Thanks Simrud!

Thanks for the great question! I agree with you in theory that we should exploit player pool tendencies. However in practice, two things make GTO bluffing-style ratios appealing:

1. I often don't know how to exploit the player pool in a situation.

In some common spots, I know how the player pool plays, but in many situations, specific fold frequencies for the position, situation and board texture are unknown. In these spots, the best I can do is GTO, because it maximizes against unknown strategies.

2. I might be the only person in the player pool playing the line.

Remember my opponents can see holecards after 24 hours, so if I'm the only person playing a line in the player pool then I need to monitor my frequencies. Otherwise, if I'm always bluffing in situations or never bluffing that is what observant players will think the player pool does using the line. This is especially problematic if I try to always bluff using a weird line, after sometime the pool will swing from always fold to often call.

Hahaha, I know it's such a weird thing and kind of tilting when I see the crazy hero folds or bluffs that played perfectly against my hand.

Edit: On the last hand where I have 98 and am facing a river bet after checking turn on QJ786. I generally don't mind jamming here with some bluffs if his sizing indicates weakness or medium strength hands. In this particular spot though it's suicidal because based on sizing he often has two pair plus and those hands are very difficult to fold.

I was also thinking about bluff raising this river with 9x blocker for T9 or 95 etc for a straight and some 8x for two pair blocker. One thing I noticed though, that would make me not bluff this river, is BB stack size being around 60bb. I think this would indicate a more recreational player and least likely to bluff on this river for PSB. I would lean towards just folding the river because of the stack size and just assume this stack size or player is not bluffing enough with Ax, K9, KT etc and call more with Jx+ hands that unblock their bluffs. I think 98 blocks quite a few of villain's bluffs here, so maybe call with something like J2s or something that doesn't have a 9x or Tx in it for calling.

Awesome Bingo, glad you enjoyed the video!

Without diving to deeply into the minutiae, most strategies advocated against the button on RIO were designed to beat 3x open raises, so the pros in the pool play very well against the strategy without adjustment.

So for example:
(continue less obviously)
3betting more compared to the calling range
3betting more polar (less mixing on the bottom of value range)
are these correct?

I'd encourage you to look at Pokersnowies free defend against button range. It'll be a good starting point. Actually keeping the same 3-betting strategy will make more money because when button folds he loses 3 bbs as opposed to 2.5bbs. More generally against 3x we flat tighter. 3-bet frequency is dictated by opening raise percentage, so it's likely we should 3-bet tighter but it's not guaranteed as some players don't lower their open raise percentage. The composition of the 3-betting range is going to be based on fold to 3-bet and 4-bet numbers, so whether he raises to 2 or 3 is only a secondary factor.

Thanks SoundSpeed, i appreciate the feedback :)

With Kh6h, your flush draw will make it clearly profitable to play, because the 13% of the time you flop a flush draw, you will win slightly more the full pot. Once you include trips/two pair, its an easy call. Top pair is of course stackable here, though higher variance. Without ICM considerations, you are increasing your stack by 27K, when everyone folds and only losing 38K (10% equity when behind) when someone has a better hand.

It's never fun to lose a tournament, but I think in this spot you have too. It's no different than losing AKo vs QQ.

Thank you Tyler Forrester This hand with K6h has haunted me for some time now. I almost wanted to nit it up in tourneys, but then I think i'll end up min cashing a bit and not really final tabling. I don't play a lot of tourneys in general, just wasn't sure how this spot compares to cash games. Excellent feed back!

There's some assumptions here:
1. His value bets have 100% equity.
2. I call MDF.

When he bets 1x pot, I call 50% of the time, he makes a profit of .5 pot. If he bets 2x pot, I call 33% of the time and he makes a profit of .66 pot. Since .66 pot > .5 pot, he actually loses .16 pot by using the smaller sizing.

but if it was bluff, he would lose less :P

Thanks Marbella!

Thanks for the compliments and great commentary! I think bluffing with flush draws is an interesting proposition especially in solver poker, because the solver is often strong enough to make the flush draw 0 EV like any other draw. From a more practical perspective, you should be bluffing with flush draws in lines that you can't have other types of bluffs or where your opponent is unlikely to have flush draws based on action on previous streets (c/r c/c lines and the like).