Interesting video, would you recommend these moves at plo 10 and 25?
Couple of two pair hands multi way on wet boards where I wouldn't be looking to stack off., I know it's player dependent, but Its really open my eyes to how aggressive we need to be in certain spots.
Hi Wayne. I think in general yes because most lower stakes pools aren't going to be balancing their play well enough to hide their transparency. The wet boards actually tend to be ones that can be argued to be attacked more because players are often betting for value and protection always fearing bad run outs on these boards, so they very often aren't getting tricky or playing their value hands in their ranges slow. When players check back flops or suggest in any way with their lines that they are capped you can attack in the same manner like in some of the example hands in the video. As you said it becomes a little more player and player pool dependent once you develop reads and once you play in tougher pools players will likely be more balanced, but in general I think players in these specific pools should bet thinner for value and look for good spots to take aggressive lines to attack capped ranges. Now, of course keep in mind that if you are 3-5 ways post flop then you don't need to be attacking so often, but if you are HU or 3 ways a lot of the time, then probably look for more spots to attack whether you are bluffing or going for value. Thanks for the feedback and question! Feel free to ask more if need be.
At 14:55 you say and I quote "Top 2 is very often going to be the best hand here".
I find it utterly perplexing how Americans (I'm not talking about you here specifically) can complain not being able to play on Stars, etc. when you have a player pool (according to Nick Johnson) where top 2 is often good in that spot.
It's just bizarre - I know z50 regs that would give their left nut to be able to play in pools where 3 out of 4 other players (not counting yourself) at a 5-handed table are recreational, both by their stats and their actual play.
If the 3rd guy doesn't tag along after a pot lead by SB you're lighting money on fire, because a pot lead is almost always at least a combo draw here, which you are about even against:
40 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 8sTc4cKh
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AsTsKs6d 47.50% 19 0
Kc9cJd7s 52.50% 21 0
And you're looking at 5 to 10% equity against sets here:
AsTsKs6d 5.00% 32 0
TT23 95.00% 608 0
AsTsKs6d 10.00% 192 0
4427 90.00% 1,728 0
My point is: Without at least a Gutshot and/or a club blocker this is a dubious play, especially since SB has Reg-ish stats.
Other than that great video as usual, you're doing excellent work and I appreciate your content.
I agree that my statement needs a little clarification if I didn't specify in this part of the video. I agree with you that my hand isn't going to be one that is "usually the best hand" without the redraw or necessary blockers as far as river playability goes vs known good regs. I play without a HUD on Ignition, so I just simplify the process by taking lines and using exploits against what the pool does on average. In that spot it is insane how often the SB is leading a range that is much wider than he should from what I have seen so far. If it is a known good reg/tough player, then I agree that my play should actually be to often flat as we aren't in great shape against an optimal range. Thanks for the feedback and glad you enjoyed the video!
At 23:00 with KK72ds on QsJs59 board. In case where we do get called here I think potential rivers merit discussion.
I think any non-spade river (Except maybe "K") we have to jam if we get checked to. Overpair can't be good enough often enough on the river here.
It's quite obvious he doesn't have KT at this point, so I think his most likely hand if we do get called here is something like AsTs8x where he has a bottom straight and a flush draw which we would like him to fold.
On a spade river even though we kind of arrive, if he donk shoves we actually have to consider folding as one of the options.
It's quite hard to believe he could call Turn with just As blocker and bottom straight.
He might have had a Set with As blocker which he thought about turning into bluff if Flush hits but that also seems a bit farfetched. And I don't really see him just jamming a 3rd flush or worse here.
Oh yeah, I'm glad you found this spot and I wish I would have discussed some river cards/plans! Great points and I agree I think it is unlikely he calls the turn with just the As blocker and bottom end of the straight. I believe I would have jammed a king river for value and jammed most river cards for sure as an overpair is as you said likely not going to be good often enough to check back. Most players in this pool aren't good enough to plan ahead to the river to turn certain combos into donk bluff shoves, so that can be taken into consideration of course when trying to range him if he does in fact just call the turn raise. I would expect a donk shove on a spade to be the nut flush very often. I don't see these guys bluffing that spot often enough to warrant defending in an optimal manner. Thanks again for the comments/feedback. Always fun to have discussions with guys in this community!
