My Take on High Stakes Poker
Posted by Tyler Forrester
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Really great to get your analysis on these hands.
With the first hand and dwan making a small investment to try and hit his hand, you said that he will make enough when he hits to overcome the times he doesn't.
I still see a lot of play like this, especially in tournaments. I have seen some of the bigger winners do this to an extreme degree. If you play like that, it seems it's not enough to rely on hitting your hand. You have to be able to take the pot away when you miss.
As solvers have become more widely used, it seems players have gotten more sticky and it isn't as easy to just take pots away. It seems like this sort of strategy may have some merit, but isn't as viable as it was as little as 3-5yrs ago. What are your thoughts on the ultra lag style nowadays?
Thanks!
It was a primary adaption to playing loose passive opponents who tended to overvalue overpairs multiway and have obvious overfold nodes in small pots.
It's much much worse today.
1) most opponents might call closer to MDF, but they don't tend to make the giant mistakes with overpairs that you see Eli make here. It also turns out that having nodes where everyone overfolds by a large margin adds lots of value to these type of calls, because the bluffs sometimes make large amounts of money.
2) Opponents behind are much much less likely to play "nice" and call rather than squeeze. Squeezes are disastrous to the loose calls, because you now lose the full raise (which never happens on the call nodes).
Hey Tyler another great video man thank you. Classic hands!
Let’s say we had a Time Machine, took a gto solver machine and flopped it into this game specifically. With all the wacky stuff going on between the pros and the recs, along with variance, pre flop, post flop tendencies. would the solver just dominate the game over a decent sample size?
You'd need some different preflop ranges, remove the small bet sizes for your opponent, and then get nodelocking.
Yes, but I don't think you'd guess why -- which is I think the problem of being over critical of 2010 era poker. Like literally 10s of millions of people played no-limit in this period and maybe a handful came up with the right GTO adaptions. It's pretty unintuitive.
I think the 2 hands involving Dwan are partly the result of previous seasons of high stakes poker, where he made some crazy bluffs. He ran over the table with some fairly crazy hands. I'm sure the players at the table saw this and think that Dwan is going crazy with bluffs so they think they can call down light vs him plus they don't want to get bluffed especially with the cameras rolling.
I still think its just a fundamental misunderstanding of how to deal with a good player who "bluffs". It's very likely those extra bluffs just moved him closer to equilibriumish frequencies, because the era was so under bluffed.
Sometimes Dwan pulled some crazy moves with complete airballs that had absolutely no business being in the hand. But yes, I agree that the adjustments the players made against a player perceived to be bluff heavy were not really the best adjustments.
FYI Daniel bet ~pot on this flop, not half pot. Probably one of the reasons Phil pulled this face!
Thanks Matt! I missed that. Yeah Phil should just fold. It's crystal clear multiway. The only continues will have top pair (also partially folded) and 2nd 3rd pair with backdoor flushes.
Given what we know now, it seems like one of the worst plays you could make with K5 here. I remember through high stakes poker Daniel ran really badly and got drawn out on a lot, was this a reaction to that, and him trying to push people out of the pot? Either way, it turned out fairly well for him in some ways given that he got a call on the flop
matlittle yeah so bad my mind didn’t recognize it. Daniel is also more mixed game/tournament, so I guess the blunder is more explainable.
Tyler,
Nice take on this high stakes poker episode. Entertaining to watch how these guys played back then.
Thanks TripSevens! I appreciate the comment and the love.
Tyler,
On the first hand where Elezra faces a raise from Dwan with QQ vs 97s on 973 rainbow and he decides to 3 bet, if Dwan just calls the 3 bet here, what is Elezra planning on doing on blank turn cards. Seems like he does a lot of checking and when facing a bet, he has no idea what to do. I agree with you that these guys are probably not playing a lot of no limit cash back then and when they did, they were playing against rec players so they didn't have to play all that great to win in those games. I guess some of their play could be affected by this being a tv show where they are expected to provide some entertainment/excitement in the hands they played.
Thanks Tyler.
I'd suspect most players end up jamming QQ on turn -- not knowing what else to do. The trickier play is to check/call to widen the bluffing range and assume that the medium strength value will put more money in on the river.
Hey Tyler, love this format and would love to see more vids in the future analyzing live cash games. In the future, would like to see you analyze different hands than ones that other RIO coaches have already analyzed. Also in the last hand, Negreanu bets full pot, not half pot. Thanks Tyler!
Thanks FBB! I’ll keep this in mind when I shoot my next videos.
first 10min I like the analogy of QQ on a King high board where QQ is good 4 out of 5 times. Makes bet folding MW with over pairs vs equity driven ranges a pretty easy strategy. Just need the discipline to bet + Fold. So many players with QQ here just hope you have JJ/TT here and pay off.
Yeah mistakes like paying off too light really encourage more speculative calls preflop.
17min I like Elky! He broke the record for most SNG tables. He helps grow the game! Then coming from starcraft as a professional gamer. It helped people mass table back then.
Yeah it wasn’t meant as disrespect. He’s been a great ambassador for the game.
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