTNs range.

I'm not saying it is a snap squeeze everytime (depends on CO and BTN opening and 3bet ranges), but if you're not squeezing this hand for value here vs Co and BTN, when and with what are you squeezing with? This bottom 2 gapper flops 16 nut outs when it flops a straight draw and you have a Jhs (not great, but relevant and better in a low SPR pot).

I am genuinely asking these questions to get better at this spot, not because I think I am right. Also I should have said AKQ8s is the only hand we are crushed by preflop that might have flatted on BTN vs CO, we technically are behind AAxx, but it's somewhat likely its 3betted BTN vs CO and we are very live against it anyways.

I can only think of one better hand than ours that BTN would flat vs. a CO open instead of 3bet and that would be something like AKQ8s, so we are still very likely to be ahead. Those 1 dimensional suited Ace high flush draw hands are exactly the type of hands we want to squeeze and not let them see a flop cheaply... they also don't hit that often, making us more money when they call our squeeze and fold on a missed flop.

Just to clarify I would rank this hand on BTN vs. CO as 3bet>Call>fold in part because our hands slightly less connectedness makes is better as a 3bet to take HU rather than mw, but this hand is still quite nutty even mw, which is why it can still be played as a call. When you flop those 20 out combos with a double gapper like this, 14 of those outs are to the nuts (assuming no flushes out there) and you only need 14 nut outs to make this hand a 51% favorite on the flop against top set for example.

I was referring to the "decent spot" being if CO opens and we flat and the blinds fold, in which case we have an SPR of 14 and anything over 13 give or take is considered a high SPR, so relatively speaking it would be deep postflop.

I would squeeze this more often than not since a CO open and BTN flat are not strong ranges that I would be worried about being behind. If it was an UTG or MP open and then a flat, I would just call.

As Potlimitlife worked out this hand can call a 4bet BB profitably, so I would almost always squeeze here (vs Co and BTN) regardless of how active BB was, because I would prefer them to be cold 4betting loosely anyways.

This is one of the most speculative rundown type of hands to 3-Bet, but I think it's fine to 3bet BTN vs. CO. Two-middle gap hands like this have 20-card wrap potential so you can rep on Axx flops and usually pick up some equity as back-up along with your Thfd.

I also wouldn't say never call and that a fold is always a better option, we have to remember this isn't NL where weak hands work better / gain EV by being used as 3-Bet bluffs preflop. I think calling the CO open to try and see a flop in position and deep would be a decent spot... even if a squeeze came from SB or BB, I would still be ok calling with this hand.

Since you 3bet vs UTG he may very well put the Ace high flush in your range ex. AcAxxc, but once you nearly pot this monotone flop you really make your hand look like the Ac blocker and not the A high flush in my opinion... there would be no reason for you to bet so large on this static flop if you had the Ahf because it's hard for him to improve to a better hand, you could scare him off a straight or a weaker flush and conversely because you should be aware that you don't have the nuts.

At the same time I think betting large on the turn after getting called on the flop in general is good here since you are very polarized, but in this case I think your flop bet size turned your hand face up and that's why he isn't folding. Once he calls the turn I think it's time to check back the river since he won't fold getting 4.5 to 1 on his bluff catch.

Those players line of thinking is consistent if you think about it a bit more. It's because of overvaluing weak NFDs and worst case scenario thinking. On one hand they overvalue naked Nut Flush draws too much and because they think naked NFDs are so strong they are terrified when they don't have it, hence not betting the 2nd nut flush more then once for 1/2 pot (whether it is a single raised or 3bet pot)

As far as the 3betting goes 79TJss is too strong a hand to consider not 3betting because of these players, for one they don't always call so you still want to isolate the OG raiser and they are OOP when they do call from the blinds, you also hold many advantages:

1) you have better board coverage on more flops when they call with dry QQxx and KKxx hands.

2) When they call with lower rundowns your straight and flush draws are usually better and you control the betting with your 3rd and 4th nut hands (assuming they cold called from the blinds)

3) These players overvalue and stack off with the naked NFD way too often like you mentioned, always cold calling with double suited hands as long as one is to the ace, which is good for you,
for example:
If you have that 7s9sTdJd vs. As5s8d4d, on a flop like QsTs6d, even just having middle pair, 2 flush blockers and an OESD, you have 60% vs his naked NFD, which is a huge advantage in PLO and he will get it in everytime as a big underdog.