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Interesting video, would you recommend these moves at plo 10 and 25?
Couple of two pair hands multi way on wet boards where I wouldn't be looking to stack off., I know it's player dependent, but Its really open my eyes to how aggressive we need to be in certain spots.
Hi Wayne. I think in general yes because most lower stakes pools aren't going to be balancing their play well enough to hide their transparency. The wet boards actually tend to be ones that can be argued to be attacked more because players are often betting for value and protection always fearing bad run outs on these boards, so they very often aren't getting tricky or playing their value hands in their ranges slow. When players check back flops or suggest in any way with their lines that they are capped you can attack in the same manner like in some of the example hands in the video. As you said it becomes a little more player and player pool dependent once you develop reads and once you play in tougher pools players will likely be more balanced, but in general I think players in these specific pools should bet thinner for value and look for good spots to take aggressive lines to attack capped ranges. Now, of course keep in mind that if you are 3-5 ways post flop then you don't need to be attacking so often, but if you are HU or 3 ways a lot of the time, then probably look for more spots to attack whether you are bluffing or going for value. Thanks for the feedback and question! Feel free to ask more if need be.
At 14:55 you say and I quote "Top 2 is very often going to be the best hand here".
I find it utterly perplexing how Americans (I'm not talking about you here specifically) can complain not being able to play on Stars, etc. when you have a player pool (according to Nick Johnson) where top 2 is often good in that spot.
It's just bizarre - I know z50 regs that would give their left nut to be able to play in pools where 3 out of 4 other players (not counting yourself) at a 5-handed table are recreational, both by their stats and their actual play.
If the 3rd guy doesn't tag along after a pot lead by SB you're lighting money on fire, because a pot lead is almost always at least a combo draw here, which you are about even against:
40 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 8sTc4cKh
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AsTsKs6d 47.50% 19 0
Kc9cJd7s 52.50% 21 0
And you're looking at 5 to 10% equity against sets here:
AsTsKs6d 5.00% 32 0
TT23 95.00% 608 0
AsTsKs6d 10.00% 192 0
4427 90.00% 1,728 0
My point is: Without at least a Gutshot and/or a club blocker this is a dubious play, especially since SB has Reg-ish stats.
Other than that great video as usual, you're doing excellent work and I appreciate your content.
I agree that my statement needs a little clarification if I didn't specify in this part of the video. I agree with you that my hand isn't going to be one that is "usually the best hand" without the redraw or necessary blockers as far as river playability goes vs known good regs. I play without a HUD on Ignition, so I just simplify the process by taking lines and using exploits against what the pool does on average. In that spot it is insane how often the SB is leading a range that is much wider than he should from what I have seen so far. If it is a known good reg/tough player, then I agree that my play should actually be to often flat as we aren't in great shape against an optimal range. Thanks for the feedback and glad you enjoyed the video!
At 23:00 with KK72ds on QsJs59 board. In case where we do get called here I think potential rivers merit discussion.
I think any non-spade river (Except maybe "K") we have to jam if we get checked to. Overpair can't be good enough often enough on the river here.
It's quite obvious he doesn't have KT at this point, so I think his most likely hand if we do get called here is something like AsTs8x where he has a bottom straight and a flush draw which we would like him to fold.
On a spade river even though we kind of arrive, if he donk shoves we actually have to consider folding as one of the options.
It's quite hard to believe he could call Turn with just As blocker and bottom straight.
He might have had a Set with As blocker which he thought about turning into bluff if Flush hits but that also seems a bit farfetched. And I don't really see him just jamming a 3rd flush or worse here.
Oh yeah, I'm glad you found this spot and I wish I would have discussed some river cards/plans! Great points and I agree I think it is unlikely he calls the turn with just the As blocker and bottom end of the straight. I believe I would have jammed a king river for value and jammed most river cards for sure as an overpair is as you said likely not going to be good often enough to check back. Most players in this pool aren't good enough to plan ahead to the river to turn certain combos into donk bluff shoves, so that can be taken into consideration of course when trying to range him if he does in fact just call the turn raise. I would expect a donk shove on a spade to be the nut flush very often. I don't see these guys bluffing that spot often enough to warrant defending in an optimal manner. Thanks again for the comments/feedback. Always fun to have discussions with guys in this community!
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