Railbirding with Tyler: $50/$100 w/ the Best in the Business (part 2)
Posted by Tyler Forrester
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Great video, Tyler!
At 28:15, i really doubt katya will find enough bluffs on the river, he will have like 130 combos of A highs. and only 32 combos of pairs. So i think linus should always fold K high or worst?
It's less clear because Katya could have some Q or J high hands as well plus some chops with K-high. Definitely if its completely polarized it would be an easy fold.
Thanks Tyler, these analyses of high stakes hands are definitely interesting.
For what it's worth, while perhaps not solver recommended, I do really like Katya's small bets on the turn (and ja.sam.gale's on the river). They can be pretty damn annoying to play against when ranges are pretty wide, and I generally am of the opinion that putting your opponent in a spot they don't like to be in is usually good.
I agree so maybe the question is what adaptation makes these suboptimal because the solver uses the smaller size rarely?
Sweet video. Throwing in some sims along with the analysis would be cool, too.
Great suggestion! Maybe in the next video, I'll do some sim work.
Why do you think the guys on the right are playing so shallow?
Basically, the shortest stack wins in these games from a theoretical perspective, because the larger stacks need to make -EV plays at 40bbs for postflop and information hiding reasons.
They are also probably just keeping the game going in in case the fish on the left able wants to play a 2nd table.
Excellent video and analyses! Very insightful.
Thanks SoundSpeed! Appreciate the love!
Hey, Tyler Forrester - Thanks for another excellent video. I really appreciate the depth you are able to cover while still getting through a substantive amount of hands/spots/situations. Is there any way you would be willing to give me a dumbed down summary of what "one minus alpha" refers to (as mentioned @25:27) and how it applies to the spot with J8 facing a river check raise, or how it applies to poker decisions in general? Sorry, as much as I seriously respect and wish I could understand math—and I envy those who can—I'm going to need this in some sort of figurative of phenomenological language =) Thanks, Tyler!
1-alpha is simple, its the breakeven number on a bluff. If I fold more than this number, the bluff makes money and if I fold less then the bluff loses money.
1 - alpha is the theoretical minimum defense frequency vs a specific bet size where alpha = betsize/(betsize+potsize), which is the most useful vs a perfectly polarized range. There are some videos on the site that discuss it in more detail and in other situations such as this one: https://www.runitonce.com/poker-training/videos/improving-on-1-a
Great video! About the 86235 hand at 24:30, tbh I think PIO uses the small turn delay c-bet quite frequently, also does according to my sim in this situation (board + SPR), although not too much on 3d. Light red represents 30% pot bet
I guess the main problem of using it may be the value loss as a single size on many cards and the difficulty of balancing it when using several sizes
On the river, it seems like Katya missed indeed a river value bet with J8o (~78% equity), although it's close and would require small size.
Thanks for the excellent analysis! I agree that 30% is used reasonably often especially on board pairs. River play here probably depends on the number of bet sizes in Katya's turn range. It looks like in your sim, it's pretty rare to get to the river after betting 30% delayed turn probe.
15 minute, you talking about BB folding turn range vs IP (Katya) bet, and saying 20-30% if ''right''. I would like to disagree, as I see situation BB got very bad turn card and after raising quite often on the flop he just have to play high % checking strategy and folding a lot vs bet. Basically vs small size he suppose to fold maybe 20% less than vs 1/2.
1st picture turn strategy for BB
2nd picture response vs 1/3 bet by IP (preferred size and used ~55% of the time)
EQ on the turn for BB 43%, compare to 7d where he has 50%
Great catch Jeff! -- that must be an especially bad turn card, usually mdf is a good bench mark in these situations, but it definitely breaks down here.
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