great video. really cool, one of the best on RIO
-In the first hand (AcJd), we are balanced assuming he has a bluff catcher with no blockers. How should we adjust our frequencies given he can sometimes have a bluff catcher with a blocker and sometimes have flush (which is def not a bluff catcher)? Throughout you seem to balance assuming they have all bluff catchers but since this is not always the case, dont you have to bluff slightly less since some of his hands have a snap call ?
-In the 2nd hand (43o), isn't J4 and J3 another possible bluffing hand?
-In the 3rd hand (T9hh), shouldn't we discount our A7 combos further given its likely his bluff catcher will contain an ace (and therefore we shud take into account this when trying to be balanced versus this frequent bluff catching hand)? ... and do you ever value jam AsXs? it blocks some of his full houses and he definitely has various lower flushes in his range. Its interesting also about his best bluff catchers because if your only value jamming full houses then he shud fold his flush combos and call with hands like 7x, Ax (tho he probably doesn't have a ton of 7x in range that bets flop and doesn't have a ton of Ax that raises turn and bets river)
-In the fourth hand (A4o), wouldn't he be more interested in bluffing river with QT JT combos rather then 7xhh combos? The 7xhh combos block both your straights and your weaker pair+SD hands, so the 7 seems like a fairly neutral blocker. But having the heart is definitely not great because your 97hh 87hh J9hh T9hh T8hh J9hh J8hh Q8hh Q9hh K8hh K9hh KJhh KQhh are all def folding river and his K7hh Q7hh j7hh t7hh all block some of those combos. Whereas, JT and QT with no heart dont block any folding hands and block your strongest Ax (AT-AQ).
And in that hand, why are we assuming our opponent won't bluff enough on the river and/or will overcall our river shoves such that we can't bluff catch or bluff shove? I dont get why you dont just give him a balanced river range and a appropriate bet/calling range and then see what hands show the best EV under each line (whether call, fold, or shove).
-Hmm didn't really consider any of this tbh, but that seems indeed true, with hands with Tc as in this hand, he would block 1/3 of our valuerange and has a snapcall with those, which indeed means that we should bluf slightly less because the calculations don't include blockers.
-Yes as mentioned, they sure are, but they are also really decent blufcatcher on this runout, so apart from the obvious 34, picking the other 2 combo's is a lot tougher.
-We could surely think about raising AsXs, but I think only c/r'ing FH+ is a fineplay here. His best blufcatchers would probably be some AsXx/A9/AT/7x+
-A4o Yea I thought about this aswell, but the couple of 7x of heart combo's are not a major deal, the most important thing is indeed the JTo/QTo combo's, if you include all of those on the river he ends up bluffing way too often and therefore we can indeed blufcatch every Ax, and also bluf 89.
To your last comment, I def intended to give him a balanced range, thats actually why I not included all of the JT/QT combo's.
thanks for reply! back to the first hand, how do we factor in the idea that he not only has bluff catchers with good blockers, but some flushes himself, that are not even bluff catchers. This balance assumes he has entirely bluff catchers
always learn a lot from your vids. I just have a question: almost check-raise river bluff are two pairs either on flop or on turn. so can I think all the two pair hands need to turn into bluff if vallin bets on river?
18:00 ...109s
You say given our range optimal sizing is 655 and that's what you should have done...
Shouldn't his likeliness to call given you're sizing also be considered at least a bit...are there any hands he folds to a jam but calls to 655? (ex. 57...if he cbets that)
Thanks!
You mean he is going to undercall when I jam and overcall when I size smaller?
That seems totally possible but I think impossible for me to figure that out, so for these calculations we have to deny that possibility.
They might be, but we c/c flop and lead/c the turn, so it's very debateable that we don't c/r these hands, and call his turn raise with J or 8 high, 86ss will probably have enough eq with some implied odds to call but I decided to leave them out anyway.
