Facing a Flop Checkraise
Posted by Tyler Forrester
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Hi Tyler, I really appreciate this check raise video as one of my biggest weaknesses. Because the pool under check raises, my fold vs XR tends to be very high! In terms of GTO #s its definitely a leak of mine, but as an exploit maybe ok!?!?
Early in the video you mentioned when someone bets $66.93 on one hand and person bets $66.93 on another hand it is most likely just a hot key. From What I noticed is you can just look at the pot odds to determine the player more often than their actual bet size amount. When you get 25% you know they are just clicking 1/2 pot hot key, 30% for the 3/4 hot key, and 20% for the 1/3 hot key. It's mostly when I see something like 27-28% for the 2/3 hot key or something like 23% for a little above half pot that stands out for certain regs. Hopefully you update to windows 10+ soon and get to use Jurojin more often as well as the pot odds they offer.
I don't really have much data to support that at least at 2/5. It's roughly 17% c/r vs small bet which is I believe actually 2-3% more than the sims with flop IP 3-betting.
I think looking at it from pot odds perspective is smart. It really gives great identification to the 26% button.
22min: Are you following solver here? Hands like AK is folding about 75% of the time after a XR + 125% turn barrel. Mostly hands like A6s/A7s, 2 pair, sets, straight, & FD continue. I tend to defend wider than this because people tend to give up with their draws on the river, so a lot of these AQ/AK hands I'll end up calling turn with as well. Maybe a bit too sticky with 76s 54s. Not sure how big of a leak this is, but I tend to make them fire 3 before I give up.
I don't think there is a reg on earth who is v-betting less that two pair for these sizing on this board, so defense just becomes about bluffing frequency or if unknown not giving too much value to the nut hands. Practically AK is probably better than A3 because of the "bluffs" with A6, A5 that happen sometimes.
On the flop my sim is betting 60% of the time, rather than cbetting range on this board, so the average hand strength of our value hands in the cbetting range increases compared to a spot where we cbet range. So when we call the check raise we can be more selective with which hands we call in comparison, and same goes for when we face the massive turn bet. The pic shows that at equilibrium the BB should check around 50% on average on the river to us. For your exploit to work I think it would require the BB to mostly give up the river with premium bluff candidates like 54, 64, etc that have a pair plus straight blocker.
Last hand of the video I found interesting that AKd AQd are pure folding if it was HU BTN vs BB facing a XR flop 100% and barrel 125%. I know not the same situation, but AJd calling and the Kd / Qd folding blocking some of the 2nd and 3rd FD combos. Folding some over pairs with a diamond blocking the bluffing range as well.
Probably another reason why my redline plummets. I tend to not fold TPGK+ as much or NFD / combo draws almost ever, so I end up in this BC-C-F line against the XR-B-B line. Mostly relying on the river being under bluffed and my over cards being live at some frequency of the time. See players take this line with 99/TT or A8 etc some of the time where they are just overly merged so completely throws off whats right in practice vs solver land.
I wouldn't put a ton of stock into solver's idea here with flush draws. They are all going to be very very close to 0 and AdKd, AdQd, remove some semibluffs so they go negative. But plenty of players here aren't going to be perfectly solid on the turn and have some random hands in range that solvers don't really use.
Great part of the game tree to cover. Dealing with flop and turn chk raises is an obstacle for me. Maybe dealing with turn chk raises could be another vid.
You were not on board with the turn sizings in the first two hands. Should those bets generally psb or overbet? Is block ever a thing?
Thanks!
There might be some scenarios where block makes sense, it's generally done when we have lots of marginal hands that would be bluff-catchers to a bet and also lose some equity to check throughs. Since c-r ranges are pretty polarized (nuts, draw, weak draw), it doesn't seem like the range matches the block-bet very well, unless a draw comes in (switching two pair hands to bluff-catchers). If you construct a c-r range with lots of top pair type hands, block would become much more common because these hands generally are bluff-catchers in big pots and also need some protection.
5.50 - AJ3dd8
I think when regs check raise the flop on a board like this and then bet 2/3 on the turn (or some other non-geometric sizing) they are likely just choosing the wrong bet size, rather than playing the wrong range. I.e. they are still very polarised but not betting big enough because they don't know the correct sizing. If it's a rec then of course they can turn up with merged/thin hands like top pair or something completely random and they wanted to attack your "weak" betsizing.
I tend to agree, but I think the smaller sizing does put more AT, AQ in the range and makes it slightly more likely he's rec.
38.40 J95sss2T
Ran this board in PIO and it's quite interesting. I used much tighter BB flatting range, so might skew the results somewhat.
70% turn sizing from villain is good - BTN should already have flushes as a decent percentage of their range so betting a geometric sizing would stop the BB from betting anything less than a Q flush for value.
AsX is almost a pure giveup for BB on the river as it blocks BTN's natural folds.
BTN's natural bluffs are all AsX hands too, so the check shove with AsX by BB is losing ~5bb. Instead the BB should bluff shove a small fraction of the KsT, QsT and Ts8/To8s hands that get to the river in this line.
Flushes less than K high flush are mixing fold vs the check shove, although I am using way tighter BB flatting range than in reality. TsXs flushes are the worst due to Ts being heavily represented in the BB's check shoving bluff range.
Thanks for your work on this, I missed Ts was the best bluffing card.
Hey Tyler how’s it going man wonderful video
Was discussing this spot a few days ago with run it twice. when we should be xr flops or when we’re facing check raises ourselves.
A lot of the time in the blinds and we hit a set with a low pair, on a board that favours our range. Just feels so obvious some times when we do go for the xr vs when we slow play and go for check jam on the river, I sometimes get annoyed when we do for the xr and our opponent folds after there c bet.
Think if we have a sort of an idea on how our opponent plays helps as well.
When we face the flop xr it’s like okay. Can he have a set here? Combo draw?
So any reasonable strategy is going fold around 88% if checkraise, then bet turn and river for geometric sizings. That does not mean the line is not the highest value.
Yeah kind of what I’m talking about. Like after xr and 60ish% turn bet can our villain here have ax diamonds? Idk maybe
You can pretend to clairvoyant in the these spots, but there are only 3 combos out of a range about 106 combos that beat AJ here. So it's less the opinion he has exactly AdXd and more the opinion that he has 3-6 combos of worse hands here that would be willing to stack.
Lol I like when you explain that even if you knew he had a set of 88s we still need to continue vs the $20 bet because we can suck out 1/24 times LOL I look a this fold and say yeah that’s a good fold
Guess we can also turn equity with a 10 or q qs well
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