33:28 you fold JJ. Is QQ a 4bet fold?

SoundSpeed Had to double check wizard in this spot myself as I was pretty torn with what to do with JJ here myself. Here is how Wizard plays this spot UTG vs BTN vs SB squeeze.

If HJ opens, btn CC, SB squeeze, now JJ seems to be more playable mixing in cold call or cold 4bet around 45% total. Probably still a fold against this pool though given 0 EV.

JJ starting to look more playable once it's a CO open and SB squeeze before you get to cold 4bet.

Thanks for questions, SoundSpeed!

I think with QJ bluff-raising the river will generate an MDF overfold, but I don't think it will be greater EV than just calling, because a lot of the extra folds are just because this line is overbluffed at these sizings. My river call is reasonably happy against 1/2 pot.

On the J6 hand, I think in general barrelling J6 pair after betting small is going to be a mistake on a drawy board. I've got plenty of semibluffs and the 6 actually interferes with the range I'm targeting to fold (6x is going to 15% of the turn fold range). The other thing to consider is that I actually beat some 6x so if he does fold it's going to be a protection bet.

I think QQ needs to be stacked at 1/2 here, because most players are going to pure shove AKo which should give us roughly 40% equity. I could be convinced to fold at 1/2 depending on range structure though. If SB is only squeezing 3-4%, QQ will be a -EV 4-bet too.

With 33 on T543cchh, in my next video, I do I deep dive into range construction and no I don't believe we need a big bet here. Even though the board looks scary, it's actually fairly dry since most players like to barrel flush draws.

Probably not in 6-max though it's possible. It's a small sample this year.

Tyler Forrester More graphs like this please! Inspiring!

The range has too tighten up pretty significantly. It's going to look really similar to a defense range from 2012 grinder with lots of good suited hands, offsuit broadways and very few Axo, X9o and offsuit connectors.

With Ad9c, I think you can make the bet and not lose a ton of EV long-term, but it's also I think very thin. You need to be ahead of the top 15% of his range, because he's going to check/fold around 70% and to be a good value bet you'll need to get called 1/2 the time by worse. I don't think it hits the top 85% given prior action. People love checking to induce bluffs on these boards, so I expect that range to have a bunch of traps. The solver is going to likely bet the hand, because he would call most nines to a small bet here so to keep the money equivalent, A9 sneaks in as a value bet.

Never cold called myself, but I do think if someone studies it, then it's fine to have as part of your range. It's just severely unstudied because of the multiway nature it creates. When you think about it, cold 4 bet AKo is more or less a bluff because players are just folding AQ to the cold 4 bet. Keeping some QQ JJ AK in your cold call range seems reasonable to me and pots play more honest MW as well. Also say you cold call 8bb (2.5 open, 8bb 3bet, hero cold calls (QQ-TT, AKo, AQs, KQs, etc) initial raiser calls. SPR is still around 4 and it's not like they can just go crazy post flop against this range because you are "capped." Plenty of strong hands in your range. Then if initial raiser 4bets you have an easy back raise QQ and AK and just fold the other stuff. That is how I see it at least. Maybe cold call 15%? I know in live poker players flat KK here all day because they don't want to 4 bet and look strong because they don't balance their 3bet and 4 bet range with bluffs, so they end up just cold calling everything. Whether it's right or wrong Idk... but seems to work and players continue to stack off QQ-TT on low flops. Hope this helps. If you discover anything please share.

I agree with you. I feel online with the level of aggression and the higher quality play in general it is easier to 4bet or fold. Live, cold calling is more prevalent. Since covid my live play has been incredibly limited so I am out of touch now. I can see your argument for cold calling and perhaps using it in a live setting where players are far weaker.

Most players chop this range out because the region is going to be relatively small like JJ and AQs, maybe AKo. With a computer like GTO wizard, you could devise a strategy that expands this range slightly so that it's less obvious what the region is and then basically take advantage of the fact that our opponent has no idea what our range looks like but we can effectively make hand regions indifferent, -EV to play. You'll see this sometimes at nose-bleeds. It's not that common under these stakes, because that level of sophistication is pretty rare in the player pool and requires a bunch of off table work to design and execute.

Thanks man, I appreciate the love!