@18:00 when you use the term "optimal sizing" would that be defined as the sizing at which he is indifferent to calling or folding? If so, then I understand and disregard the following....but
I can't wrap my head around how you could calculate an actual optimal or "best risk/reward" sizing without making any assumptions about his calling frequency vs the different sizings. The following is just theory, but I'm making up a ridiculous scenario just to illustrate my question about why are we calling it "optimal" sizing? Assuming you are bluffing, If you raise to any size less than all in and he has any non-zero calling frequency, then your EV on the play is some number less than pot (to include possibly -EV). Now if you raise all in and he folds 100% of the time then your EV is the whole pot, which, in my opinion would make that the optimal bet size. We had to know information about his calling frequency facing different sizings to conclude that shove is best. Again, I'm not advocating that we go all in, I'm just questioning the use of the term optimal.
Yes I indeed mean the sizing at which he is indifferent to calling or folding, and as I said before in one of the comments, I would have no idea how to make assumptions on calling frequencies versus different sizings, so I didn't make any in these hands.
Generally very spewy riverbluffs imo. I think that in some of these hands you are using to big of a sizing since I percieve opp's betcalling range to be fairly inelastic vs your raisesize (due to the actual boards making his range more polarized) Esp true in the hand vs AA but you already mentioned that :)
First hand (AJo) was the worst imo, I'd say like 95% of regs are delaycbetting here when they pick up backdoor nfd (and J9 for the double gutter) so you are gonna be strong very very irregularly.
but when he has Ace high or pair+FD, he definitely checks so that he can have some flushes in his checking line as well as it just makes sense logically to not bet because he's got SD value but doesn't want to bet and just make hands with very little equity fold and be up against a range that he now doesn't really beat anymore (by betting he loses some of his SD value when unimproved on river). He can bet AQcc and AJcc sometimes but its definitely not necessary
Can't really agree with you statement GuestSWE that the plays were very spewy riverblufs, especially the AcJx is not that weird since I will play my NF and pair+fd this way a 100% of the time.
The A4o/79 would be more debateable but I already mentioned that in the video ofc.
On the T9hh hand, which better hands will villain fold after he bets flop, raises your lead and makes a bit river bet? Really optimistic given our opponent is not going to fold? Just because we "have to be balanced" in order to be unexploitable, we actually become even more exploitable by trying to fold out the nuts, in fact our opponent doesnt need to intentionally exploit us because he can make no brainer calls.
Sup dude. Nice video. I was doing some experimenting with calculating bluff and value combinations using the formula provided on the video and came up with a small dilemma I was hoping you could help me with.
Calculating a spot where I'm overbetshoving 152.75 into 108 on the river on a spot where I have 33 valuecombos villains getting 152.75: (152.75x2+108=413.5) = 152.75 : 413.5 = 0:37
=> so to be balanced we should have 37% bluffs
37% bluffs 63% value
33 = 63 X = 37
33 * 37 / 63 = x
X=19,4
We should have 19,4 combos of bluffs here.
But then when I change the betsize on the river to betting 80 into 108 instead, for the formula I get: villains getting 80: 268 = 30%
To be balanced 30% bluffs
30% bluffs 70% value
33 = 70 X = 30
33*30 / 70 = X
X=14,14
Therefore we could have 14 bluffcombinations with a bet of 80 into 108.
I don't understand why with a smaller bet our bluffcombinations decrease, could you explain what's the reasoning behind this / any errors in my thinking/calculations please?
This is the full hand history in case:
Hand History for Game 14551575424
$1/$2 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, May 05, 18:12:39 ICT 2015
Table Longueuil (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 2/2
Seat 2: HERO ( $206.75 USD )
Seat 1: Player1 ( $285.32 USD )
HERO posts small blind [$1 USD].
