River Raises as a Bluff
Posted by thejericho2
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Great video!
Thanks, appreciated :)
thejericho2,
On the first hand, seeing that villain really only calls with a ten and AK, do you think hero is bluffing QJ because it blocks QT and JT? Maybe same logic for 99 and 88 as well blocking T8 and T9 respectively?
Thanks.
That's probably it most likely. Looking to block villain's Tx. V unique spot, quite interesting.
thejericho2,
You showed on the AhQd bluff that it was better to have Qd than Ad, curious if you think this is due to unblocking the small amount of Ad bet folds? Does hero block more flushes with Qd? Interested what your thoughts are on that one.
Thanks.
Yeah that's why having the Ad is probably not as a good as having the Qd; we end up blocking some b/f.
We definitely do block more flushes w Qd than w Ad. AQo and KQo are super low fqcy 3bets BB vs CO. AKo is full frequency so there you go. This here is probably the reasoning behind it.
thejericho2,
Really enjoyed the analysis in this video and look forward to the next part.
Thanks
Thanks for the kind words :)
8:05 I think having 2 raise sizes on the river is nice for 3x and all in. Other wise you stop your opponents from having 3bet bluffs on the river if you only 2b jam. Saulo shows the importance of having a block on the river so you can 3b jam in this video. In your video you can see some sets, 98s, and AK are raising the river for thin value or a bluff. I'm not sure why solver seems to prefer 8x over 9x combos for bluffing.
12:15 you mention "8s is insane." I have a hard time calling a turn barrel with 88-22 here. It makes sense on the to bluff with small pairs that unblock all 2 pair and set combos that fold, but it's hard to get to the river with a small pair.
8:05 - wow just noticed that PIO was raising AK and sets small otr for value lol. I didn't even see it or consider it tbh. I thought it would be a spot where its Tx or nothing. I would need to take a deeper look at the spot to incorporate the smaller raise size.
12:15 - Yeah... Idk that I get there w the smaller pairs tbh. Might be a leak. Playing like PIO is hard. Like you said, bluffing the river w the underpairs ain't too hard; it's getting to the river in the first place.
26:22
I think this is key to exploiting players. Doesn't matter if you have negative blockers when bluffing some times, just matters what fears they have and how they perceive you.
Yeah, it felt right in game vs that player profile.
28:50 on this J74r-6cc board why do you never want to check 87s and always check 98s? Where 87s has 9 outs against an over pair and 98s has 8 outs. Screen shot The 87s can just bet + call off where 98s has to bet + fold?
Would be nice to have a simple guideline to refer to when deciding to bluff raise the river. On the last hand we can see 98s is blocking folds from 99/88 and unblocking calls from AJs QQ QJs etc. We need to block their strongest value and unblock the middling hands that are thin value bets. Not easy to do in real time and knowing the thresholds of opponents ranges for calling and folding. We look at 98d and think we block some 97s 87s hands but it's not relevant to opponents range, only our perceived range. Finding AQo bluffs in a C-X-R line is pretty nice blocking their turn traps and still having the perceived range of having trips.
28:50 - You answered your own question: 87s bets for protection and can b/c off. 98s has to b/f which sucks. The thing that you are missing is that you won't always gii vs overpairs. You will sometimes gii vs KQcc or ATcc and 87s is ahead of those. W 98s, your fucked...
Yes, that 98hh bluff would be terrible vs regs. More so of a read play here vs the rec. And yes, the 7x blockers are pretty much irrelevant in that hand.
Great node to cover.
7:11 the aq raise is interesting. Seems like a raise to fold out kx. Is it a hand that gets river jammed as a bluff?
9:18 you talk about him needing to bluff diamonds. If the diamond had been front door rather than back door does that lower the frequency that he bluffs diamonds?
Thanks!
Thanks
7:11 - I don't think so. We should have much weaker to jam otr and there is a slight chance that we do win at SD.
9:18 - Absolutely.
Nice video, liked the format of multiple hands with a common theme
Thanks, much appreciated :)
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