8:20 with KK on T93ss-6x thoughts on raising all in on the turn given there is going to be 0.5 SPR on the river? Given the limited sample of hands raising all in on the turn feels like the better play as majority of players will play B-B-XF? I know its filtered for the triple barrel, so obviously you only flatted all these turns, but in general just shoving turn with your most vulnerable value hands?
I'm not really why we need shove here KsKd "for protection", his bluffs have maximum 25% equity against us and we have enough equity against range to at least roll for a call on every river.
Tyler Forrester I am not shoving for protection per say. I think a lot of players play B-B-X and give up with their flush draws / combo draws as solver says they should a lot of the time because of negative blockers. However, they will play B-BC vs a shove with these draws quite often, so because they are less likely to bluff the river (24-28%) of the time but call with their draws at a high frequency I think shoving the turn is just more of a value shove.
We have the Ks so the his combo draw/give up range is going to vanishing small -- like AQss (supposed to check turn), AJss, QJss + random spades (which probalby just barrel because 76ss isn't really blocking anything in these positions).
PIO likes shoving KK but only without the spade. Like Tyler Forrester said the Ks is a very important blocker when ranges are very tight. On most brick runouts the only flush draws PIO is shoving at some frequency are KQss, KJss and low ones like 54ss. Having Ks blocks most of that, and so even at equilibrium BB won't bluff shove many missed flush draws on these runouts, yet KsK prefers flatting. On higher connected cards there can be some bluff shoving from some AXss hands like AJss, but not that much and only on a few offsuit Q and J runouts. So in summary, flush draws are barely shoving the river at equilibrium, yet KsK is still called pure.
Id agree with OP. And the concern isn't only to lose value from the draws playing bbx its that some of the value hands will catch a scary runout and play bbxf when on the turn they could both - value and draws - play bet betcall.
And we're not losing any ev by having really weak range on the river on blank runouts since OOP just chicken check these runouts.
You can level yourself a lot in these spots,but for every guy who bets stack-size because "it looks weaker". There's some guy who bets it as a bluff "because it looks stronger'.
22:55 You mentioned shoving is very marginal given the calling range. What are your thoughts on blocking river 10-33% size? Also, if you do block the river are you block + folding? Which value hands would you include in the block sizing, QQ, JJ, QJ, AsKs?
I don't know, I guess small has to better than big, but I'm really not that clear on IP calling range here, unless someone calls with JThh, KJhh, AJhh or spite calls A7cc,88 or something. It seems like we are just behind range on this river and there isn't much we can do except bluff-catcher.
It's pretty marginal -- I'd c/c hoping AKo, 98, hearts floated here enough. It's pretty high up in our range so we should see lots of check-backs wins if he's not bluffing here much.
I tried to run this one on PIO, and can't find out the answer to whether we can block the river, because BB is supposed to range check the J turn after being 50% on flop and being this deep. My sim is showing range check on any Q or J, and on Ts. The spades in particular are bad because IP should have some turned flush draws which means there are even fewer rivers on which BB's big pairs can get value, and the stack depth is punitive especially when OOP. So it appears the turn is also a big blunder, betting 75% is a 3BB mistake compared to checking.
23.12 - JT9ss
PIO suggests a range check here on this board as it's one of the worst boards for BB. In reality I see lots of people cbet it, like villain did, especially with hands that don't like checking, like AK, flush draws etc. Did a quick node lock, and PIO will raise nearly 25% of the time, even with hands like 5s5 and 6s6 at some frequency. How would you react in game to facing a bet here if you were IP?
I get little worried that these type of boards are just underfolded from OOP compared to equilibrium so I tend to bluff-catch aggressively and not bluff raise much. As you point out lots of guys are going to feel forced to bet AK or AQ here, but they would check "TT-AA" because it's a bad board. Just thinking a little about range -- bluff raise might be okay (though generically it's not much a profit center).
Yeh, I guess that most draws are reasonably high equity draws and BB unlikely to fold to a single raise too often. The prospect of raising 5s5 and barreling multiple streets doesn't seem too fun!
