1tufftwinky

agreed river is a fold. V has no bluffs, we block no pairs and hold the Qd, the only potential worse block/Vbet. don't see villian trying to get value form 9 high flushes or worse.

If everyone is pretty deep and there are weak players then VPIP is fine. However, Fold is better here IMO because there is a very loose BB with $160 who is likely going to stick it in pre-flop which is bad for your hand, one which plays better deep postflop.

Also, a lot of the value of these type of hands opened from EP often come from a Villian trying to be aggressive on the board that you hit with this hand, but usually do not with your range. But multiway people are not just going to be blasting off with bluffs when you flop the nuts.

As played, kinda like the 4-bet for obv reasons with the dead money. and even if someone flatted aces your equity with this hand vs most AA combos is good.

Not a good play. Unless I am missing something I don't see the average recreational player folding any better hands to a half pot lead here?...

Fold is a pretty big mistake here imo. Even if V has no 'bluffs' it is too strong to assume that a live player will not overvalue all trips combos here. Honestly, in live poker, you will make more $$ from rec player overvaluing their hand strength than you will be by making super hero exploitative folds.

call wide and implement river overbets vs a checkback ( on certain runouts)

I agree with you Gamba and I would shove all of my bluffing range and some 9x ( prob with a pair) and then have many value combos to shove obviously. This is because I'd want to rep flush + for value to fold out all Q9 and straights which is in his range very often IMO.

schifty, these are my assumptions in this spot that would lead to similar conclusions as Gamba...

V is capped because he removes some flops sets from his range pre-flop, as he would squeeze 10s and Js a high %.
Flop I would not assume people are X/raising 2pr/set or KQhh combos every time so we can remove a % of them.

Then he likely checks a decent % of remaining sets, and all 2pr combos on this turn. It would be a very thin V bet for his size. JJ would be the only real value set combo. you hold a J.

Then although the river is bad for his range he would recognize that hero has many straights and some flushes on river so would betting his (very few remaining) boats himself OTR a high % IMO.

The same river logic would lead to him bet-folding most his flushes OTR rather than checking, to get value from our straights. We have so few bluffs on this river it makes very little sense for V to check anything that beats a straight to bluffcatch.

Even if he check/calls all of his flushes. He only really has Q9hh or KQhh and MAYBE 910 hh at a push. that's only 3 combos...

Now you see that most standard strats are not going to have a balanced value X/C range on this river (it would be easy to have 100% c/f on this river without realizing it for the reasons stated above) therefore a shove with this hand that blocks a J, is close to the bottom of our range on this river and folds out all chops and Q9 combos seems like the best play.

Also like to note that in live poker there is no HUDs or software so in fact making assumptions of opponents likely ranges and strategies and then finding ways to exploit them is very very important. People in my experience play less balanced ranges live so when a spot like this comes up in which even a very good mixed strat would struggle to defend, it is unlikely they are prepared to.

I mean checking back is totally standard and will be +ev. I just think it could be an interesting exploit of him narrowing his range so much on the turn. My assumption was that we are chopping on this run out a very high % of the time and have very few bluffs in our range so shoving this particular river and winning instead of chopping will be a huge win for us. Basically if he has removed sets and 2pr from his range on the turn and then flushes by not v betting the river his range has to fold to a shove (lets assume always) and if that's the case then your 9x hands are the part of your range that will make the most in this spot when he loses half the pot ($2500) that he would have won if you x/b river.

Again, this is all a potential exploit of him turning the value portion of his range face up on the turn.

Very good point and one I was curious about when watching. Just to add to this... If you said that BB is weighted towards made hands it means that utg is very likely to be on some sort of combo draw which obviously makes a huge difference to your equity. Anyway nice vid. The NL hand really highlighted how exploitative live games must generally run with that fold. I feel like not betting turn in his spot with AQ is losing more than folding the river. seems like a card he should be betting a ton? any way you are ever checking back this combo in his spot?

Pre and flop standard. On the turn I wouldn't lead with this combo blocking a portion of his calling/check back range holding a K.

fold flop. turn fine as played. can bluff river he rarely has a flush or better.