3Kids

My first reaction is that UTG sucks. Either he has FPS, value bets poorly, or doesn't have the balls to put some chips in the middle on a bluff.

All of that indicates to me that he thinks on a basic level. You need to be good here 25% of the time, but I don't think you are. In the middle of the hand I would probably call. But in analysis it looks more like a fold. Watch his further play and take a note on what he is likely to do this with. Hopefully you can catch some showdowns.

OP, can you tell us what his donking stats are?

I'm still trying to wrap my head around how KQ is in his flop donking range, or how often it is there. Even if you're done with the hand analysis, I would reallly appreciate knowing the stat.

Grunch: I think you are ahead (much more than 38% of the time) here. His line is pretty strange if it's KQ or Q8. You described him as loose passive. I don't think a loose-passive would normally donk a gutter plus overcards. I think the villain has a set or overpair, possibly two pair.

The pot is 126.10 when villain shoves the turn. We have 70.8 behind. I think we need 70.8/(70.8+126.1) to break even. That's 36%

Bet bigger pre. People will call 4x if they want to play.

Bet bigger on the flop. .30 is good.

Against an unknown you should fold on the turn. See Baluga Theorem.

I think you should call.

You have to call 43 into a pot of 157. You need to be ahead 22% to break even.

You lose to 22, 77, 33 and maybe he shows up with QQ here sometimes. Let's call that 8 combos. Are there 3 combos of hands that he will shove that you are ahead of? KcQx is 3.


Edit: I added 33 to the list. The numbers of combos remains the same at 8 (1+3+3+1).

I had to laugh when I saw the limit theorem being used on page 1. I found Poker Math that Matters to be more accesible than MOP yet still more substantive than an explanation of pot odds.

"I don t think you can assume every A high is barreling the turn. Some do for sure but I think that s the exception and not the rule. Also not every OP is going to check the river."

Good points. I should have considered the flop and turn actions more thoughtfully before assigning that range.

"OTF unless I made a slowplay w/ KK+ I don t have any overpairs strong enough to be raising for value. Raising the flop is telling your 8x story which is somewhat unbelievable. Unless you have very specific reasons (you probably almost never have reasons specific enough without big time history) raising any hand OTF is going to be quite bad."

Hmmm... I think this flop is about as good as one can hope for with KJs. Do you think call call check is the best line? It could be, I'm really not sure here.

He has $62 left otr. The pot is $75. A bluff needs to work 45% or more to be profitable.

Assumption 1. His range is TT+(24 combos), AQ+(28 combos)
Assumption 2. He will fold all non-pairs, call with all pairs.

You have a profitable shove: 28/52 = 54%

Re: Assumption 1: I think he is wider here than AQ+ (maybe 88+, A9s+, AT+, KQ). That lends support for bluffing.
Re: Assumption 2: Is he a believer or a doubter? Shove profitably on believers. It's thinner on doubters.

Against a doubter I think I prefer a flop raise (to 30 - 35) and turn shove because you have two streets to communicate your "overpair" story. If he's a doubter and a hope-er.... I'm not sure. Maybe it's best to check back and give up vs calling stations.

I think it helps to realize that patience is really really important in poker. At times I find it helpful to tell myself, "I'll get his money eventually."

Re: Zoom, I think you have to look at "his" as a homogeneous group.

I don't have any strict rules. I try to reason through the hand and make the right move based on what I assume the villain(s) have and what they will do with it. Overall I try to cultivate the image of a nit.

It's ok to raise with air if your opponent's have air and they will fold. The if is the biggie.

Vs. weak flop bets try folding to the first couple at a table then after that raise one. Pay attention to who will fold to raises and also to what weak flop bets mean from specific villians.

I think many many value hands will bet the turn since the board is drawy. I can see some players checking behind with full houses but I think it's fps.

What level does this player think on? Have you seen him bluff raise a river before? If not I think you should fold. He has to bluff raise mroe than 36% of the time for a call to break even. Without knowing that he is playing a balanced game against you, I assume his frequencies are skewed one way or another. Either he is bluff raising 50%+, or 5%.

So.. you have a what looks to be a bad aggressive player who will call yoyur 3B oop and not lead this flop. Nice.

I think your hand looks to the villain like Ax, or he might only think as high as, "you missed, I bet." Against that bet, one pair is a bluff catcher. I think his value hands include flopped sets (9 combos), 75 (4 combos, but discounted to 1 bc he folds this a lot to a 3B), some AQ or KQ (16 combos). I think the villain has more worse hands than better ones here, including PPs (that probably think they are ahead), Aces, and some suited-connecter semi-bluffs.

I think you have the best hand here a lot. I think calling the turn and his river shove is the best line here.

If you look at the $8 turn bet as a commitment decision, then you have to commit $22.50 for a pot of (22.50+5.35). You need to be good 45% of the time to commit here. I'm inclined to let an aggressive go ahead and bluff me on the turn and ship it on the river.

Can he bluff shove (or shove to break a chop) your river raise? If so, will you fold or call? The wider his range when bets the river and the more likely he is to bluff shove the more marginal it is to raise the river.

If he won't bluff shove, then raising is safer, and more attractive. I think you'll keep enough of his river betting range to make a raise plus EV if you click it back. I think, BvB, and with the Ace and fllush card on the turn, he gets to the river with a fairly wide range.

Really, the question boils down to assumptions about ranges and the effect different raise sizes will have on those ranges.