We saw a lot of spots where people bet too thin on the river for value by shoving. I think a lot of the hands should have been just checked, but some should have blocked for value as best option, e.g. the last hand AQ on AAK8J
i think it's a really common theme in these pots, where OOP started with quite a strong range, but by the river these hands have between 50-80% equity against ranges and OOP doesn't really adjust to the new situation.
Yeh it seems like most people don't know how to play the tighter spots too well, perhaps in part because most people study later position spots way more and fail to adjust enough when in earlier position spots.
Hi Tyler,
8:10 you said his turn barrel is an equity play and that there isn't a lot of fold eq. Do you dislike the barrel? I feel like there may be enough pocket pairs and board pairs that may fold and he sets up a river jam.
10:50 you said getting 3 streets with ak was a bit too thin. Which street should we drop off? Should we look to chk turn more?
14:15 if the river bet is too thin, is it marginal to even chk call the river with aa?
I think the combo is probably the worst open ended straight draw to choose to barrel blocking the 4 obvious folds on this turn (KdJd, KdQd, AdQd, AdJd). It could still be profitable if your opponent was particularly loose passive or nitty, but I think against a solver-type strategy, it's probably quite poor.
With AKo, I'd argue that we should be looking for two streets here and the river should be a mix-call, we are okay on turn as a v-bet, but once he gets to fold flush-draws and some Ax combos, the river bet is quite poor.
With AA, check-calling is going to be close without the As: AQss, ATss are guaranteed bluffs. The threshold for check-calling is 33% equity against the betting range, where as the threshold for value-betting is 51% equity against the calling range. It's a lot easier to clear 33% than it is 51%.
Very well done video! I like the holdemeq work and the compare/contrast board runouts. When running bad I think its easy, for me at least, to fall into the trap of just auto pilot with top pair and then getting upset when the board evolved into being unfavorable and I jam into 2p+. This is a good reminder to take into account what can call and what the tendencies of the pool are with what they will blast off with as a bluff.
I liked the analysis of the last hand AQhh. I've seen regs take a QJdd type hand and still try to bluff jam river when checked to. That really tilts this to being a razor thin marginal jam by AQhh and given pool tendency in my experience this is a better c/c.
Nice video! in AK call down hand it is kinda obvious that AK is going to be better if he bluffs all JT QJ QT, it d be nice imho to add hands like A4 A5 in a bluffing region, with which solver doesn't pull the trigger but imho population will with a reasoning that hero unblocks fds and can target TT-JJ that block our perceived bluffs etc.
There are plenty of ways to exploit an always call with AKo, but in anonymous pool, it's a little tricky, because JJ-TT is still going to be called the majority of the time (it beats far more hands), so trying to block AK and not block JJ-TT is going to be a mistake.
you talked about in this hand that its really hard for KK to be bluffing making it a bit of a easy fold for JJ
something ive noticed in the pools im playing in is that most of the regs cannot resist sizing up without the nuts. they wont shove without a decent hand. Or its a cooler post flop.
18:30 this hand you mentioned you dont like jamming here with KK, do you prefer going like 1/3 or trying to go for the check raise because you kind of dominate this board texture
haha we got lost heuristic. when were barreling and get there is always funny.
are we betting 1/3 the on the river because spades got there on the turn?
maybe get some calls from kx
Loading 40 Comments...
8:20 with KK on T93ss-6x thoughts on raising all in on the turn given there is going to be 0.5 SPR on the river? Given the limited sample of hands raising all in on the turn feels like the better play as majority of players will play B-B-XF? I know its filtered for the triple barrel, so obviously you only flatted all these turns, but in general just shoving turn with your most vulnerable value hands?
I'm not really why we need shove here KsKd "for protection", his bluffs have maximum 25% equity against us and we have enough equity against range to at least roll for a call on every river.