Player1 posts big blind [$2 USD]. * Dealing down cards *
Dealt to HERO [ Kd 6d ]
HERO raises [$3 USD]
Player1 raises [$12 USD]
HERO calls [$10 USD] * Dealing Flop * [ 4s, 3h, 8d ]
Player1 bets [$16 USD]
HERO calls [$16 USD] * Dealing Turn * [ Jc ]
Player1 checks
HERO bets [$24 USD]
Player1 calls [$24 USD] * Dealing River * [ 2h ]
Player1 checks
HERO is all-In [$152.75 USD]
Player1 will be using their time bank for this hand.
Player1 calls [$152.75 USD]
Player1 shows [ 7s, 7d ]a pair of Sevens.
HERO doesn't show [ Kd, 6d ]high card King.
Player1 wins $412.50 USD from the main pot with a pair of Sevens.
It's actually quite obvious, because when we bet smaller we give a better price for villain to call so we should/must get called more often.
So indeed a smaller betsizing means less bluffs.
Hehe, ok, guess I was maybe a little bit harsh there. If you do play the nfd + and combos like that I guess it's ok. However since that is percieved as non-standard lines (or am I way off? lol) that might really lower your bluffing successrates vs guys like me :)
Loved the video, learned a lot. When I see my 43 counterfeited on the river, I just fold and complain about how I run, instead of recognizing a good bluf combo...
If you get into one of these river situations, do other factors, besides the actual hand and if they include blockers or not, affect your decision to check raise bluf? In understand that you use an exploitive strategy vs recs, but what about these high level villains in this vid?
Tough question to give a real specific answer, but as you can see the villain in the 34 hand shows up with A8, so even these high level villains have strategies that differ quite alot so when bluffing here with 34, I should also count in the fact how many 8x villain can have here as some valuebet alot thinner on flop/turns than others.
1st hand - on the river i'd imagine villain's value betting range probably isn't going to be nut flush heavy as I feel quite some ppl will bet the NFD on the turn. With that said, isn't the best possible bluff raise candidate to be a blocker to his potential river value combos (which the Ac doesn't block)
T9 hand - Do you have a turn lead bet/3bet range? I feel like given we are leading a card that favors our range (7), a bet/3bet strategy could probably be introduced, if that is the case, the river range would change drastically
-Yes thats indeed a valid argument, but in this case that would be a hand like QJ/J9, which I never 3bet or always bet flop so thats pretty impossible in this spot, therefore I still think that the best bluff would be AcJx AcQx
-I dont think this is a spot where I have a bet/3b range since he has more nutted combo's than me, and I don't think there is a lot of value in 3betting a strong 7, on a board like 7T6 7, this would indeed be a whole lot different.
I also enjoyed this video. These are my favorite type of videos.
You didn't consider the removal effects and I think that these play a huge role in these hands. For instance, in the 4th hand you are trying to make him fold an ace. But then you have half of your Ax boats and this is probably why you cannot check raise bluff.
This is even clearer in the last hand. You assume that both villains have either a boat or the nut flush. But then one of them will always have a boat!
In this hand you also give them 100% of their set combos on the river. Wouldn't you expect them to raise on the flop or the turn pretty often?
In general, you're trying to make villains fold big hands. Wouldn't you expect villains to underfold? (For instance, I wouldn't expect most regs to fold AK against me in the 4th hand or the NF in the last one.) Therefore, I don't think being balanced here is very important.
Thank you, you make some very valid arguments, which I can't really argue with.
About the last hand, yes there are a ton of assumption to make if you want to calculate if the bluff is correct or not, indeed I would expect them to sometimes c/r a set here, especially the sb. In this hand I am for sure trying to fold really big hands, but when sb flats it became such a unique (goodish) blufspot.
-I don't know what stakes you play, but for sure it could be true for 200/400nl where they might underfold, that the bluf is with Ax was terrible there while more effective at higher stakes/better villains.
