$500NL: Biggest Pots Review

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$500NL: Biggest Pots Review

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Tyler Forrester

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$500NL: Biggest Pots Review

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Tyler Forrester

POSTED Feb 07, 2023

Tyler Forrester reviews the biggest pots of a freshly played session at $2/$5 that see him facing a healthy mix of value-betting and bluff-catching decisions.

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SoundSpeed 2 years, 2 months ago

Quads hand was a kick in the gut.

2:00 Will you look to bet or xr some of the lower broadway flush draws like kqss, qjss etc... Although I wonder about check raising and then having to deal with a jam.

You've referenced gto wizard a fair bit lately. Do you find it to be a good tool compared to pio despite not being able to node lock?

Thanks!

Tyler Forrester 2 years, 2 months ago

Yeah, it's kind of weird node like QQ is definitely a good hand, but I still lose somewhere between 6-12% when called.

I'm not huge fan checkraising the lower broadway flushes, because the card removal is pretty bad, like he might bet KsQo and that's the bet fold range. Additionally, if we do face a change sometimes we just have 22% equity against the nut flush and that isn't much fun either. I'm sure in technical sense at the right frequency it's fine though.

I don't have subscription, but they have free preflop ranges and they seem to have an impact on how people are approaching preflop play.

SoundSpeed 2 years, 2 months ago

So are you basically use gto wiz preflop ranges to understand how more of the population is playing?

Do you find gto wiz ranges to be reasonable?

Tyler Forrester 2 years, 2 months ago

Yeah, I mean as computer models go they are as strong as any. There's some deviations I use in early position play away from the computer models because the 5-6 handed models are a worse approximations (nash equilibrium means something else multiway and doesn't get the same guarantees).

Holonomy 2 years, 1 month ago

Not sure what you mean by this. A Nash equilibrium always means the same thing. No player may unilaterally improve his equity (key being unilaterally). Or do you mean the fact that these algorithms do not converge to a Nash equilibrium (they converge to a coarse correlated equilibrium although these are still strong strategies).

That said what makes you sure that your deviations are better than the solve? Empirical data? I guess that get tied in with an effective population exploit as well.

Tyler Forrester 2 years, 1 month ago

Holonomy

Okay, so I'm going to try to make this a little more readable. Basically, empirical analysis is always going to be a key part of the game, because a nash equilibrium isn't a maximum value strategy. It leaves money on the table against particularly terrible players. Obvious example is rock paper scissors, nash is to play 1/3rd rock, 1/3rd scissors, 1/3rd paper. We play against some who only plays rock. We tie with this player using nash. An exploitative strategy wins 100%. The 2nd reason is a bit more esoteric and I go into detail below about it.

The nash equilibrium is built from 5 other strategies which guarantees that the 6th strategy can't unilaterally improve. If one of the those 5 strategies isn't play the nash equilibrium strategy, the equilibrium response for the other 4 players change.

Since the equilibrium response is never played by 5 players at the table at one time, our response as hopefully one of the nash equilibrium players changes.

This means that there is an infinite number of nash equilibrium strategy pairs in 6-hand. Since there's an infinite number, there is effectively no individual nash equilibrium strategy in 6-max.

5 players could band together to make one side of the nash equilibrium, but I can't imagine playing in that game other than for study.

I'm not against using computer simulation as a base for 6 max poker, but you should be aware that the computer model is a model. And to quote George Box: "All models are wrong, some are useful".

You can see this in the scientific literature on poker bots. The headsup bot was killer winning something like 50bb/100 against a set of poker "pros". The 6-max bot won something like 4bb with a clear recreational player in the game.

RunItTw1ce 2 years, 2 months ago

3Min with AKs on 854ss-J- 8 board I see rec players make these calls and I view them as entitlement tilt for having such a strong hand but bricking out. When a rec makes some strange hero call with missed spades and says something like "I thought you missed your flush draw" but you just have Td9d and unblock spades and ace high. I always found that funny. You have spades and put me on missed spades?!?!? I know you said PIO calls this 20% of the time but after B25-B75-B75 line I am just folding. The sizing is too reggish on the flop I want to fold thinking they do not bluff enough. Hard to name too many bluffs here holding spades yourself.

Tyler Forrester 2 years, 2 months ago

so there's only about 11-12 value combos, 8x is a rarely turn bet and Jx is a rare river bet on the 8. I need 33% equity so he needs to find 4-5 combos of bluffs. A2s,A3s,A6s,A7s,T9s,QTs,KQo,KTs are all candidates with a heavy preference on no-spades.

And I think if you start clicking through a polarized bluff-range that is weighted away from spades -- that AsKs here is actually better here than TT.

The key here on the call and this absolutely key is that we need reg with a polarized range, because against rec he might erratically bluff 22 here, so we actually lose to some bluffs.

RunItTw1ce 2 years, 2 months ago

And I think if you start clicking through a polarized bluff-range that is weighted away from spades -- that AsKs here is actually better here than TT.

Shocking when I first read this, but makes sense double blocking the bluffing range.

RunItTw1ce 2 years, 2 months ago

26 min on Q65-Acc-Qc board mentioned not value betting AK because there are not many bluffs. Would you turn 65s, A6s, A5s into bluffs? If villain bets flop and turn he is unlikely to have Qx right? When he checks river he is capping his range at a lot of Ax. Feels like a free roll value bet that can get looked up by ATs AJo etc. Maybe get AK off a chop if you bet big enough?

Im not thinking much of balancing my river bets with bluffs here but more focused on villain capping his range. Bad thought process?

Tyler Forrester 2 years, 2 months ago

I'm assuming he can hand read, but turning top pair into a bluff is pretty absurd at 5 preflop spr. You are betting A6s,A5s to make AJ,AT indifferent, which the range is so small, the ev add is going to be really really small.

Maybe I was off on counts, but it's pretty hard to get to enough bluffs here even with 65s being jammed. I get come up with 87 (3 combos) 65 2 combos, 76s as bluffs and even with those and no AK bets, AT has 27% equity and it needs 29%.

TRUEPOWER 6 months ago


3:00
Such a tough runout facing this jam as well. When we’re bluff catching, is worse to have spades because it’s less likely for our opponent to have spades be bluffing?

TRUEPOWER 6 months ago

4 bet pot, with the jam here on this turn, I do like because he can have Ak I guess aq with a d. I guess he can have a flush too but we have some equity against, a6ss just wild don’t see that to much in 4 bet pots

Tyler Forrester 6 months ago

People like to bluff and raising keeps them from bluffing so flatting is basically always preferred with something this strong.

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