Are River Raises Underbluffed? (3- And 4-Bet Pot Edition)
Posted by thejericho2
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Way more bluffs than I thought there was going to be. The only thing I would add to this video is some PIO solves where you see if the raises and calls are PIO approved. Also hide results as we know the hands in red are never bluffs lol.
Jesus, yeah I definitely should do a better job of hiding results.
PIO solutions would be a good addition, I agree!
Thanks for the constructive feedback:)
thejericho2 @27 min. you said that you liked seeing your opponent have a bluff in that spot w/ KQ. I don't think I would've ever found that bluff. What better hands will he get you to fold? The only combo I can think of is AA. From the KQ perspective what are we targeting that makes the bluff better than calling?
Jx, TT and AA mainly. If I would block river w AT, it would be a tough b/c because I don't block any FH. But I think I would of jammed those combos in-game.
It still is a pretty hard call w T9 or KT fwiw.
Maybe KQ can mix all 3 options. However, I doubt that it would win much at showdown when calling.
37:30
is there any reason to betting polarized here?
I think we still can bet some of AJ OTT for protection cuz block some QJs and AQ
and we have lot of Qx OTT right?(bet for bluff OTF)
obv KK AA QQ JJ even some 3x like A3s K3s
Is betting merged range for small sizing doesn't make sense?
It's just that the positions + the board itself make it so that betting polarized is a bit better here imo.
It's BB 3bet vs CO Open and there are two high cards ott. We're not supposed to bet small here since the top of our range (Qx+) rly wants to go big. Also, betting TT-99 or a weak Jx ott makes you quite vulnerable when you check ott.
Great review! 8:15 I think his line seems inbalanced unless you know him to be a strong reg. He bets many kx and flush draws on the turn as well as sets. I think if he had a diamond his bluff may be better.
Honestly, you might be right, it might be imbalanced. I would prefer a jam in his shoes fwiw.
I like watching these videos, and usually they dispell the myth that certain spots that we think are way under-bluffed are in fact not underbluffed (at least at the stakes you play). I'm assuming at lower stakes than 500nl that these spots are probably usually under-bluffed still?
Probably, I'm not so sure given I haven't played those lower stakes.
But as a rule of thumb, river raises at lower stakes are usually nuts heavy.
2.50 - QJ2cc with JJ
You cbet here for 15% pot. Aren't these two-tone boards higher EV for OOP if they bet bigger - somewhere between 50% and 75%?
You can have different bet sizes here, it's not a board where there is only one good answer like 972r for example.
Ah ok, so the EV of different sizes are similar and you prefer the 15. Is that because it simplifies your strategy, or because people respond poorly to the smaller size, or both?
Exactly! It's because it simplifies the strat (can just bet range), and population doesn't defend optimally vs that bet size.
Luke talks about this in one of his videos as well, where he can go 20% with entire range, but with 33% he has to find some checks. This was HU vs buttonclicker.
Good video.
25:00: Is block river tailored specifically for KQ? Would you bluffs similarly be tailored around KQ i.e. QJ no heart (assuming you put QJ with a heart in shoving range)
Thanks :)
Yeah, your combo will determine whether it goes in the jamming range or in the block range. For example, QJcc would be an easy block here and QJ w one heart would always shove.
Hey jericho! thanks for the nice video!
I've done some analysis.
