I'm not really why we need shove here KsKd "for protection", his bluffs have maximum 25% equity against us and we have enough equity against range to at least roll for a call on every river.

Tyler Forrester I am not shoving for protection per say. I think a lot of players play B-B-X and give up with their flush draws / combo draws as solver says they should a lot of the time because of negative blockers. However, they will play B-BC vs a shove with these draws quite often, so because they are less likely to bluff the river (24-28%) of the time but call with their draws at a high frequency I think shoving the turn is just more of a value shove.

We have the Ks so the his combo draw/give up range is going to vanishing small -- like AQss (supposed to check turn), AJss, QJss + random spades (which probalby just barrel because 76ss isn't really blocking anything in these positions).

PIO likes shoving KK but only without the spade. Like Tyler Forrester said the Ks is a very important blocker when ranges are very tight. On most brick runouts the only flush draws PIO is shoving at some frequency are KQss, KJss and low ones like 54ss. Having Ks blocks most of that, and so even at equilibrium BB won't bluff shove many missed flush draws on these runouts, yet KsK prefers flatting. On higher connected cards there can be some bluff shoving from some AXss hands like AJss, but not that much and only on a few offsuit Q and J runouts. So in summary, flush draws are barely shoving the river at equilibrium, yet KsK is still called pure.

Id agree with OP. And the concern isn't only to lose value from the draws playing bbx its that some of the value hands will catch a scary runout and play bbxf when on the turn they could both - value and draws - play bet betcall.
And we're not losing any ev by having really weak range on the river on blank runouts since OOP just chicken check these runouts.

You can level yourself a lot in these spots,but for every guy who bets stack-size because "it looks weaker". There's some guy who bets it as a bluff "because it looks stronger'.

its just a h2n feature, OOP might have put his entire stack left but only effective stacks shows

I don't know, I guess small has to better than big, but I'm really not that clear on IP calling range here, unless someone calls with JThh, KJhh, AJhh or spite calls A7cc,88 or something. It seems like we are just behind range on this river and there isn't much we can do except bluff-catcher.

Tyler Forrester so you would rather just XC with KQc or XF? And XC > than Block + Fold?

It's pretty marginal -- I'd c/c hoping AKo, 98, hearts floated here enough. It's pretty high up in our range so we should see lots of check-backs wins if he's not bluffing here much.

I tried to run this one on PIO, and can't find out the answer to whether we can block the river, because BB is supposed to range check the J turn after being 50% on flop and being this deep. My sim is showing range check on any Q or J, and on Ts. The spades in particular are bad because IP should have some turned flush draws which means there are even fewer rivers on which BB's big pairs can get value, and the stack depth is punitive especially when OOP. So it appears the turn is also a big blunder, betting 75% is a 3BB mistake compared to checking.

Thanks Matt, that makes a lot sense given how condense preflop ranges are here and how little equity 88-TTs have here even against a range bet.

I get little worried that these type of boards are just underfolded from OOP compared to equilibrium so I tend to bluff-catch aggressively and not bluff raise much. As you point out lots of guys are going to feel forced to bet AK or AQ here, but they would check "TT-AA" because it's a bad board. Just thinking a little about range -- bluff raise might be okay (though generically it's not much a profit center).

Yeh, I guess that most draws are reasonably high equity draws and BB unlikely to fold to a single raise too often. The prospect of raising 5s5 and barreling multiple streets doesn't seem too fun!

i think it's a really common theme in these pots, where OOP started with quite a strong range, but by the river these hands have between 50-80% equity against ranges and OOP doesn't really adjust to the new situation.

Yeh it seems like most people don't know how to play the tighter spots too well, perhaps in part because most people study later position spots way more and fail to adjust enough when in earlier position spots.

I think the combo is probably the worst open ended straight draw to choose to barrel blocking the 4 obvious folds on this turn (KdJd, KdQd, AdQd, AdJd). It could still be profitable if your opponent was particularly loose passive or nitty, but I think against a solver-type strategy, it's probably quite poor.

With AKo, I'd argue that we should be looking for two streets here and the river should be a mix-call, we are okay on turn as a v-bet, but once he gets to fold flush-draws and some Ax combos, the river bet is quite poor.

With AA, check-calling is going to be close without the As: AQss, ATss are guaranteed bluffs. The threshold for check-calling is 33% equity against the betting range, where as the threshold for value-betting is 51% equity against the calling range. It's a lot easier to clear 33% than it is 51%.

Thanks Ben, appreciate the love!

Thanks AJM, I always appreciate your input!

There are plenty of ways to exploit an always call with AKo, but in anonymous pool, it's a little tricky, because JJ-TT is still going to be called the majority of the time (it beats far more hands), so trying to block AK and not block JJ-TT is going to be a mistake.

I think river is likely closer than you'd suspect here with AK.

I think most humans are biased toward being greedy, but people will come through and switch the paradigm.

I think 1/3rd is probably that most consistent with extracting value (targeting pocket pairs) while still always some bluff-raises.

It might be a prayer that somebody calls, because the bluffs here are really hard to pull.

yeah, just normal stuff.