Super Tuesday Win (Part 3)
Posted by Apoth
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In the QQ v J9 hand, if you're so far ahead of his range, why not a small 5 bet to either induce a shove from him or get him to commit more chips?
Once he puts in a raise there is almost no person playing these stakes, even weaker players in these fields, that won't recognize that Apotheosis is never folding here. Also you would never cib with your bluffs here OOP either and with this kind of ICM you wouldn't want to cib anyway and let him peel properly with Ax for an amazing price. Just doesn't make sense to put in 750k+ and fold with 1.2 million behind or something like that.
That ^^
23:53. Do you think the EV of a shove with AJo is higher than the EV of a 3b/f. If so would you mind modeling that.
25:30 How are you proceeding against a 4bet here. Seems like a disastrous spot to get it in.
AJo is def just a mistake. Pretty clear 3b/fold imo.
AQo I would fold vs a 4b or call if it was small enough. Def not getting it in. Felt obligated to 3b though given how far ahead of range we are.
Hey Chris, regarding your reply above:
* ICM says that your AJo 3-bet-shove makes ~+0.05% EV of prizepool left so +$11'800 EV shove vs a 17.4% HJ open. A pretty good play given he must call so tight (ICM says 2.1%, JJ+ AKs only) so not a mistake!?
Right, I see what your saying. I think Phil actually made a good video on this somewhat recently. The fact that this is +EV doesn't necessarily make it the best play (or even a good one). My hand is strong enough and he has to call tight enough that it is in fact a winning shove (although you could argue he won't fold appropriately which may cost us both money and distribute it to the remaining players). Even ignoring that though, it's very likely that 3b/fold outperforms it because he still has to shove very tight and it's somewhat unlikely I'll get bluffed here. My hand performs extremely poorly against his calling range when I do shove.
Hello Apotheosis.
Very nice format and a good tempo.
About 18:40:
Costi Holdem opens with 18.3bb [JJ] in UTG2/LJ-1 and it folds to DJ.Antoi with 31.8bb [88] who shoves. You say, that it is a "pretty standard cooler - Jacks have to open and eights have to shove"
But do eights really have to shove?
Shouldn't Costi Holdem be opening very tight here - stack sizes and position taking into consideration; something between [88+,A9s+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+] 8,57% and [66+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KQo] 12,3%
(ranges that 88 have 41,82% to 47,84% against).
88 do have a profitable CC obviously - but I would think that the shove is kind of borderline.
If we give Costi Holdem the
a: tightest opening range I suggested
[88+,A9s+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+]8,57% and the calling range [TT+,AQs+,AKo] 4,08%
Then the shove is 4,25bb0,524+0,476(0,330420,5bb-0,6696*18,3bb)=-0,38bb
31,9% he ends up loosing an allin and becomes the shortest stack left (13,4).
b:the loosest opening range I suggested
[66+,A8s+,KTs+,QTs+,ATo+,KQo]12,3% and the calling range [99+,AJs+,AQo+]5,88%
Then the shove is 4,25bb0,522+0,478(0,365920,5bb-0,6341*18,3bb)=0,26
30,3% he ends up loosing an allin and becomes the shortest stack left (13,4bb).
Do you think that these ranges are way of?
If not, is this not a very high variance/low reward situation, and wouldn't a flat be a better play with eights.
Regards
/J
No one is opening tight enough imo. I think its fine to just get it in and deny his equity etc.
lol cow tipping
Great series, a lot of cool insights, thanks Chris! 2 questions:
16:37 I inputed this spot in HRC; given BU is so loose and can open so wide being the big stack, SB can reshove 24.2%, 22+ A2s+ A8o+ K7s+ KTo+ Q8s+ QJo J9s+ T8s+ 98s. So 98s would have been pretty good even given ICM considerations
30:22 given ICM here in villain's shoes and a strong suited hand i think open-jamming tend to do better than min-raising. At least this is what HRC indicates. Even jamming AKo would be better here as mid-stack with 2 short stack. Only TT+ would do better as min-raising. What do you think about open-jamming in that spot?
16:37 Right, I agree shoving wins if we know exactly how wide donk committed shoves and calls. The problem is some guys call too wide here which hurts newguy. I think both shove and call are reasonable though as I stated in the video.
30:22--> It's reasonable to only shove here at 22 BBs and not have an opening range. That being said, it's not necessary I don't think and it's probably close between the two strats. I could be swayed either way based on other players tendencies.
Hey man, cool video.
Just a question on the q9cc spot in 3bet pot on 108xss, after check calling flop, when it does go check/check as it did are you basically bluffing all rivers lower than a Jack? Obv Ace and King are bad to bluff as you said and Q is a check and Jack is a value bet. Seems like in a exploitative sense, we would need to be bluffing a lot on this river to make check calling flop best, though I could be completely wrong. Just wondering what your thoughts/assumptions are for river as played.
Thanks!
Yea I mean it's definitely a dicey spot. I probably jam all the lower cards. I'll have some reasonable hands here ( I x/c some flopped pairs and will make straights/2p etc on some of the low runoffs.) Also, given our potential reads on the weakness of his hand it's probably low risk that he finds a hero call with a rivered 3rd pair or (just cause it's a big FT etc).
@17:02 Flop A62r, are we peeling about 21 combos of King high bdfd? K3-K10 suited not a pair on the rainbow board. QJ and Q 10 bdfd? which turn a pair and wont bet river. Then we will also have 16 combos of 45, 4 combos of 34s (or do you have all the 34o combos here?), 4 combos of 53ss, So approx 45 bluff combos on river? 21+16+4+4
I counted approx 120 pair of Aces or better value combos. Shouldnt we bet closer to a little above 1/3 pot instead of a little under? How are you playing these King high bdfd combos, bluffing all of them on the river? Or are we bluffing less of the King high combos to make the less than 1/3 sizing proper?
If we have more 34o combos. And do we have 53o combos? If we do that would be an even higher % of bluffs and we should go even more above 1/3 pot bet. Is my math incorrect? should we have all 53o in our bb calling range vs button even w ICM?
How do we protect our checking range on the river when all we have on the river if we check is a bluff catcher, most likely a pair of 6s? Call 1-A for our checking range on river if we think opp is capable?
@20:05 Sintoras Folds ATss to newguy after it gets x thru and turn comes an A on 67Kcc . You said this was a crazy fold but Newguy was playing pretty snug. Newguy was folding A 10o utg as seen in replayer. Not really playing many hands this episode. His turn sizing was 56% of the pot into 4 ppl where if DJ antoi has an ace he probably isnt folding so less incentive for newguy to go that sizing w an Axss type of hand. So we have to be good here more than 26% of the time. Is an explo fold like this that crazy? He did not seem like the type to be raising Ax suited hands when DJ Antoi has 12 bbs.
@17:53 DJ Antoi opens Q5cc on 33 bbs. Anything to be said for attacking piet cuz he was tight, newguy on button was tight. DJ had a kind of crazy image where i think ppl would be less likely to bluff him; not knowing how he would react and he might be a calling station to 3bs. I get Q5cc is a terrible hand and he just has a bunch of better hands he could open here with, so its unnecessary to open Q5cc here, but he might have an image where ppl wouldnt mess with him. If thats the case, shouldnt everyone be trying to go after piets blinds as much as they can?
@ 39:29 We fold J4o in the bb to a 2.14x sb raise. We only need 23.7% eq here. Whats the worst hand we will call here given ICM conditions and DJ being chip leader and the pressure he can put on us.
thanks for the great video
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