If we give Villain a 13% RFI from MP he comes up with 22+, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KJo+
That said I think pre-flop is fine just to call equity-wise, even though you could argue depending on his fold to 3-bet that this might be more successful (if he folds a bunch).
Villain will arrive on the flop with 6% three of a kind, 5,2% two pair, 19% top pair, 5,2% kings as Second Pair, 10,3% Middle Pair, 44% pocket pairs as third pair or worse and 10,3% king high.
With a c-bet of 80% which I would assume on this board to be pretty accurate, I would exclude pocket pairs from 22-55 from villains range as he might give up with them.
Btw if we would raise his flop bet now to 1.00$ (not taking into consideration what this would mean to our range), this would have to work around 62% of the time to be profitable, which I think is the case if we expect he folds everything besides AA, QQ, AQ and Top Pair with an Ace. There wouldnt be any value in it though besides getting some from A10 maybe.
On the turn he is continuing to bet 55% of his range (on the 3c turn maybe a bit more), so I exclude all his pocket pairs below Q and half of his KJ. Calling is fine and standard therefore I think.
So now on the 6h River he bets 1.22 in 1.93, which means for calling we need to have an equity of 38%. It really depends now what we believe he is betting with: Is he able to ingrate bluffs like the rest of his KJ and slim value bets like KQ, A10 even though a flush hit the river? Then we still have 45%. Most likely I would think though he is checking those hands which means against the rest of his range our equity drops to 12,5% (which is tieing against his AJ) and it becomes a clear fold.
If we give Villain a 13% RFI from MP he comes up with 22+, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KJo+
That said I think pre-flop is fine just to call equity-wise, even though you could argue depending on his fold to 3-bet that this might be more successful (if he folds a bunch).
Villain will arrive on the flop with 6% three of a kind, 5,2% two pair, 19% top pair, 5,2% kings as Second Pair, 10,3% Middle Pair, 44% pocket pairs as third pair or worse and 10,3% king high.
With a c-bet of 80% which I would assume on this board to be pretty accurate, I would exclude pocket pairs from 22-55 from villains range as he might give up with them.
Btw if we would raise his flop bet now to 1.00$ (not taking into consideration what this would mean to our range), this would have to work around 62% of the time to be profitable, which I think is the case if we expect he folds everything besides AA, QQ, AQ and Top Pair with an Ace. There wouldnt be any value in it though besides getting some from A10 maybe.
On the turn he is continuing to bet 55% of his range (on the 3c turn maybe a bit more), so I exclude all his pocket pairs below Q and half of his KJ. Calling is fine and standard therefore I think.
So now on the 6h River he bets 1.22 in 1.93, which means for calling we need to have an equity of 38%. It really depends now what we believe he is betting with: Is he able to ingrate bluffs like the rest of his KJ and slim value bets like KQ, A10 even though a flush hit the river? Then we still have 45%. Most likely I would think though he is checking those hands which means against the rest of his range our equity drops to 12,5% (which is tieing against his AJ) and it becomes a clear fold.
April 5, 2017 | 10:15 a.m.