Above_The_Hood

Your risk 1.80 to win 2.33 how is this 0.5 pot

Is not KQ QJ very odd to raise the flop against an Utg cbet. it plays so confident with a call that i thing is major factor for any kind of player to use, i dont see merged raising ranges in this spot imo

So what we dont have a calling range in any spot by that logic or Mp vs Cutoff? Vpip/pfr 30/30 ? xD

Its also a bit odd for players on this stakes to check back a set on the flop or an open ended straight draw.And if they do its because of a player profile tendency rather than a mixed strategy, what i mean by that is that his frequencies are gonna be polarized, to either checking 8T like 90%+ or betting it 90%+, same with the set.

Good job!

Hand is fine imo.

I would fold this, its kinda of a painful and borderline fold but, if someone had a gun on my head and told me, we have divine knowledge over your environment, do you call or fold here, if you make the wrong decision we gonna kill you, i would fold, 10% range is not enough to create so many bluffs here, and people find this board texture on the flop as good opportunity to generate folds, so gutshots bd clubs i think would bet the flop at a high frequency, if he does not do that, he anyway can not be bluffing with something like 7c8c 7c6c 7c5c. So half pot on the river seems to me like too many Ax and even if we dominate a small portion of them they will still make enough combos for making this a no call, i see this range as very small % of value hands we dominate and a very small % of bluffs and like 85% of hands that beat us.

If he is not folding vs 3bet, (7% fold on Button Holy Jesus) then what is the 3bet doing, only making the pot bigger playing oop and knocking out bb, i think you can just call, and if bb wants to come along its ok he gonna have many combos of dominated flushes, and your hand cant still play somehwat decent. I think postflop is an overplay , this guy clearly does not want to fold so why not hit and pay instead of putting the money in with a draw.You need some decent folding equity here and i dont see that this villain is the right canditate to try and make this play.In fact what he might fold are dominated draws rather than pairs making it even worse for you.

This is a hell of a spot damn, its impossible to say without doing some work on equilab with ranges, i can not do now because Stars is open. My guess is that its gonna be super close, and every little change you do to your assumption of their ranges its gonna make a big impact, Like is MP only doing that with 88 99, or is he cold 4betting flop with flush draws, 67 diamonds, etc. can he do that with Q9 of diamonds AK? do we have folding equity vs BB? I let this to someone else i am not good enough to say more :O

I think i would check everything on the Turn, 13% percent equity its not that big of a deal, this board is easy for slowplay with A5s 56s (if he is 3betting them) AA and maybe even KK sometimes, with AA he loves it when you bet for protection, when you bluff your broadway or when your broadway improves to the "board nuts" and you cant fold.So i am not saying that he has every AA and KK possible but he is not capped at them.So being out of position and capped yourself i would like to have only 1 betting street left here.You can bluff your air on some rivers and bet pairs for value for balance against his Ax. If i bet the turn for protection as mixed strategy i would check river and decide what to do but it would be a fold most of the times. So on this river as played what you trying to do is to make it easier for yourself but you open yourself up for a much more difficult decision and you can blow up the pot with a range that does not want this to happen, i would not call the min raise on the river or the big raise.

Yeah the preflop sizing is also gonna help on this, but that was mainly a flop sizing bet issue, 1/3 multiway against many draws is not accomplishing much, either as a bluff or value bet like AQ.

You are right i misread the spr and how (not)deep they are, if i knew that i would not even think about it

Squeeze should be bigger imo , like 1.50, Cutoff gets good price with position when Mp calls and if MP picks up on that he might 4bet you more and put you in tough situation, Mp gets better price too. My main consideration with this hand on this texure would be to do not make this hand a 3 streets hand, i would like to go all in on the turn so i just size up bigger on the flop and go all in on the turn. Gives your own draws better fold equity to bluff, and their draws are paying more,plus you get more value from Ax and other pairs.Imagine if you get there with a draw on the river, you can almost never bluff for that sizing left.as played go all in yourself on the river to get value from worst Aces and sticky K of diamonds.

I think you should bet the flop most times here, you would like to bluff this as preflop raiser and take it down with 78s etc, but i dont mind mixing the check as your equity even if its multiway will retain itself on the next street pretty well,and you can be more deceptive and balanced, can take value when they hit their broadway or other pair, or make them stab themselves. As for raising the river for value i am shitting my pants to even call to say the truth, given the population tendesies for this multiway donk and sizing, he is going polarized with the pot size bet, and it is not like he is doing that with Any A waiting to get called by a Q cause what Qx you and cutoff get here with, probably none for you only QQ AQ, given that,i really expect monsters from unknown player and average reg, And if he is doing that lets say with AJ AT Ax we can not be sure that he is calling the raise on that board where you are completely uncapped and very hard to be assigned with bluffs from his perspective(if he has any and is not a total fish and non thinking player), the cutoff capped himself by not betting the turn, i cant imagine a player that stabs flop with nuts gets called by 2 players and checks back turn, but he can still have some Ax that you make him fold by raising, so not only you place yourself in tought spot against sb and you let him play almost perfecltly against you you might be losing value against Co by making him fold. Call with that hand raise with nuts might be the better strategy against this pool right now imo.As played i fold the river, the i cant fold now i am commited, in some situations has to become a past moto for good players when you want to play exploitative, its as if he shows you his cards and you still call because you are " commited".