Tyler Forrester I am not shoving for protection per say. I think a lot of players play B-B-X and give up with their flush draws / combo draws as solver says they should a lot of the time because of negative blockers. However, they will play B-BC vs a shove with these draws quite often, so because they are less likely to bluff the river (24-28%) of the time but call with their draws at a high frequency I think shoving the turn is just more of a value shove.
We have the Ks so the his combo draw/give up range is going to vanishing small -- like AQss (supposed to check turn), AJss, QJss + random spades (which probalby just barrel because 76ss isn't really blocking anything in these positions).
PIO likes shoving KK but only without the spade. Like Tyler Forrester said the Ks is a very important blocker when ranges are very tight. On most brick runouts the only flush draws PIO is shoving at some frequency are KQss, KJss and low ones like 54ss. Having Ks blocks most of that, and so even at equilibrium BB won't bluff shove many missed flush draws on these runouts, yet KsK prefers flatting. On higher connected cards there can be some bluff shoving from some AXss hands like AJss, but not that much and only on a few offsuit Q and J runouts. So in summary, flush draws are barely shoving the river at equilibrium, yet KsK is still called pure.
Id agree with OP. And the concern isn't only to lose value from the draws playing bbx its that some of the value hands will catch a scary runout and play bbxf when on the turn they could both - value and draws - play bet betcall.
And we're not losing any ev by having really weak range on the river on blank runouts since OOP just chicken check these runouts.
17:50 thoughts on BB betting the exact stack sizes and not just shoving all in? Sign of strength that he is paying attention to the stack size?
You can level yourself a lot in these spots,but for every guy who bets stack-size because "it looks weaker". There's some guy who bets it as a bluff "because it looks stronger'.
its just a h2n feature, OOP might have put his entire stack left but only effective stacks shows
22:55 You mentioned shoving is very marginal given the calling range. What are your thoughts on blocking river 10-33% size? Also, if you do block the river are you block + folding? Which value hands would you include in the block sizing, QQ, JJ, QJ, AsKs?
I don't know, I guess small has to better than big, but I'm really not that clear on IP calling range here, unless someone calls with JThh, KJhh, AJhh or spite calls A7cc,88 or something. It seems like we are just behind range on this river and there isn't much we can do except bluff-catcher.
Tyler Forrester so you would rather just XC with KQc or XF? And XC > than Block + Fold?
It's pretty marginal -- I'd c/c hoping AKo, 98, hearts floated here enough. It's pretty high up in our range so we should see lots of check-backs wins if he's not bluffing here much.
I tried to run this one on PIO, and can't find out the answer to whether we can block the river, because BB is supposed to range check the J turn after being 50% on flop and being this deep. My sim is showing range check on any Q or J, and on Ts. The spades in particular are bad because IP should have some turned flush draws which means there are even fewer rivers on which BB's big pairs can get value, and the stack depth is punitive especially when OOP. So it appears the turn is also a big blunder, betting 75% is a 3BB mistake compared to checking.
Thanks Matt, that makes a lot sense given how condense preflop ranges are here and how little equity 88-TTs have here even against a range bet.
23.12 - JT9ss
PIO suggests a range check here on this board as it's one of the worst boards for BB. In reality I see lots of people cbet it, like villain did, especially with hands that don't like checking, like AK, flush draws etc. Did a quick node lock, and PIO will raise nearly 25% of the time, even with hands like 5s5 and 6s6 at some frequency. How would you react in game to facing a bet here if you were IP?
I get little worried that these type of boards are just underfolded from OOP compared to equilibrium so I tend to bluff-catch aggressively and not bluff raise much. As you point out lots of guys are going to feel forced to bet AK or AQ here, but they would check "TT-AA" because it's a bad board. Just thinking a little about range -- bluff raise might be okay (though generically it's not much a profit center).
Yeh, I guess that most draws are reasonably high equity draws and BB unlikely to fold to a single raise too often. The prospect of raising 5s5 and barreling multiple streets doesn't seem too fun!
