Folding is always cool, Pete. Although I don't know much about things being lit. 2nd hand is interesting. I agree that I definitely don't think most players are going to find the bluffs with QJo or Q9o, that said, I also don't think most people are going to 2x pot with QTo here, so that reduces value combos a lot. Still, I suspect bluff frequency is extremely low because there aren't many natural bluffs here or a human... maybe the high suited cards that had a backdoor flush draw? But he doesn't have very many since he would have 3bet most of them preflop. Altogether I would agree with you and overfold this spot (though I could still see myself sigh calling a T even if I think overfold is prudent... very tough one to lay down).
Also made a blog post about another hand I think fits in this category, if anyone wants to weigh in. https://www.runitonce.com/chatter/strike-three/#/comment-282264
Yeah I think humans do a really bad job of hitting the pure air bluffs that sometimes need to bet the previous street in order to balance the bluffing range and ensure that there are air combos on all runouts.
The second hand is probably an okay call with your hand. Don't know if villain builds an overbetting range on turn (which he probably has). If so, I think most of his 76 combos are gonna be overbets (except for 7h6h and mixing sizes with 76 one heart) and sets are probably mixing between the sizes (the ones with heart will probably be more frequent overbets), but I suspect the population to be overbetting more of these value than optimal given the wet nature of the board. I also think a lot of the overbet bluffs are obviously some hearts, but also hands like 68o, 78o, Qd6d, which I think a reg can find. Therefore, given his turn sizing, I do think he is mostly repping K10 and A10 specifically on the river, and blocking a 10 just blocks so much value. Bluffs are hard to find, but I won't be surprised if he took this line with Qs9s (unblocking the bdfd that fold on turn) and some 6x combos that decided to follow through on the river.
So I think this is a call if he has an overbetting range on turn, leaving his river value to be only K10 and A10, then having a 10 is just good enough to call.
I find that a surprisingly large number of regs still don't use over-betting at all. It is very hard to fold a hand like this in game, but the more I coach these stakes the more my students assure me that there is a lot of underbluffing going on in most spots.
I can make some real nice fold in live poker. But online, I made so many bad calls against socalled fish players always think they are bluffing. The time bank is too short. Great video, learned a lot. thanks Peter!! keep it up.
Thank you, glad you liked this one. Online we sometimes just have to play vs the population since reads are scarce in big pools. I like to ask my students: 'if you saw 1000 different regs play this spot at these stakes, how many of them would underbluff?'
Loved this video
even though I find arguments for calling AKo vs the 20bb 4b and especially w AKs
..sort of as a "well, you never know"
We obviously learn a lot from the T8s hand (that it is a high frequency cbet and that its a good c/r)
IMO what is also another great thing to do, but rarely talked about, is the timing....
So in the T8s hand, his timing for the overbet would be extremely interesting because I find that just as much as sizings,... especially unusual sizings in very rare spots done fairly quickly reduce the chance of bluff even more..
(this obvioulsy goes in both directions: THE most common bluff I think is the call call, blank river checked to SNAP Potsize bet from recreationals with busted flushdraws)
I liked the video as always but I have a few doubts overall.
First hand, AK.
Your claims are really solid, although I think they are biased, only a DB analysis will confirm your theory and it’s not even 100% accurate since the times you fold, we don’t know villain’s hand.
After a huge BE stretch I made a vow to not fold AK preflop vs anyone. I mean, I play NL25, people cannot have me beat everytime when I hold that hand so I’ve decide to push for aggression.
To my surprise, I’ve seen a lot of folds from players like OldNavy45, I’ve also seen a lot of calls vs my jam with AQ, AJ, TT and JJ. So I remembered clearly that one day I’ve realized I was giving too much credit to everyone.
I’ve just noticed you had 28 hands on Villain at the time, to me there are no reason to put in on a very very tight range as you did. In order to click the fold button I gotta need a lot of hands.
Anyway we can double check for sure and if you are interested I guess I can filter down the spot in PT4 in a large database and see which hands villains like that 4bet small and call a jam with
Great video, I folded KK pre againts an OMC nits 4bet shove, but that was live poker. Played a lot of hands with him and I was quite sure his range KK+ maybe just AA.
You mention in the 2nd hand about we block hands we want villain to have like AQ,KQ etc
But will this not be the case a lot of the time? Usually pots are created by both people having some part of the board, so by your theory you'll never be happy unless you have a set here?
Even AA KK blocks KQ and AQ.
So what situation are you actually confident in (minus low sets that dont block the ranges you talk about)
Your first hand against OMC only has 28 hands. Did you take the small sample size into account when making the decision to fold? Or do you operate off the presumption the V plays the displayed stats as that is the only data available, and it is equally possible that V plays tighter than the displayed stats as he/she would play looser than those stats?
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Folding is always cool, Pete. Although I don't know much about things being lit. 2nd hand is interesting. I agree that I definitely don't think most players are going to find the bluffs with QJo or Q9o, that said, I also don't think most people are going to 2x pot with QTo here, so that reduces value combos a lot. Still, I suspect bluff frequency is extremely low because there aren't many natural bluffs here or a human... maybe the high suited cards that had a backdoor flush draw? But he doesn't have very many since he would have 3bet most of them preflop. Altogether I would agree with you and overfold this spot (though I could still see myself sigh calling a T even if I think overfold is prudent... very tough one to lay down).