Hey super Teunuss, i got a question and i apologize in advance for my ignorance or misunderstanding about the subject, but first hand , i see that you would be value betting 6 combos in the river, doesn`t that means that you should be bluffing 2 combos only ? since GTO if i didnt misunderstand it suppose to be 2/3 value combos vs 1/3 bluff ratio? i see that you made the calculations base on your bet sizing.. sorry this confuse me a bit.. thank you in advance mate, and please keep making this awesome videos!
The 6 valuecombo's are 2/3 of our total combo's so you should not do 2/3 of 6=2
But you should calculate how much the other 1/3 is by:
6 * 0.33 / 0.667 = 3
Super dry flops like K72r or T64r are bad to x/raise on because our value range (sets) doesnt need protection and your bluffing range will have no nut equity. We will also get less credit and overbluff too often.
i think u made a mistake in the last hand of 79 calculating how often ur villains gonna fold.
ur assumption is that villains will mainly fold their nut flushes. u say that button will fold around 70% of time and that SB will fold around 50% of time. the problem is that the villains both block eachothers folding ranges. so if BTN folds then he most likely blocks SB folding range and SB will not fold 50% of the time as u expected
Oh yes, I saw your quesion, I was really busy last couple of weeks, but you make a really good point indeed. There were several flaws pointed out in the video, and specially the fact that I didn't really take blocker effects in account in my opponent hands.
As for the 79 hand, the %% of time that they will fold will decrease significantly when we consider this, but to be 100% honest, I don't really know how to calculate it, as I am not that close to being a math genius ;)
But as I concluded the spot was pretty close itself, it's very likely to be a -ev bluff considering your argument!
Really great video! As someone who plays pretty much exclusively PLO and hasn't played almost any NL cash in years I'm struggling a bit to know what the "standard play" would be in some spots, but I'm really surprised to see the lack of protection raises in NL these days. Of course, I get that it's much more important concept in PLO, and you don't want to weaken your check-call range too much by taking the best combo's out of it and want to add deception value, but still some protection is needed. So I'd like to ask about the following spots in the video:
Hand 2: 4d3s
I get that you don't want to have a check-raising range on this flop, but is this really the case for the turn also? More protection is needed as the board turns draw-heavy, and also there is more valuecombo's you can have now: J8, 88. Maybe 38 and 48 would be overplaying as a raise. It has to become pretty tempting as the button to barrel tons of turns if there is zero chance of a check-raise. You never deny him of any equity. Of course, having a check-raise range on the turn will weaken the check-call range, but is it generally accepted that it's better to have no raises at all here? And I'm talking more of set of 3's and 4's than 34, but since you had all the 33 and 44 combos as a possible value combo's for a river raise with this line, it's implying that you will never raise the turn?
Hand 5: 9c7c
Is it standard that button doesn't have a raising range on the flop? I'd get that HU, but 3-way that seems a bit strange. Or do you think his plan was to raise the turn if it was a total blanc? I guess that would only be offsuit 3 and 4. Offsuit Q, K and A might be the other options for a raise as they complete no draws, besides pocket QQ, KK and AA which are in your range obviously to beat his set of 7's. But still his hand should want a lot of protection by raising, especially 3-way on the turn when at least SB is so often drawing.
Loading 53 Comments...
nice video
great video. really cool, one of the best on RIO
-In the first hand (AcJd), we are balanced assuming he has a bluff catcher with no blockers. How should we adjust our frequencies given he can sometimes have a bluff catcher with a blocker and sometimes have flush (which is def not a bluff catcher)? Throughout you seem to balance assuming they have all bluff catchers but since this is not always the case, dont you have to bluff slightly less since some of his hands have a snap call ?
-In the 2nd hand (43o), isn't J4 and J3 another possible bluffing hand?
