Really great questions!

On ATs on 98725, I think you're right that the call was very mariginal and I might have been to hopeful for offsuit broadway combos that may or may not have been in his range.

With Ako on low board vs button bet. Yes for sure -- basically mathematically it's a big mistake to fold more against small than against big and the random player will choose lots of random sizings for bluffs.

24:00
Depends pretty heavily on the rec here about whether jamming is good or bad. There's definitely some where this the best option and there are others where it is very bad. I think idea is to know your player. Against an unknown, I'd prefer to jam weaker here so I need a lower EV threshold to cross to make jamming more profitable than calling.

about AThh hand it does bad job of blocking villain possible bluffs Ahigh or Txcompare to any other bluffcatcher: GTNO. Would be super silly if he decide to bluff AJo there and you call :///

And you mentioned few times on the river that you have to defend X of your range, when in real life you don't need too. Because in those situations villains bluffs
have showdown equity, in that case we can overfold to some extent

Jeff_

For sure, I'd be happily willing to fold KT here for example, because it's so far behind range that it really never can win. With AT, it's a little greyer because of the KJo, KTo combos that are possible. Definitely a better heuristic is to call stronger hands to prevent random exploitation from merged bluffs.

That being said, if we truly were playing perfect information computer poker, this type of thinking can be exploited by thinking more deeply about blockers, so it can be more ambiguous then it appears at first.

So in this example AT, KT would be a worse bluff than KQ here if I was playing just by my hand strength.

Most of these hands require me to win 30 percent of the time to breakeven. The average final pot size is $700 dollars. If I win 35 percent of these, which apparently looks terrible, I win $35 dollars every hand. $35*20 is $700 dollars. I think that would pay for your elite membership for 6 months give or take.

I do get it :)

Thanks man, I appreciate the love!

I think the main idea is that the solvers recommend it slightly. I'm not sure that anyone has gotten more in-depth here as to reasoning.

Some arguments for it.

1) Bigger sizing induces more folds, which makes postflop less common and likely easier.
2) Solvers do it.
3) People might overfold or overcall to a new sizing that they are unfamiliar with.

Some arguments against it:

1) Your preflop range needs to structured differently than a smaller range

2) Unfamiliar ranges go both ways -- people might be stronger in situations and bluffs and valuebet ranges will be narrower.

3) Learning new preflop through river situations is expensive and their needs to be a clear value gain to doing it. I personally don't think a third decimal point change in solver output is enough.

Thanks sippin_criss! Appreciate the love :)

I'm a little hesitant to show the inverse, because those are almost all actual GTO mistakes that if people knew I made, they could gain a massive amount of EV against me.

Hahaha, yeah recreational players are so incredibly random with range construction. They really are trying to do whatever to win pots. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't :)

Me: "Oh. He didn't have a missed flush draw at all. Huh. That sucks. Oh, welllllllllllooOHHH!!! I still won! I'm actually a genius!!!"

Hahaha, you are genius!

I tend to agree with you here, given my two blockers to his backdoor floats. But I think more generally, I need a checking region on these boards, because otherwise, I'm very very overcard heavy on this type of board texture.
It's even likely that I'm so overcard heavy that he could jam any pair profitable.

Wouldn't you just bet your over pairs, weaker broadways, and check back more AK AQ type hands then? Maybe check if you have KhQx or KxQh, but hold KdQs block some bdfd as well. Seems like a solid candidate.

I remember back in the day, believe it was w34zl3 from cardrunners talking about cbetting like 90% of the time as auto profit. Now everyone seems to be more worried about balance, but almost everyone is still over folding vs cbets. Most of the people I struggle against seem to just 3 bet and cbet 2/3 pot every time, followed by high frequency barrels. Hard to have a hand strong enough to stand up against it, unless I start calling down some ace highs. I even started to not have a 4 bet range in order to fight against it, but i'm frankly just get ran over by some of these individuals.

Definitely a tough opponent type to play!

Two options to exploit the players you are describing:

1) Call down lighter than you normally do
2) Raise more widely than you against tighter players.

Basically, they are putting too much money with too many hands. The ways they make money is if you overfold or you let them realize too much equity with their bluffs.

a) Calling down lighter addresses the overfolding.

b) Raising cuts their equity realization.

I'm going to punt on my exact range. However, you can do some math here and show I need fold roughly 37% of the time to a jam to make AQs or JJ a profitable jam, so my bluffing region is going to be approximately that big. I need to do more work to make calling the 4-bet less valuable for OP. I'd suggest either Monker or Pio preflop, if you want some approximate ranges.