Also made a blog post about another hand I think fits in this category, if anyone wants to weigh in. https://www.runitonce.com/chatter/strike-three/#/comment-282264
Yeah I think humans do a really bad job of hitting the pure air bluffs that sometimes need to bet the previous street in order to balance the bluffing range and ensure that there are air combos on all runouts.
The second hand is probably an okay call with your hand. Don't know if villain builds an overbetting range on turn (which he probably has). If so, I think most of his 76 combos are gonna be overbets (except for 7h6h and mixing sizes with 76 one heart) and sets are probably mixing between the sizes (the ones with heart will probably be more frequent overbets), but I suspect the population to be overbetting more of these value than optimal given the wet nature of the board. I also think a lot of the overbet bluffs are obviously some hearts, but also hands like 68o, 78o, Qd6d, which I think a reg can find. Therefore, given his turn sizing, I do think he is mostly repping K10 and A10 specifically on the river, and blocking a 10 just blocks so much value. Bluffs are hard to find, but I won't be surprised if he took this line with Qs9s (unblocking the bdfd that fold on turn) and some 6x combos that decided to follow through on the river.
So I think this is a call if he has an overbetting range on turn, leaving his river value to be only K10 and A10, then having a 10 is just good enough to call.
I find that a surprisingly large number of regs still don't use over-betting at all. It is very hard to fold a hand like this in game, but the more I coach these stakes the more my students assure me that there is a lot of underbluffing going on in most spots.
Great video as always, i liked it a lot
Thanks!
Folding is the new sexy
If only it were as fun as over-betting :-)
Folding (our opponents especially ;-) ) is what prevents this game from being a pure luck game.
Mind blown you are right! ginzaboom
I can make some real nice fold in live poker. But online, I made so many bad calls against socalled fish players always think they are bluffing. The time bank is too short. Great video, learned a lot. thanks Peter!! keep it up.
Thank you, glad you liked this one. Online we sometimes just have to play vs the population since reads are scarce in big pools. I like to ask my students: 'if you saw 1000 different regs play this spot at these stakes, how many of them would underbluff?'
think fold Ak vs rec is good
thank you for vid!
The non-all in with the shoveable stack scares me!
Loved this video
even though I find arguments for calling AKo vs the 20bb 4b and especially w AKs
..sort of as a "well, you never know"
We obviously learn a lot from the T8s hand (that it is a high frequency cbet and that its a good c/r)
IMO what is also another great thing to do, but rarely talked about, is the timing....
So in the T8s hand, his timing for the overbet would be extremely interesting because I find that just as much as sizings,... especially unusual sizings in very rare spots done fairly quickly reduce the chance of bluff even more..
(this obvioulsy goes in both directions: THE most common bluff I think is the call call, blank river checked to SNAP Potsize bet from recreationals with busted flushdraws)
Pretty disappointing
I came for some origami instruction
I liked the video as always but I have a few doubts overall.
Your claims are really solid, although I think they are biased, only a DB analysis will confirm your theory and it’s not even 100% accurate since the times you fold, we don’t know villain’s hand.
After a huge BE stretch I made a vow to not fold AK preflop vs anyone. I mean, I play NL25, people cannot have me beat everytime when I hold that hand so I’ve decide to push for aggression.
To my surprise, I’ve seen a lot of folds from players like OldNavy45, I’ve also seen a lot of calls vs my jam with AQ, AJ, TT and JJ. So I remembered clearly that one day I’ve realized I was giving too much credit to everyone.
I’ve just noticed you had 28 hands on Villain at the time, to me there are no reason to put in on a very very tight range as you did. In order to click the fold button I gotta need a lot of hands.
Anyway we can double check for sure and if you are interested I guess I can filter down the spot in PT4 in a large database and see which hands villains like that 4bet small and call a jam with
Second hand - Radje stats says "3B 16/43" what do those numbers mean?
My first guess is 3B at 16% which is rather high, but I have no idea what the 43 is.
My second guess is out of 43 opportunities, he 3bet 16 times. Which would be like 37% which is extremely high.
Please clarify.
it is more a 3B 16 'spacing' 43
I guess it is the fold vs 3bet % but we await for confirmation
The T8s hand raising flop kinda reminds me of a hand Linus played against Steve O'Dwyer--he raises flop with 96 on 953
Great video, I folded KK pre againts an OMC nits 4bet shove, but that was live poker. Played a lot of hands with him and I was quite sure his range KK+ maybe just AA.
Enjoyed the video.
You mention in the 2nd hand about we block hands we want villain to have like AQ,KQ etc
But will this not be the case a lot of the time? Usually pots are created by both people having some part of the board, so by your theory you'll never be happy unless you have a set here?
Even AA KK blocks KQ and AQ.
So what situation are you actually confident in (minus low sets that dont block the ranges you talk about)
Your first hand against OMC only has 28 hands. Did you take the small sample size into account when making the decision to fold? Or do you operate off the presumption the V plays the displayed stats as that is the only data available, and it is equally possible that V plays tighter than the displayed stats as he/she would play looser than those stats?
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