-In the 3rd hand (T9hh), shouldn't we discount our A7 combos further given its likely his bluff catcher will contain an ace (and therefore we shud take into account this when trying to be balanced versus this frequent bluff catching hand)? ... and do you ever value jam AsXs? it blocks some of his full houses and he definitely has various lower flushes in his range. Its interesting also about his best bluff catchers because if your only value jamming full houses then he shud fold his flush combos and call with hands like 7x, Ax (tho he probably doesn't have a ton of 7x in range that bets flop and doesn't have a ton of Ax that raises turn and bets river)
-In the fourth hand (A4o), wouldn't he be more interested in bluffing river with QT JT combos rather then 7xhh combos? The 7xhh combos block both your straights and your weaker pair+SD hands, so the 7 seems like a fairly neutral blocker. But having the heart is definitely not great because your 97hh 87hh J9hh T9hh T8hh J9hh J8hh Q8hh Q9hh K8hh K9hh KJhh KQhh are all def folding river and his K7hh Q7hh j7hh t7hh all block some of those combos. Whereas, JT and QT with no heart dont block any folding hands and block your strongest Ax (AT-AQ).
And in that hand, why are we assuming our opponent won't bluff enough on the river and/or will overcall our river shoves such that we can't bluff catch or bluff shove? I dont get why you dont just give him a balanced river range and a appropriate bet/calling range and then see what hands show the best EV under each line (whether call, fold, or shove).
-Hmm didn't really consider any of this tbh, but that seems indeed true, with hands with Tc as in this hand, he would block 1/3 of our valuerange and has a snapcall with those, which indeed means that we should bluf slightly less because the calculations don't include blockers.
-Yes as mentioned, they sure are, but they are also really decent blufcatcher on this runout, so apart from the obvious 34, picking the other 2 combo's is a lot tougher.
-We could surely think about raising AsXs, but I think only c/r'ing FH+ is a fineplay here. His best blufcatchers would probably be some AsXx/A9/AT/7x+
-A4o Yea I thought about this aswell, but the couple of 7x of heart combo's are not a major deal, the most important thing is indeed the JTo/QTo combo's, if you include all of those on the river he ends up bluffing way too often and therefore we can indeed blufcatch every Ax, and also bluf 89.
To your last comment, I def intended to give him a balanced range, thats actually why I not included all of the JT/QT combo's.
thanks for reply! back to the first hand, how do we factor in the idea that he not only has bluff catchers with good blockers, but some flushes himself, that are not even bluff catchers. This balance assumes he has entirely bluff catchers
thanks tuenuss
nice video
could you share the CREV tree if possible?
Yes I'll post it in here soon!
always learn a lot from your vids. I just have a question: almost check-raise river bluff are two pairs either on flop or on turn. so can I think all the two pair hands need to turn into bluff if vallin bets on river?
Thanks!
Ugm not sure what you mean: but in general on a paired board with 2p (2 blockers) we have a decent blufcandidate in most cases yes.
Loved the video!
18:00 ...109s
You say given our range optimal sizing is 655 and that's what you should have done...
Shouldn't his likeliness to call given you're sizing also be considered at least a bit...are there any hands he folds to a jam but calls to 655? (ex. 57...if he cbets that)
Thanks!
You mean he is going to undercall when I jam and overcall when I size smaller?
That seems totally possible but I think impossible for me to figure that out, so for these calculations we have to deny that possibility.
Live play nl1K if possible :)!
In the T9s hand don't you need to include 68ss and possible J8ss in your value range?
They might be, but we c/c flop and lead/c the turn, so it's very debateable that we don't c/r these hands, and call his turn raise with J or 8 high, 86ss will probably have enough eq with some implied odds to call but I decided to leave them out anyway.
