You could block as a sort of protection play with KT on KQA, but QJ, QT are really the only combos that will call that's worse and if we bet big, I think for the most part the calling region is going to have us beat and we occasionally get checkraised bluffed which is pretty much a disaster with KT.

I think the 55 on JJ92dd is in the same situation here, where a bet on the turn is more protection oriented than value. It's possible to get called worse, but it's not that common and getting c-r is a disaster. I generally try to avoid putting myself in spots where I can make big mistakes, so forcing showdown here with 55 makes the most sense I think.

I think this combo is close and I use check here quite a bit. My principal concern is that some subset of aggro regs, will turn their small pocket pairs into bluffs here at high frequencies against checks. This particular combo really gets hurt by 100% bluff with 44-99 because I'm not going to be paying off river. The small bet isn't likely to raised by those combos, so I'm blocking to guarantee wins against his weak bluffs and then realize equity against hands like two pair which I have 25% equity against.

The sim models a high frequency raise against the 25% bet with a healthy raise frequency of KT,QT,AQ, and 3x along with Ax. If I remove those combos and node lock, I get this combo as 50% small bet and 50% check.

Interesting to raise against even a small bet, but I guess if AK/K9s are put into the larger bet category then small bet is going to be some what capped. I do like to donk lead some small flush draws for 1/3 or 1/4 sizing after XC flop because people get concerned from 2 pairs or slow played sets or weirdly made straight, so you end up setting your own price as you said in the video. Other wise when you check and they go ham with TPTK and you face an OB you end up having to fold and not realizing your equity, so I do like the 1/4 block. On wizard another strange thing is if you play a XC XC line with a fd there are some rivers donking for 11% pot with 6 high lol. I don't understand it, but its in there. Just hoping villain folds some higher missed flush draw king high or something?

It's all based on how many combos get put into the bigger range. If most strong hands go for geometric, then the small-bet needs to be value-raised and correspondlingly bluff-raised more often. This gets awfully assumption heavy very quickly and can be difficult to determine in game.

The donking lines are always complicated and have to do with the how poorly 65s showdown here and how little it interferes with the missed draws.

So the actually range is heavily dependent on opponent's 4-betting range. Given the speed, I'd be surprised to see a range as complex as GTO wizards that was 4-bet. It's more likely that Villain was using an approximation which had some subtle flaws. This tends to spin the value of some of the jams, particularly moving AXs -EV. If AXs moves -EV, I think something like KK which is going to have great EV against an underfold strategy, is going to be close to a pure jam.

In the actual hand, I think I prefer jam with my hand against his particular hand, because he actually only loses -6bbs or so against KK when I call, where jamming KK vs A6s loses -19.5bbs.

I'm okay with calling KK here against players with the sort of balance that GTO wizard displays, but I'm skeptical that this player is that balanced. Flatting KK is quite beneficial against things like two suited undercards or small offsuit broadways, which if I remember correctly is part of the GTO wizard range.

Hi Tyler Forrester here is SB 4bet range for the example I gave above. Definitely a lot of off suit broadways being thrown in there, a mix of suited broadways and a healthy portion of A7s-A2s as well. This is for the 500NL 2.5x general sim (2.5x each position then 3x sb; not solved for post flop yet). I'm clearly not 4 betting enough. I do a lot of the AJo KQo some KJo and some wheel aces, but usually not the suited hands, maybe some K7s-K2s. I'm getting closer! but still pretty far off. Wizard has 78 combos here, which shouldn't be too hard to get to with even a linear range. JJ+ AJo+ KQo+ AKs is 76 combos already. Would I really need to mix in other stuff?

The short answer is yes -- if you want to make the defense ragnes for GTO maximum exploit. Without 98s or 55, KK value postflop is going to go down and GTO wizard would use a different 4-bet range. The dominated hands particularly that fold to jam are critical to flatting preflop. If you consistently 4-bet A-Big off and Ax suited and have less 55, 98s then KK wants to jam for protection more, because those Axo and Ax suited have 30% equity against it. AA doesn't have this problem because A-Big has 7-8% equity and the suited Axs only has 15% or so.

I think the main idea is that flush draw+top pair draw to T and 5 is very close to being profitable BT vs Blinds. It's very close preflop, like J4s. I don't think playing not playing is going to make a huge difference in winrate. My data seems indicate that something like this is worth at best around $1 as an open here.