5ginsilentdarkness

1:30- You state you'd be splitting your range on this board. I do recall you saying in a previous video that you think it's a good simplification to either range check or range bet every board OOP BvB in a SRP. Have you changed your stance on this?

5:20- GTO Wizard actually pure calls A9s here with these exact sizings (2.5bb to 9bb) which, I must admit, I was a little surprised at. My instinct was also that we'd be splitting 4 bet/fold.

22:00- I think you might have misread the action here? This isn't BTN vs SB 3 bet pot, it's UTG vs BTN vs SB. We squeezed pre, UTG folded and BTN has cold-called twice. Does this change your analysis?

32:45- Do we know why Tall Mat ticks auto check/fold with KJo in the BB before anyone opens? Misread his hand?

Great video all in all, looking forward to part 2.

Generally only if BB is a weaker player and unlikely to squeeze is my understanding.

21:10- I think SB should be checking a lot (possibly even range) on the turn in this spot simply because he's OOP and it's a much better card for our range than his. This is especially true if he's cbetting range, which to be fair is unlikely given the board texture and his sizing.

If I'm right that SB should check a ton here, then his range on the river is completely uncapped and ours naturally is not. He will therefore have a lot of nutted hands he was trapping on the turn with (straights, sets, 2 pair) as well as a lot of one pair hands that he wanted to pot control on the turn with that have now been promoted to hands strong enough to overbet when we check back (KJ, AJ, QQ+). He will also however have a lot of Qx bluffs so I think we have to call with a bluffcatcher as good as KT that unblocks all the aforementioned unpaired Qx bluffs and blocks KQ and a lot of sets and 2 pair.

If you have a population read that people will just automatically barrel the turn with Qx no SDV and/or will underbluff the river then folding is probably OK. To be fair, I would imagine bet/check/overbet to be a pretty underbluffed line in general. Very interesting hand. I'm curious to know what a solver would say and might sim it later.

Lots of good stuff to take in here. Think I'm going to be rewatching this one a lot.

He had good backdoor equity. What are you complaining about?

Pre and flop look fine enough to me. Flop is a bit dicey but as others have mentioned we do need to make a lot of marginal defends on these very dry boards. One of the advantages of floating with two broadways is that people tend to overbluff turn cards which improve you a lot since they're perceived to be "scare cards" which are better for the pre-flop aggressor's range. I will say I would prefer it if we had KsTc or KsTh to make this play, just because blocking two BDFDs makes it a little less likely we'll face a turn barrel (and a little more likely we can realise equity/bluff rivers if turn goes check/check), but floating this combo isn't terrible, just a little marginal.

Turn, I think we should just fold. The important thing to recognise is that villain's overbet if very polarising and, as such, our c/r vs such a range should be even more polarised. Because of this, we should have very few bluffs here and all the bluffs we do have should have good equity. Even if we do this with every OESD we get to the turn with (and there are many), it will be overkill. Doing it with gutshots as well is just way overdoing it. Someone said above that a solver recommends continuing with KQ 100% vs this turn overbet, but I think we can fold that hand too and exploitatively continue with TPGK+/OESDs only based on the assumption that turn overbets at 50NL are not balanced and are more likely value heavy.

River is close. I definitely don't think we should bet as you suggest in your OP as we won't have 50% equity against any reasonable calling range. We block KJ/K5s/K3s/QT. Having said that we also block T8, which is the only natural bluff he can have apart from 64s and 78 (I know villain ended up showing 89 OTR, but that's very weird and I'm trying not to be results-orientated). KQ should probably be a call as it has all the same blocker effects as KT but doesn't block any of villain's bluffing range. With KT- flip a coin I guess?

I watched that video too and his findings were that 1/2 pot flop leads tended to usually be weighted towards TP and second pair hands with top pair being about 50% more likely than second pair. I've got his data slides up now and 73/144 half pot sized donks were top pair hands with 44/144 being second or third pair.

Given those findings our flop peel is fine/standard, but I really think we should just be folding the turn without a heart in our hand when villain doesn't slow down and increases his sizing to around 60% pot. That probably would have been my instinct in-game and I think Tariq's findings back that up. It's a classic slightly ahead/way behind spot (with us being way behind, occasionally even drawing dead, the vast majority of the time) and I expect our overall equity against villain's range to be pretty poor.

Thanks for the great video but I think you made an error at around 8:30 when you say that villain's MDF is around 50%. We made a 1/2 pot c/r so his MDF should be about 66%? That changes the analysis quite a bit, no?

Thanks

Great video, thanks.

Last hand was probably the most interesting. Brilliant laydown on the river with the 2nd nuts from villain (and correct vs player pool as you say).

3 betting to stack off OTF looks good. People tend not to fold very often after raising monotone boards in my experience and we don't want action killer cards to come vs JJ/QJ/55, nor give him a chance to realise his equity with AdX by checking back brick turns.

Isn't raising Tx/JJ/QQ OTT really terrible here when we have all TT/QQ+ in our range? In fact, should we even have a turn c/r range at all in SB's position?

Just fold the turn.

I think a random 25NL fish has way more bare 4x here than you give him credit for.