@18:00 when you use the term "optimal sizing" would that be defined as the sizing at which he is indifferent to calling or folding? If so, then I understand and disregard the following....but
I can't wrap my head around how you could calculate an actual optimal or "best risk/reward" sizing without making any assumptions about his calling frequency vs the different sizings. The following is just theory, but I'm making up a ridiculous scenario just to illustrate my question about why are we calling it "optimal" sizing? Assuming you are bluffing, If you raise to any size less than all in and he has any non-zero calling frequency, then your EV on the play is some number less than pot (to include possibly -EV). Now if you raise all in and he folds 100% of the time then your EV is the whole pot, which, in my opinion would make that the optimal bet size. We had to know information about his calling frequency facing different sizings to conclude that shove is best. Again, I'm not advocating that we go all in, I'm just questioning the use of the term optimal.
Yes I indeed mean the sizing at which he is indifferent to calling or folding, and as I said before in one of the comments, I would have no idea how to make assumptions on calling frequencies versus different sizings, so I didn't make any in these hands.
His name is coolerman97, that's why you got a 97X flop with 97 vs his 77, of course
Great video! More like this please
Generally very spewy riverbluffs imo. I think that in some of these hands you are using to big of a sizing since I percieve opp's betcalling range to be fairly inelastic vs your raisesize (due to the actual boards making his range more polarized) Esp true in the hand vs AA but you already mentioned that :)
First hand (AJo) was the worst imo, I'd say like 95% of regs are delaycbetting here when they pick up backdoor nfd (and J9 for the double gutter) so you are gonna be strong very very irregularly.
but when he has Ace high or pair+FD, he definitely checks so that he can have some flushes in his checking line as well as it just makes sense logically to not bet because he's got SD value but doesn't want to bet and just make hands with very little equity fold and be up against a range that he now doesn't really beat anymore (by betting he loses some of his SD value when unimproved on river). He can bet AQcc and AJcc sometimes but its definitely not necessary
Can't really agree with you statement GuestSWE that the plays were very spewy riverblufs, especially the AcJx is not that weird since I will play my NF and pair+fd this way a 100% of the time.
The A4o/79 would be more debateable but I already mentioned that in the video ofc.
+1 for fivebetbluff ;)
On the T9hh hand, which better hands will villain fold after he bets flop, raises your lead and makes a bit river bet? Really optimistic given our opponent is not going to fold? Just because we "have to be balanced" in order to be unexploitable, we actually become even more exploitable by trying to fold out the nuts, in fact our opponent doesnt need to intentionally exploit us because he can make no brainer calls.
very nice video , very good job, thanks a lot
+1 for the CREV file
CREV FILE
Sup dude. Nice video. I was doing some experimenting with calculating bluff and value combinations using the formula provided on the video and came up with a small dilemma I was hoping you could help me with.
Calculating a spot where I'm overbetshoving 152.75 into 108 on the river on a spot where I have 33 valuecombos villains getting 152.75: (152.75x2+108=413.5) = 152.75 : 413.5 = 0:37
=> so to be balanced we should have 37% bluffs
37% bluffs 63% value
33 = 63 X = 37
33 * 37 / 63 = x
X=19,4
We should have 19,4 combos of bluffs here.
But then when I change the betsize on the river to betting 80 into 108 instead, for the formula I get: villains getting 80: 268 = 30%
To be balanced 30% bluffs
30% bluffs 70% value
33 = 70 X = 30
33*30 / 70 = X
X=14,14
Therefore we could have 14 bluffcombinations with a bet of 80 into 108.
I don't understand why with a smaller bet our bluffcombinations decrease, could you explain what's the reasoning behind this / any errors in my thinking/calculations please?
This is the full hand history in case:
Hand History for Game 14551575424
$1/$2 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, May 05, 18:12:39 ICT 2015
Table Longueuil (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 2/2
Seat 2: HERO ( $206.75 USD )
Seat 1: Player1 ( $285.32 USD )
HERO posts small blind [$1 USD].
Player1 posts big blind [$2 USD].