We saw a lot of spots where people bet too thin on the river for value by shoving. I think a lot of the hands should have been just checked, but some should have blocked for value as best option, e.g. the last hand AQ on AAK8J
i think it's a really common theme in these pots, where OOP started with quite a strong range, but by the river these hands have between 50-80% equity against ranges and OOP doesn't really adjust to the new situation.
Yeh it seems like most people don't know how to play the tighter spots too well, perhaps in part because most people study later position spots way more and fail to adjust enough when in earlier position spots.
Hi Tyler,
8:10 you said his turn barrel is an equity play and that there isn't a lot of fold eq. Do you dislike the barrel? I feel like there may be enough pocket pairs and board pairs that may fold and he sets up a river jam.
10:50 you said getting 3 streets with ak was a bit too thin. Which street should we drop off? Should we look to chk turn more?
14:15 if the river bet is too thin, is it marginal to even chk call the river with aa?
Thanks!
I think the combo is probably the worst open ended straight draw to choose to barrel blocking the 4 obvious folds on this turn (KdJd, KdQd, AdQd, AdJd). It could still be profitable if your opponent was particularly loose passive or nitty, but I think against a solver-type strategy, it's probably quite poor.
With AKo, I'd argue that we should be looking for two streets here and the river should be a mix-call, we are okay on turn as a v-bet, but once he gets to fold flush-draws and some Ax combos, the river bet is quite poor.
With AA, check-calling is going to be close without the As: AQss, ATss are guaranteed bluffs. The threshold for check-calling is 33% equity against the betting range, where as the threshold for value-betting is 51% equity against the calling range. It's a lot easier to clear 33% than it is 51%.
such a good video : data point start, hh game review and then some in depth analysis
Thanks Ben, appreciate the love!
Very well done video! I like the holdemeq work and the compare/contrast board runouts. When running bad I think its easy, for me at least, to fall into the trap of just auto pilot with top pair and then getting upset when the board evolved into being unfavorable and I jam into 2p+. This is a good reminder to take into account what can call and what the tendencies of the pool are with what they will blast off with as a bluff.
I liked the analysis of the last hand AQhh. I've seen regs take a QJdd type hand and still try to bluff jam river when checked to. That really tilts this to being a razor thin marginal jam by AQhh and given pool tendency in my experience this is a better c/c.
Thanks AJM, I always appreciate your input!
Nice video! in AK call down hand it is kinda obvious that AK is going to be better if he bluffs all JT QJ QT, it d be nice imho to add hands like A4 A5 in a bluffing region, with which solver doesn't pull the trigger but imho population will with a reasoning that hero unblocks fds and can target TT-JJ that block our perceived bluffs etc.
There are plenty of ways to exploit an always call with AKo, but in anonymous pool, it's a little tricky, because JJ-TT is still going to be called the majority of the time (it beats far more hands), so trying to block AK and not block JJ-TT is going to be a mistake.
Another wicked video here Tyler thank you
Think this hands classic cooler, played fine by you and villain imo
Only other option I guess is if your 4 betting pre but the flat seems good
I think river is likely closer than you'd suspect here with AK.
you talked about in this hand that its really hard for KK to be bluffing making it a bit of a easy fold for JJ
something ive noticed in the pools im playing in is that most of the regs cannot resist sizing up without the nuts. they wont shove without a decent hand. Or its a cooler post flop.
I think most humans are biased toward being greedy, but people will come through and switch the paradigm.
18:30 this hand you mentioned you dont like jamming here with KK, do you prefer going like 1/3 or trying to go for the check raise because you kind of dominate this board texture
I think 1/3rd is probably that most consistent with extracting value (targeting pocket pairs) while still always some bluff-raises.
![enter image description
haha we got lost heuristic. when were barreling and get there is always funny.
are we betting 1/3 the on the river because spades got there on the turn?
maybe get some calls from kx
It might be a prayer that somebody calls, because the bluffs here are really hard to pull.
sucks the board didnt pair here for our friend with kks here, just a cooler cat really do anything
yeah, just normal stuff.
Be the first to add a comment
You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.