Value Bluffing (part 5)
Posted by Daniel Dvoress
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Nice video!
Do you think that should also consider how many overcards do we cover ( hit two pair) on the turn. If we have A8 and A comes on the turn we can get 2 streets from all Ax hands. And if we are planing to fold to a check-raise than we it is even better to check-back A8 because we have 5 outs to improve and we are blocking mid set. And when we have 99 we only have 2 outs to improve and we dont block any sets but we are blocking his semibluffs.
So if I would have to rank these hands for betting I would say 1.99, 2. A8, 3.89
I talked briefly about "coolering" the guy with A8 when he has Ax and like you say this should be a minor consideration. It's a small one though because you are really looking to hit a two outer.
99 does block his semibluffs, but if you are going to plan to fold to a c/r this is actually a good thing, not a bad thing. It's also easier to continue on more turns with 99 because it connects better with the board.
I think it's fairly close with 99 and A8 in this spot and I don't think it matters too much what you do with either - the important thing is understanding why you are doing the things you are doing, because in some other spots (or this one with different hands) it's not that close and that's where it really starts to impact your winrate.
great. i feel like your videos are getting better each time.
keep it up! :)
Nice video Daniel. I am/was planning to make a video on this subject for PLO and NL. Mine will hopefully be different enough to be worthwhile. I really need to get proficient at CRev.
How big of a task would it be or is it in the capabilities of CRev to model the BB strategy vs us checking back and simulate turn and river play across random runouts. Additionally, we would need to complete the strategies on turn and river vs BB's x/c range. We then could compare the ev of betting vs checking.
My plan was to do that but with heavy assumptions to make the task more approachable.
Hey Zachary,
I think what you are asking is kind of like what Stephen asked about a month ago here:
http://www.runitonce.com/pro-training/videos/dvoress-hand-review-video/
with the modeling of how much equity villain can steal from us on various rivers (hopefully my answer there provides some insight).
CREV is very capable of doing what you want to do, it might just be a bit tedious. If you wanted to you could actually made a set of assumptions for every possible river, and then just get the average of those to represent a random river, if you wanted to get a perfect answer.
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