With the AJ hand on AQ7ssT, you decided it was definitely a blunder and worked out that you shouldn't ever fold here. You also mentioned that you think the turn might be under bluffed, and most people will bet twice here on the BTN. Given that, I'd like to know whether you would play it like PIO and shove 70% of the time, or whether you would just call with this hand. And then for the river, would you call this hand at the same frequency as PIO if you opted to call the turn and get a brick river, or would you deviate in some way?
1) Protects against higher equity draws (my back of envelope math says it's better to jam here if he has more than 15% equity with his bluffing range)
2) Closes the action -- we can't make a future mistake.
Basically, I think I should jam if I've got a a lot river cards which I feel like I'd make a mistake on (either folding when I should call or calling when I should fold). If I've got a good grasp of the bluffing region and which cards are going to be underbluffed, overbluffed then I should call.
On the protection side, I think here it's not that important because most flush-draws are checked in villain's shoes on this board and that's the only region that clears the equity threshold against AJs.
I'm inclined to call twice here (on most rivers), because the max-exploit strategy against the common mistake of always calling A5s and KQo here is to bet twice with all your bluffs and bluff less frequently on the turn.
Ts7s Hand: I would typically bluff this river for around half pot. I think you are right, that most people don't bet many Ax on the river OOP. But the line seems pretty weak to me on the river. People might find the overbet with AK/AJ on the turn, but usually nothing weaker. (This is mostly based on mid stakes live games). On the other hand, they tend to overbluff this overbet sizing on the turn, as they just don't have enough value. I would never bluff KJ on this river, as I expect to win a ton, occasionally losing to some slowplays or AK/AJ.
And I think a bet for around half pot gets him to fold KJ, KT,JT,T9, J9 and higher spades which is quite a ton. I wouldn't go to small so that he doesn't get curious with Khi.
I think your line is really viable, the main concern here is the size of the value range that wants to bet 1/2 pot. It'd seem to be maybe AJo exactly (which is 3-bet sometimes) so you'd end up with around 9 combos of values and something like 13-14 combos of bluffs. Getting 3:1 on the call, I'd think K-high would be a reasonably easy call. You could of course defect with Qx and bet smaller, but then you'd lose substantial value against Ax which is going to want to call here.
From a balance perspective there is absolutely no question that overbetting T7s makes the most sense, but it's also reasonably easy to even on the overbet size to overbluff this node given that Qxs doesn't pure call turn.
Maybe I'll shoot a video some of the insane river hero-calls I've made of the last couple of years on these types of nodes.
Yeah I agree with your concerns. But either I play GTO vs a really good opponent here and bet big, or I bet 1/2 pot vs a weaker opponent as an exploit, and then I don't care that much that my value range is really narrow. Also in an anonymous pool, it's even less of a concern to be unbalanced in this spot as I don't think the average player would call often enough with Khi in this spot. Also I usually don't check down bottom of my range out of principle unless I have a really strong read.
Truthfully, I'm not sold on my river check, but I would be shocked if it was as valuable as the solver is implying. Overbetting here is 100% viable and suggested, but again it's kind of easy to overbluff given that K-high is checking river here and most people use heuristics like bluff "unpaired" cards on river.
I think you're making really strong assumptions about the player type in this particular example. It looks like a reg following the FreeNacho style advice on this board. Flop is supposed to be overfolded by population so small bet flop to take advantage. Turn is supposed to be overfolded by population so take a lower equity hand and overbet. He had KJo in the hand which would tend to imply that he's not terribly sophisticated (plenty of showdown value would make this a lower frequency overbet), but he's definitely a professional.
Really, AQ82Q on this node most of lower stakes reg doesn't find that much of block or half~ 60% with Ax here.
and They are getting ready to call strong Ax against riverstab by BB.
So the best play vs these player types would be overbet Qx and give up bluffs
But at the same time this spot is not really easy to fix our strategy.
Because It seems like there are a lot of people on Q river who don't follow on the mdf and obviously overfold their Ax against the 1/2 stab. cuz this sizing really looks like BB gave good odds to SB and therefore BB can getting paid by Ax. So if we concern about this leveling wars, I don't know what to do.
Leveling wars are never clear, against most small stakes players I’d definitely just overbet and force them to hero call. I wouldn’t expect as many calls because most players will assume a healthy call frequency with Qx on turn.
Hey Tyler -- really educational video. In an era where all sort of sims are assessable in the blink of an eye, getting to the bottom of it and understanding the logic behind certain actions and why it's not effective in practice is the key, you explain it very well. Hopefully you will do this "blunder of the month but it's actually not" every other month --- would be fun!