* Dealing down cards *
Dealt to HERO [ Kd 6d ]
HERO raises [$3 USD]
Player1 raises [$12 USD]
HERO calls [$10 USD]
* Dealing Flop * [ 4s, 3h, 8d ]
Player1 bets [$16 USD]
HERO calls [$16 USD]
* Dealing Turn * [ Jc ]
Player1 checks
HERO bets [$24 USD]
Player1 calls [$24 USD]
* Dealing River * [ 2h ]
Player1 checks
HERO is all-In [$152.75 USD]
Player1 will be using their time bank for this hand.
Player1 calls [$152.75 USD]
Player1 shows [ 7s, 7d ]a pair of Sevens.
HERO doesn't show [ Kd, 6d ]high card King.
Player1 wins $412.50 USD from the main pot with a pair of Sevens.
It's actually quite obvious, because when we bet smaller we give a better price for villain to call so we should/must get called more often.
So indeed a smaller betsizing means less bluffs.
Hehe, ok, guess I was maybe a little bit harsh there. If you do play the nfd + and combos like that I guess it's ok. However since that is percieved as non-standard lines (or am I way off? lol) that might really lower your bluffing successrates vs guys like me :)
Hey Teunuss,
Loved the video, learned a lot. When I see my 43 counterfeited on the river, I just fold and complain about how I run, instead of recognizing a good bluf combo...
If you get into one of these river situations, do other factors, besides the actual hand and if they include blockers or not, affect your decision to check raise bluf? In understand that you use an exploitive strategy vs recs, but what about these high level villains in this vid?
Tough question to give a real specific answer, but as you can see the villain in the 34 hand shows up with A8, so even these high level villains have strategies that differ quite alot so when bluffing here with 34, I should also count in the fact how many 8x villain can have here as some valuebet alot thinner on flop/turns than others.
Why did you opt not to check/raise all in in H1?
that's risking 1023 to win 250
Yes why not consider check raise all in with Nut flushes + blockers
Hi Tenuss,
very nice video!
I would like to see more videos about the same topic, but maybe you include some more Flop & Turn spots for the next time?
Hi teunuss, enjoyed the video
1st hand - on the river i'd imagine villain's value betting range probably isn't going to be nut flush heavy as I feel quite some ppl will bet the NFD on the turn. With that said, isn't the best possible bluff raise candidate to be a blocker to his potential river value combos (which the Ac doesn't block)
T9 hand - Do you have a turn lead bet/3bet range? I feel like given we are leading a card that favors our range (7), a bet/3bet strategy could probably be introduced, if that is the case, the river range would change drastically
-Yes thats indeed a valid argument, but in this case that would be a hand like QJ/J9, which I never 3bet or always bet flop so thats pretty impossible in this spot, therefore I still think that the best bluff would be AcJx AcQx
-I dont think this is a spot where I have a bet/3b range since he has more nutted combo's than me, and I don't think there is a lot of value in 3betting a strong 7, on a board like 7T6 7, this would indeed be a whole lot different.
I also enjoyed this video. These are my favorite type of videos.
You didn't consider the removal effects and I think that these play a huge role in these hands. For instance, in the 4th hand you are trying to make him fold an ace. But then you have half of your Ax boats and this is probably why you cannot check raise bluff.
This is even clearer in the last hand. You assume that both villains have either a boat or the nut flush. But then one of them will always have a boat!
In this hand you also give them 100% of their set combos on the river. Wouldn't you expect them to raise on the flop or the turn pretty often?
In general, you're trying to make villains fold big hands. Wouldn't you expect villains to underfold? (For instance, I wouldn't expect most regs to fold AK against me in the 4th hand or the NF in the last one.) Therefore, I don't think being balanced here is very important.
Thank you, you make some very valid arguments, which I can't really argue with.
About the last hand, yes there are a ton of assumption to make if you want to calculate if the bluff is correct or not, indeed I would expect them to sometimes c/r a set here, especially the sb. In this hand I am for sure trying to fold really big hands, but when sb flats it became such a unique (goodish) blufspot.
-I don't know what stakes you play, but for sure it could be true for 200/400nl where they might underfold, that the bluf is with Ax was terrible there while more effective at higher stakes/better villains.
