WSOP 2018 $50,000 Poker Players Championship (part 4)
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Around minute 25 Mizrachi 4-bets a wheel 3-way after the first draw. Would it be better for Mizrachi to flat and give both players a change to improve? Would that give away too much information.? Since he drew 3, I can't see how flatting the 3-bet and patting would make it obvious he has a wheel.
Around minute 55. Smith raise/folds KQQ2 in O8 from the SB. It is interesting to see how mixed games players at this level seem to overvalue high hands in O8. I agree that the raise wasn't good, but shouldn't he call the 3-bet and see what the flop is, getting 5-1 immediate odds?. It is usual to a raise and fold to a 3-bet in limit blinds games.
I don't think it gives away his hand if he only fats and pats. But once he raise later in the hand he always have #1 or #2...So opponents can safely fold hands like 85xxx, 86xxx...I never saw a bluff like that in my life, maybe it's something to try out :) But let's somebody had 87543 or 86532 and decided to just call the 3bet and pat (behind). They just never turn that hand into a bluff...
2, Also it went bet-raise-CALL-3bet...so Hennigan called 2bets, therefore it's likely he will call the additional 2bets.
3,If he knows that Smith can 3bet a 7draw here ever he really needs to 4bet and get some value...
Even 1 will be enough for me to 4bet...but all these 3 facts makes it an easy 4bet imo.
For the O8 hand: Smith raise-called KQQ2ds and then check-folled (correctly) on an A96 flop. So he didn't folded to the 3bet
Smith's chances of winning the pot go way up HU versus 3 way... shutting out Hennigan after he puts 3 small bets is nice for only 2 bets...
At 1:09:00, in the 2-7 hand where Mizrachi draws 2 and bets, and Hennigan makes 98632. You say that, because Mizrachi won't bet unimproved, therefore he is a one card draw or pat, and therefore it is like having a one card draw 3 times. I don't quite agree with this. When Mizrachi started as a two card draw, and is now either 1 or pat, he is weighted more towards being a one card draw now, more than he would be if he just drew one. Your assumption would be completely correct if Mizrachi just looked at his first card, and bet, signalling that the first card improved him. Then, he does have a one card draw three times. But, when he draws two, of the times he improves, a large percentage will be to a one card draw, and a small percentage to pat. Therefore, I think we do maybe have value raising a 98632, and patting if he draws one?
Yes, you are right, that Mizrachi will have a 1card draw more often than a pat hand in this spot. However patting with a clear 86 draw is still a mistake, too early pats. He has a solid draw and overall against his opponent range (which will still consist some pat hands!) i think he will be a slight underdog by patting with 98642. He may equalize that by his position advantage and sometimes villain will break better hands after 2nd draw (for example 97532). But i still think that Hennigan should have only called and take 1.
To illustrate the probability concept, let's say that I throw two dice, and make a bet if at least one is a six (Equivalent to improving a 2 card draw). When I make this bet, what is the probability that both are a six? ( Equivalent to making a pat hand). Well, before the throws I will throws two sixes 1 in 36 times, and will throw at least one six 11 in 36 times (calculated by throwing zero sixes being 5/6 multiplied by 5/6). So, of the times that I have thrown at least one six (equivalent to improved), then I have thrown 2 sixes (equivalent to pat) only 1 in 11 times.
However, the "one card draw three times," is like assuming that the FIRST dice was a six, and asking "what is the probability that the next dice is?" That is 1 in 6. But it's wrong in triple draw to model is as 1 in 6, because it is the first method (throwing 2 dice being like drawing 2) that models what happens in a draw two triple draw spot.
Overall, the concept in triple draw is that, if an opponent draws 2 and is improved to 1 or pat , it is quite a lot less likely that he is pat, than the chance of him drawing 1 and making pat.
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