I thought for myself that people fuck up their 3bets range reaction against a 4bet in almost any kind of spot, specially Bu 4bet against blinds 3bets, but it did not have something to do with my 4bet sizing,I thought they cant play this spot and started 4betting small with blockers and position and that worked well for me 2, what i mean is that i did not implement the huge 4bet but rather just the 4bet so much. But i dont have enough to data to say that this can work on the long run etc. 60-70% fold vs 3bet is folding way too much, and if you fold AJ on the A high and dry board Cutoff vs BB is overfolding even vs the nitty players.If you mean like fold to 2nd barrel on
A 2 9 9 or A 4 8 3 , the tell you need to have to make a fold like this is almost like you asking to see his cards. Of course a lot depend on suits and sizings too

First of all, i want to say that against no info player i do not 3bet every KQ Bu vs UTG, i think it adds too many bluffs, but the portion i do 3bet i go a little bit bigger like 0.90 0.95, giving a bit better price can make the difference between him having AQo in his range or not and in general this hands main reason for 3bet is the fold equity you gain from your blockers. Flop looks good, you can fold AK AQ, Turn kinda the same but on the river i like to give up when you have the K of hearts so you block backdoor flop floats like KhQh AhKh etc, but most relevant reason would be the fact that, as you say by yourself, he has a lot of Jx and in general, and especially on this limit people can just put you on bd flush draw, on AK or on KQ and call this runout with so many Jx, i cant find a reason to why he should not have overpairs, i believe he can have all the QQ, and KK AA rarely, they gonna be for lower volume for sure due to preflop 4bets flop or turn raises and blocker effects, but i can not completely eliminate these hands.

I somehow agree with the base logic of your post but i think its exaggerated bigtime.Especially for the A high hero calls

You are missing the most important variable that is gonna determine if what you say can be a real issue or a fictional(result oriented) one, you dont provide us with real data, i mean how many hands are there, if this is all about like 5k-10k hands it could mean nothing. And basically you somehow said that your bankroll can not afford to make certain things with some certain hands, and i wonder is this how someone should approach poker, not taking plus EV lines depending on your bankroll? This should not stand truth but if it is it would also mean that your bankroll would not allow you to be on that limit in the first place anyways. So when you have 88-TT they 3bet any A,but when you have TT-QQ they have only AA KK, but how do they have only AA KK if they flat A8o?

Yes i agree with all that , and i think the probability of average player to turn medium PP into bluffs might be even lower than some people think.What do you think about making his hand a bluff check raise, is it crazy, bad, unnecessary, genius :D ?

I think 9bb 3bet Oop is giving a bit too good of a price for CO to flat with position and BB with position over you, plus we are a bit deeper than 100bb and its even worse if we let that happen. I do not understand why a balanced range would like to bet smaller especially oop

This is a spot that bet small-fold River looks pretty good for me, by checking you are not inducing many bluffs, since you hold the As,and the Q is not a club, some of his club floats are gonna have a pair now, So that means he gonna have many Kx and Qx that might call but not bet if you check,If i check this river i would even bluff raise this instead of calling even if its sounds crazy but the reason behind it is that i do not bluff both flop and turn with Lonely As like AsJx or AsTx etc unless it is AsKx or AsAx so that means most times i bet flop and turn its gonna be AsXs meaning that we have a tone of flush with this line that we can turn As even with a pair into a bluff with a very big polarized bet?. I am not very sure about this however as i am not very experienced player and maybe this is just my crazy thinking or missing some information as to why this could be very bad play, so keep the first part only, and i will be waiting here with you for someone to reply on what i wrote :D

Hello there,i subscribed to you and i will follow, i am preparing a similar thread on the Poker Journals for myself, not involving things for relationships etc but many things about my life and the way i want it to go, life status poker status and goals, wish you the best, good luck

This should be a fine fold, you dont have to give it much thought and let it bother you, if you get it in you are always behind.If MP decides to call he gonna do it with QQ+, Cutoff already has a very strong range cause he 3bet an early position open, so he gonna have JJ+/AK pretty often too. and the player that is threating you directly, unless he is doing something extremely bad and being on tilt for making a move like this, he gonna have something like TT+/AK in the best scenario for you.You can only call this only if you saw him doing that with any two cards,or extremely wide(tilt), that is highly unlikely at 50NL anyway.