B-R-C -X through- block- Shove (from IP) = Value (slightly thin) KQo
(BBvBTN 3BP PFA OOP) QJ2Q9
B-X-B, Raise vs block , = Bluff (pure) 55
(BBvCO 3BP PFA OOP) K588K two pair board
B-check through -X/shove vs half = Value (Nuts) AA
(COvBTN 4BP IP as caller ) AT493
check through - DCB 1psb - B75%- X/shove= Value (Topish) KQo
(BvB 3BP PFA IP ) J949T
B-B-B- shove vs block = Value (second nuts) 78s
(BTNvSB 3BP PFA OOP ) AT69J
B-B-B- shove vs block = Bluff ( pure) 66
(BTNvBB 3BP PFA OOP ) J55J9 two pair board (It looks like he is trying rep Jx to folding out 88 99 TT QQ KK AA)
B-B-B- Shove vs block= Value (relatively nuts) K8s
(BTNvSB 3BP PFA OOP ) J84T3 flush board
B-B-B- shove vs half= Value (Nuts) AKo
(HJvSB 3BP PFA OOP) QT5J2r
B-X-B , shove vs block =Bluff (two pair blocker) 53s
(BTNvSB 3BP PFA OOP ) J26A5 river flush complete board
X/C-X through-block , Raise vs block = bluff (pure) 22 (BTNvSB 3BP PFA OOP ) T74KQ 4flush river board
X through - " -block , Raise vs block =Value (TPTK) AKo (HJvSB 3BP PFA OOP ) 457JAr
B-X-B , Shove vs half = Value ( TPTK) AQs
(COvSB 3BP PFA OOP ) J736Qr
B-B-B , Shove vs block = Value (nut flush) A5s
(BTNvBB 3BP PFA OOP) K6234
X/C-X through -block , shove vs block = Bluff (boat blocker) KQo (COvSB 4BP OOP as caller ) KJ9QJ very wet board
( that IP can rep stronger hands than str8 )
B-B-B, shove vs block = Bluff ( boat blocker) (sick) T7s
(COvSB 3BP PFA OOP ) KT66J (rep stronger hands than str8)
B-X-B , shove vs half =Bluff (str8 blocker) 55
(BvB 3BP PFA IP ) J236Q (rep stronger hands than TP)
X through - " - B , Raise vs block = Value ( set) JJ
(BTNvBB 3BP PFA OOP) AQ74J
B-X-B , shove vs half = Value ( two pair) AKo
(COvSB 3BP PFA OOP ) K96QA
B-X-B , shove vs half = Value ( TPTK) AQo
(COvBB 3BP PFA OOP ) J33Q5
B-X-B , shove vs half = Bluff (str8 blocker) J9s
(BvB 3BP PFA IP) K9487
B-X-B , raise vs Block = =Value (MPTK) AQo
(BTNvSB 3BP PFA OOP ) KQ527
Xthrough-DCB-B , X/R vs half= Bluff (str8 , flush blocker) JTo
(BvB 3BP PFA IP ) AJQA2
B/C-X through - half/C = Value (boats) 55
(BvB 3BP PFA IP ) KK5QA
B-X-B , raise vs block = Bluff (pure) A9s
(BTNvSB 3BP PFA OOP ) 7725Q
Bluff: 10
Value:14
41.67% bluffs.
people 0% trying to folding out strong range OTR. when we show some strength with sizings like 75%, there's 0 bluff By villains in these samples.
The spot where people bluff the most is when we are on OOP and take B-X-B line. It looks like the pool hardly trying to folding out weak ranges.
When the board shows which hand is NUT too clearly, and we block on that board with B-X-B line , I can see the opponent often bluffs.
but there's 0 bluff when we bet half on B-X-B line 3BP OOP.
The only spot population bluffs vs half on B-X-B line is BvB 3BP.
When we take the B-B-B line, the only case where the opponent BLUFF is when we block the river.
Even those two bluff spots were once the opponent was a weak player, and the other time you were the one who said the opponent was aggro.
5.After two players go check through by turn, the bluff sample is 0 in the spot where we block the river and the opponent raise against our block. I think this spot is a very value heavy line by villains because there are so few hands that they can represent.\
It would be thanks your feedback!
Wow, great detailed analysis here!
I liked how you summarized your findings. I do agree w your overall conclusions. People LOVE to bluff once you showed weakness (B-X-B line, or block river).
Otherwise, it usually will be mostly only value from my experience.
That's why it is quite important to protect your range in that spot whenever you bxb. We saw the same thing in SRP. It will usually be the most bluffed line.
I also agree that the bigger our sizing otr will be, the less bluffs we will see. Again, whenever you show weakness, you have to understand that you will often induce bluffs.
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