Great vid Zach
At 29:12. first hand in Pokerjuice. You are saying that we need to defend 50% against Doug's x/r. But he is wagering 3600 to win 2000. I thought our MDF to this sizing was closer to 35%?
Around 1/3 of his range should be bluffs so that our hero calls are worth 0EV. But we should defend around 35% because otherwise villain's bluffs would be -EV.
using pot sized raise for simplicity, given villain is bluffing and we call 50%
(50% we call)( villan lose 2 pots)+(50% we fold)(villain wins pot)= -half pot EV for villain's bluffs.
--> So, if villain's bluffs are massively losing we can't be at equilibrium
Instead,
(1/3 we call)(villain lose 2 pots)+(2/3 we fold)(villain wins pot)=0
--> Now our calls are still 0 EV if villain's range is 1/3 bluffs, and villain can have bluffs because when he's bluffing his EV is also 0.
Pot sized raises are confusing because they're basically 2x pot overbets.
Very late to the party here, but I must be missing something. In the sim, you have the BB calling 80% then calling around 50% of the flop. By the river the sim is showing 37% of his range is set+ which seems impossible.
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Hi, his hand was T 8 4 4 with 3 clubs. In PJ you defined it as T 8 8 4.
Just sayin...
ok right. makes it even more suspect I suppose!
Great vid Zach
At 29:12. first hand in Pokerjuice. You are saying that we need to defend 50% against Doug's x/r. But he is wagering 3600 to win 2000. I thought our MDF to this sizing was closer to 35%?
Around 1/3 of his range should be bluffs so that our hero calls are worth 0EV. But we should defend around 35% because otherwise villain's bluffs would be -EV.
using pot sized raise for simplicity, given villain is bluffing and we call 50%
(50% we call)( villan lose 2 pots)+(50% we fold)(villain wins pot)= -half pot EV for villain's bluffs.
--> So, if villain's bluffs are massively losing we can't be at equilibrium
Instead,
(1/3 we call)(villain lose 2 pots)+(2/3 we fold)(villain wins pot)=0
--> Now our calls are still 0 EV if villain's range is 1/3 bluffs, and villain can have bluffs because when he's bluffing his EV is also 0.
Pot sized raises are confusing because they're basically 2x pot overbets.
Thanks Ben and Thyx. I've looked at pot-sized raises incorrectly. Thanks for the clarification.
Hi Zach,
So if his value to bluffs is say 3 to 1. What does that mean for our calling range? 25%?
Very late to the party here, but I must be missing something. In the sim, you have the BB calling 80% then calling around 50% of the flop. By the river the sim is showing 37% of his range is set+ which seems impossible.
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