I agree, I didn't look close enough at the SPR in my first post and because of the confusing positions forgot how shallow these 200BB stacks had become on the flop. This is really more of a spot where it would be good to just smooth call if either opponent donked flop, but I would still say don't pot flop and turn your hand even more face up, keep the nfd and other strong wraps in your range.

One other thing I didn't mention is your hand is kind of face up on this flop since you 3bet pre and potted flop. One or both of them should have a flush draw or wrap to x/c flop against your range. So one of them should be ahead when this turn comes off unless they both have something like a lower set or KQTx without a flush draw. Also your pot flop bet left an SPR of 1 on the turn, so if either player were to shove this turn, you have to fold with only 23% equity against either a straight or a flush and if you bet when checked to here, it's hard to imagine any flush folding or even a straight if BB folds and CO has a straight and puts you on top set.

In general you should be cbetting more HU than MW, so on wet flops like this in a 3bet pot, your check back frequency with this hand would be very low HU (sorry don't have a % if that's what you are looking for). If you also had the nut flush draw to go along with top set your check back frequency should be 0%, you don't want to slow play with the nuts, because you want to stack those 2nd best hands and draws. 3way you may consider checking back more because you are more likely to get x/called and face tough turn decisions (again I don't have a %).

This is all my opinion, I haven't done a range analysis, if someone with pokerjuice could look at this hand on the turn and get a more definitive answer, that would be great.

I'm a bit confused on the positions because CO appears to be acting first, but I'm going to assume Hero is on the BTN, meaning CO opens, Hero 3bets, BB cold calls and CO calls.

I would check this turn almost always since a non-nut flush is likely going to x/c here, a straight may x/c if you bet small too. I would call a donk if either player leads turn and fold river to a reasonalbly sized bet if unimproved.

Something to keep in mind is you say that you hate turns like this, but any 7, 8, T, Q, K and any heart except 9h is a tough card for you on the turn. So there are 26 'bad' turn cards for you and 19 good turns, meaning 60% of the time you are going to be in a tough spot on the turn on this board texture. This deep you could consider checking back the flop, although you lose value against 99xx, JJxx and 2 pair hands, those hands may donk, x/c or x/r a blank turn and you can get it in as a much bigger favourite. Against a hand that x/r's on this flop like Kh8hQdTd you are actually a 41% underdog with top set. Even against just a flush draw and gutter like KhQhxx with 2 random cards you are a 60% favourite

At the same time with top set and this deep you also want to build the pot against lower sets and 2 pairs, while also charging the bare flush draws and wraps, so I am fine with a bet, but something like 70% pot would be fine and would make it easier on you when the bad turn card comes in 60% of the time on this board texture.

In this particular hand I think you do have the best hand often on the river although it's surprising he called such a large bet so light...

After he pots the flop on this light, but fairly wet/dynamic flop and the turn is a nuts changer, to me his check behind on the turn screams QQxx, KKxx, AAxx that potted the flop in hopes to take it down, but then is scared into playing a small pot on a bad turn card (for his hand) with still some showdown value. (I'm not sure whose range benefits from that turn 7s more since he iso'd a limp pre and you cold called, but it's probably close and he may not know that in game either).

The reason I don't think you are bluffing better hands on the river is because

1. If he has some non-spade wrap like 69Tx he would likely pot flop and check behind that turn too, so those hands didn't improve on the river
2. A pair of 8's probably isn't potting flop and if it is, he should be betting the turn with such little hope of winning at showdown, so I don't think there are a ton of trips in his range on the river either.
3. Your As blocker means his flop pot bet is less likely to be a small flush draw because he'd be over repping his hand and is more likely to have a made hand. (plus he would have to have checked all those flushes on the turn)

I think a better player folds to your river bet more often, I suppose a smaller river bet like $10 could get more calls from hands like QQxx and KKxx that he might feel he underrep'd on the turn, but that's still a really thin bet and you're probably better off x/c'ing this as bluff catcher. Not entirely sure what the best river play is, maybe someone else can weigh in.

Ah good point about him not betting river if the board pairs, really only a busted Royal flush draw with a K could possibly bluff on river after nearly potting flop and turn and that's way to small a range to need to defend against on turn.

I assume you mean defend 50% against a standard MP range, but just wondering if being 180BB deep changes that since we have weak set, straight and flush draws on action boards?

Didn't see your post first Benny, is this a standard preflop call because we are in the BB, or would you call in SB too if BB was passive?