15:40 I understand the logic behind both parts
1. every bet sizing needs to be balanced otherwise certain line is exploitable vs a GTO villain
2. 99 on 752 SRP board just prefers big sizing due to the nature of good equity OTF + no good turns
But I don’t quite understand how these two points related to each other.
Thanks MX404 for the kind words! I think the main point that hands should be played in many different ways on the flop to maintain the range's unexploitable property. But sometimes certain hand classes like 99 just have one clearly better line that we need to choose (the exception).
The T7s hand -- since you think the node is overbluffing when checked to BB, so if we have this read -- exploitative wise, is SB better off not throwing a tiny block for his Ax region and moving all those hands into xc?
I'm not sure, I don't think just being overbluffed here is a enough of descriptor to make that analysis. For example he could overbluff by 1-2% making a 100% call very profitable, but also only netting 1-2bb on each call. Where if we block bet, he could call worse 50% of the time and raise better 30% and we'd make 12bbs by betting, which is 10bbs better than check/calling. Even though he's overbluffing.
Tyler,
Interesting hands in this one. Having knowledge of the player pool tendencies could skew your strategy a fair amount. Don't think I would fold the AJs on turn unless I was very sure that my opponent was too value heavy. Feels like betting turn against typical rec/weak players is the way to go, check calling against stronger players and evaluate river. I agree with pretty much all of your analysis on these hands. Enjoy hearing your work your way through the hands talking about the exploits.
Great job Tyler
I think the AJ hand comes down to our opponent, are the capable of coming up with some strong value hands that can have us dominated in this node.
Feels like there’s a lot of sets, spades straights here, where AJ just seems to shrivel up in value on this AQ7T board two spades. Not sure in practice if I can find the fold but it feels like our opponent either has us dominated or has a ton of equity against us given his betting line?
The card-removal with that particular AJ combo makes it so he probably overbluffing. It was more a mistake of suits and card removal then of the power of his range.
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With the AJ hand on AQ7ssT, you decided it was definitely a blunder and worked out that you shouldn't ever fold here. You also mentioned that you think the turn might be under bluffed, and most people will bet twice here on the BTN. Given that, I'd like to know whether you would play it like PIO and shove 70% of the time, or whether you would just call with this hand. And then for the river, would you call this hand at the same frequency as PIO if you opted to call the turn and get a brick river, or would you deviate in some way?
Just to break down what the shove accomplishes:
1) Protects against higher equity draws (my back of envelope math says it's better to jam here if he has more than 15% equity with his bluffing range)
2) Closes the action -- we can't make a future mistake.
Basically, I think I should jam if I've got a a lot river cards which I feel like I'd make a mistake on (either folding when I should call or calling when I should fold). If I've got a good grasp of the bluffing region and which cards are going to be underbluffed, overbluffed then I should call.
On the protection side, I think here it's not that important because most flush-draws are checked in villain's shoes on this board and that's the only region that clears the equity threshold against AJs.
I'm inclined to call twice here (on most rivers), because the max-exploit strategy against the common mistake of always calling A5s and KQo here is to bet twice with all your bluffs and bluff less frequently on the turn.
Very nice video Tyler! You illustrated it perfectly that in certain nodes the general solver outcome are not that reliable.
Thanks Smertin!
Ts7s Hand: I would typically bluff this river for around half pot. I think you are right, that most people don't bet many Ax on the river OOP. But the line seems pretty weak to me on the river. People might find the overbet with AK/AJ on the turn, but usually nothing weaker. (This is mostly based on mid stakes live games). On the other hand, they tend to overbluff this overbet sizing on the turn, as they just don't have enough value. I would never bluff KJ on this river, as I expect to win a ton, occasionally losing to some slowplays or AK/AJ.
And I think a bet for around half pot gets him to fold KJ, KT,JT,T9, J9 and higher spades which is quite a ton. I wouldn't go to small so that he doesn't get curious with Khi.
I think your line is really viable, the main concern here is the size of the value range that wants to bet 1/2 pot. It'd seem to be maybe AJo exactly (which is 3-bet sometimes) so you'd end up with around 9 combos of values and something like 13-14 combos of bluffs. Getting 3:1 on the call, I'd think K-high would be a reasonably easy call. You could of course defect with Qx and bet smaller, but then you'd lose substantial value against Ax which is going to want to call here.
From a balance perspective there is absolutely no question that overbetting T7s makes the most sense, but it's also reasonably easy to even on the overbet size to overbluff this node given that Qxs doesn't pure call turn.