I think this went over my head or im too tired and not thinking clearly. Can you help me out with the math part of it? The math of the cold 4 bet to be profitable? Also math of folding such hands like JJ and being exploited?

I had a hand last week on 100NL with JJ, where HJ ($50) opened $4, hero CO ($125) 3bet to $12, btn ($200) cold 4 bet to $38. This is a guy who 3 bets basically everyone and plays a 3 bet or fold strategy. He is on the tight side in terms of vpip, but does not have a calling range at all it appears. Maybe form the BB, but literally just abuses everyone. The few times I have fought back with with QQ, AQs, JJ, ATo i've seem to run into monsters. Except with ATo, i've had decent success 4 betting ATo as a bluff. So my question is I guess more on the math side.

Really good question!

There are rough numbers, but JJ when called has 36 percent equity against QQ+, AKo, AKs. So if we jam 100bbs, we lose 16bbs (88 - .36*200) when called. We are risking 16bbs to win 53.5bbs (12+38+2+1.5). We need him to fold 23% (16 / (53.5 + 16) of the time to make our jam profitable.

it always feel like exploitable poker to call JJ+ AKo after cold 4bet vs jam in those position. Since villain should never have worse pairs than JJ as a jam.
If they both deviate I assume it is more reasonalbe

Jeff_

Theoretically (This is purely theory) You'd choose either AQs or JJ to bluff-jam against the Cold 4-bet. This would make QQ, AKo indifferent to calling. If you don't jam either hand AKo is slight looser to call-off here as the cold 4-better. QQ makes maybe 2-3 bbs.

including rake? :D

You”d have to add roughly .4 combos more of bluffs :)

I did some boring math. If BU 4bets and folds vs CO shove more than 40%(too many A5s,AQs,JJ which he folds) of his range, CO can push anything with 30% equity vs calling range.
Hard to fold more than 40% though. But still even though CO can fold a lot of his range, he maybe don't want to do it because jam is more profitable

I did some boring math. If BU 4bets and folds vs CO shove more than 40%(too many A5s,AQs,JJ which he folds) of his range, CO can push anything with 30% equity vs calling range. Hard to fold more than 40% though. But still even though CO can fold a lot of his range, he maybe don't want to do it because jam is more profitable

Jeff_
Just wanted to see some combos worked out to see what 40% looks like. If the cold 4 bet range is JJ+, AQs+, AK+, A5s.

JJ (6)
QQ (6)
KK (6)
AA (6)
AQs (4)
AKs (4)
AKo (12)
A5s (4)

If hero stacks off QQ+ AK thats 36 combos out of 48, so hero is only folding 25% of his cold 4 bet range. Is hero making a mistake by folding JJ or AQs here?

If hero stacks off QQ+,AK is going with 34 combos out of the initial 48 so he is folding roughly 30% of the range you mentioned.
I guess whats important is the range construction of each player, the dead money, the required fold equity,and Eq needed for the shove to show a profit against that range.
Saying all of this,and considering the inputs from the example of RunItTw1ce, shoving AQ would be bad against that range but JJ would be fine.
Your required fold equity would be 28% and JJ has 36% against continuing range but AQ has 25%.
Whats more important than this math and the equilab output is what´s the required cold4B range to make this move.
Long story short, it has to be 3,55 considering he is defending 2,56 (QQ+,AK)

Long story short, it has to be 3,55 considering he is defending 2,56 (QQ+,AK)

What does 3.55 and 2.56 refer to?

-3,55% is what the math says he should be cold 4 betting
-2,56% the stacking off range (QQ+,AK)
Both calculated from your example from the hand on nl100

I feel like the amount of respect cold 4 bets get, we can cold 4 bet much wider and expect players who use a 3 bet / fold strategy to fold very often. If you take a typical 3 bet range in this spot.

MP $25, CO $90, hero btn $226

Co will be 3 betting something like AJ+, KQ+, 88+, 76s+, ATBs+, A5s-A4s. Thats 11.6% of hands or 154 combos. How much of this range really continues to a cold 4 bet oop? How many combos is Cutoff supposed to continue with? Calling $136 to win $356 getting 2.61 :1 or 27% needed. I think AJ KQ AQ all fold, maybe 88-TT fold? weaker suited broadways all fold. I think this easily becomes an over fold spot for the cutoff since cold 4 bets have not really been studied that much and are generally very nutted.