Great video! One of my favourites actually :D. Loved the 79cc hand xD!
Moar
Cliff:
- bluff combos should be 1/2 of value combos
- check raise river bluff never work
Only versus world class players like humano :)
Hey super Teunuss, i got a question and i apologize in advance for my ignorance or misunderstanding about the subject, but first hand , i see that you would be value betting 6 combos in the river, doesn`t that means that you should be bluffing 2 combos only ? since GTO if i didnt misunderstand it suppose to be 2/3 value combos vs 1/3 bluff ratio? i see that you made the calculations base on your bet sizing.. sorry this confuse me a bit.. thank you in advance mate, and please keep making this awesome videos!
The 6 valuecombo's are 2/3 of our total combo's so you should not do 2/3 of 6=2
But you should calculate how much the other 1/3 is by:
6 * 0.33 / 0.667 = 3
ohh i see my mistake now, lol thanks
Very nice video!
Can you give me rule of thumb which kinda flops we shoud not have xr range and where we should?
Super dry flops like K72r or T64r are bad to x/raise on because our value range (sets) doesnt need protection and your bluffing range will have no nut equity. We will also get less credit and overbluff too often.
+1 mister disharmonist :)
hey man,
i think u made a mistake in the last hand of 79 calculating how often ur villains gonna fold.
ur assumption is that villains will mainly fold their nut flushes. u say that button will fold around 70% of time and that SB will fold around 50% of time. the problem is that the villains both block eachothers folding ranges. so if BTN folds then he most likely blocks SB folding range and SB will not fold 50% of the time as u expected
Oh yes, I saw your quesion, I was really busy last couple of weeks, but you make a really good point indeed. There were several flaws pointed out in the video, and specially the fact that I didn't really take blocker effects in account in my opponent hands.
As for the 79 hand, the %% of time that they will fold will decrease significantly when we consider this, but to be 100% honest, I don't really know how to calculate it, as I am not that close to being a math genius ;)
But as I concluded the spot was pretty close itself, it's very likely to be a -ev bluff considering your argument!
I love the humor, "They both folded, I showed my hand and they gave me an applause, NOPE, he called after 2 seconds" Gave me a good chuckle :D
Great video, very insightful. More of those please!
Really great video! As someone who plays pretty much exclusively PLO and hasn't played almost any NL cash in years I'm struggling a bit to know what the "standard play" would be in some spots, but I'm really surprised to see the lack of protection raises in NL these days. Of course, I get that it's much more important concept in PLO, and you don't want to weaken your check-call range too much by taking the best combo's out of it and want to add deception value, but still some protection is needed. So I'd like to ask about the following spots in the video:
Hand 2: 4d3s
I get that you don't want to have a check-raising range on this flop, but is this really the case for the turn also? More protection is needed as the board turns draw-heavy, and also there is more valuecombo's you can have now: J8, 88. Maybe 38 and 48 would be overplaying as a raise. It has to become pretty tempting as the button to barrel tons of turns if there is zero chance of a check-raise. You never deny him of any equity. Of course, having a check-raise range on the turn will weaken the check-call range, but is it generally accepted that it's better to have no raises at all here? And I'm talking more of set of 3's and 4's than 34, but since you had all the 33 and 44 combos as a possible value combo's for a river raise with this line, it's implying that you will never raise the turn?
Hand 5: 9c7c
Is it standard that button doesn't have a raising range on the flop? I'd get that HU, but 3-way that seems a bit strange. Or do you think his plan was to raise the turn if it was a total blanc? I guess that would only be offsuit 3 and 4. Offsuit Q, K and A might be the other options for a raise as they complete no draws, besides pocket QQ, KK and AA which are in your range obviously to beat his set of 7's. But still his hand should want a lot of protection by raising, especially 3-way on the turn when at least SB is so often drawing.
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