Maybe I'll shoot a video some of the insane river hero-calls I've made of the last couple of years on these types of nodes.
Yeah I agree with your concerns. But either I play GTO vs a really good opponent here and bet big, or I bet 1/2 pot vs a weaker opponent as an exploit, and then I don't care that much that my value range is really narrow. Also in an anonymous pool, it's even less of a concern to be unbalanced in this spot as I don't think the average player would call often enough with Khi in this spot. Also I usually don't check down bottom of my range out of principle unless I have a really strong read.
Truthfully, I'm not sold on my river check, but I would be shocked if it was as valuable as the solver is implying. Overbetting here is 100% viable and suggested, but again it's kind of easy to overbluff given that K-high is checking river here and most people use heuristics like bluff "unpaired" cards on river.
I think you're making really strong assumptions about the player type in this particular example. It looks like a reg following the FreeNacho style advice on this board. Flop is supposed to be overfolded by population so small bet flop to take advantage. Turn is supposed to be overfolded by population so take a lower equity hand and overbet. He had KJo in the hand which would tend to imply that he's not terribly sophisticated (plenty of showdown value would make this a lower frequency overbet), but he's definitely a professional.
Really, AQ82Q on this node most of lower stakes reg doesn't find that much of block or half~ 60% with Ax here.
and They are getting ready to call strong Ax against riverstab by BB.
So the best play vs these player types would be overbet Qx and give up bluffs
But at the same time this spot is not really easy to fix our strategy.
Because It seems like there are a lot of people on Q river who don't follow on the mdf and obviously overfold their Ax against the 1/2 stab. cuz this sizing really looks like BB gave good odds to SB and therefore BB can getting paid by Ax. So if we concern about this leveling wars, I don't know what to do.
Leveling wars are never clear, against most small stakes players I’d definitely just overbet and force them to hero call. I wouldn’t expect as many calls because most players will assume a healthy call frequency with Qx on turn.
Great vid. The fluidity of how you process your knowledge is first class.
Thank you Plouk! I really appreciate the love.
Hey Tyler -- really educational video. In an era where all sort of sims are assessable in the blink of an eye, getting to the bottom of it and understanding the logic behind certain actions and why it's not effective in practice is the key, you explain it very well. Hopefully you will do this "blunder of the month but it's actually not" every other month --- would be fun!
15:40 I understand the logic behind both parts
1. every bet sizing needs to be balanced otherwise certain line is exploitable vs a GTO villain
2. 99 on 752 SRP board just prefers big sizing due to the nature of good equity OTF + no good turns
But I don’t quite understand how these two points related to each other.
Thanks MX404 for the kind words! I think the main point that hands should be played in many different ways on the flop to maintain the range's unexploitable property. But sometimes certain hand classes like 99 just have one clearly better line that we need to choose (the exception).
25:02
Why does Jh matter here and make it the worst AJs combo EV wise?
The floats containing the Jh tend to bluff here. Since we have the Jh, he can't have the floats.
The T7s hand -- since you think the node is overbluffing when checked to BB, so if we have this read -- exploitative wise, is SB better off not throwing a tiny block for his Ax region and moving all those hands into xc?
I'm not sure, I don't think just being overbluffed here is a enough of descriptor to make that analysis. For example he could overbluff by 1-2% making a 100% call very profitable, but also only netting 1-2bb on each call. Where if we block bet, he could call worse 50% of the time and raise better 30% and we'd make 12bbs by betting, which is 10bbs better than check/calling. Even though he's overbluffing.
Tyler,
Interesting hands in this one. Having knowledge of the player pool tendencies could skew your strategy a fair amount. Don't think I would fold the AJs on turn unless I was very sure that my opponent was too value heavy. Feels like betting turn against typical rec/weak players is the way to go, check calling against stronger players and evaluate river. I agree with pretty much all of your analysis on these hands. Enjoy hearing your work your way through the hands talking about the exploits.
Great job Tyler
Also a good option with AJs! I appreciate your comments and praise.
Hey Tyler, this is one of my favourite videos you’ve done because I run a lot of my hands that I’ve played with GTO wizard,
Thanks!
Happy to help Truepower!
I think the AJ hand comes down to our opponent, are the capable of coming up with some strong value hands that can have us dominated in this node.
Feels like there’s a lot of sets, spades straights here, where AJ just seems to shrivel up in value on this AQ7T board two spades. Not sure in practice if I can find the fold but it feels like our opponent either has us dominated or has a ton of equity against us given his betting line?
The card-removal with that particular AJ combo makes it so he probably overbluffing. It was more a mistake of suits and card removal then of the power of his range.
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