Super Tuesday (part 2)
Posted by Lucas Greenwood
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Great you are back on essential, or is it a mistake ?
anyway I liked this free vid :)
it looks it has been fixed as I can't see the last comment
Idk confused think you might of ran well Arnaud this video is listed under elite tab now but his title says Essential.
I like ur thought process about the last hand, I just run a ton of simulations and respect them almost always maybe I should consider all the things you mentioned in the vid too. His range is so face-up and it sucks to fold a hand as strong as AQo in that spot even tough ICM dictates to be very tight. You mentioned the option of open shoving, and I think this would be the most ez/safe way to play the hand, but I'm results oriented I guess. Ugly run out, def u were very unlucky.
GG, good video!
I like that you go with your gut on the close ones. Nice to know that top pros don't discount intuition. Of course it's partially fuelled by having done all of the work so many times
In between TT and QJ hands (~25minutes into video) you lost significant amount of chips.
Would like to see such hands in the future videos :).
Thank you :)
Unfortunately my hem erased a lot of hands but I'll take a look when I get a chance and see if there's anything interesting.
Thanks for the in depth vid as always. Love the work you put in it!
@25.45 I like your analysis of the spot, but I don't totally agree with the conclusion. You need him to fold 52% of the time with TT like you said and I think the ranges you gave both villains will be pretty accurate. But button is probaby 3 to 5 betting a reasonable range button vs cut off with like 88+ AJs+ AQo+ and will have a bunch of 3bet bluffs as well. So his 3betting range will be like 10-12% where off he only calls 3% of hands. So he is folding like 70-75% of the time which is a very important consideration in this spot. Therefore I would be jamming 99+ AQs AKo in this spot. I can see folding 99 and AQs as a valid option for ICM implications, but I think TT is too strong and get it in feeling very confident about the decision and don't agree that it's very close. Thoughts on this reasoning?
I think that's all fair, especially given his sizing, typically I would not 3bet, a lot of those medium hands as the btn, especially if we can induce the bb to shove light, however given how small he sized his 3bet its certainly reasonable that his range is more linear and we will have more fold equity because his range will be wider.
What do you think of villains Ac3c call at 33min? Seems pretty bad without even taking ICM into account or am I missing something??
I dislike his call ott, I think villain has a very easy flop c/r and once he whiffs that I'm not rly sure what the best line is, the fact that he allows me to play my hand the way I did kinda shows why c/r flop is much better for bb. I haven't done math but I'd guess his turn call is slightly -ev, I'll try to get around to it, but not making any promises.
great video. i think with your pot sized shoves, you may not be getting paid bc they just dont have a good bluff catcher but I'm also noticing you may not have enough bluffs in some of these spots unless you turn pairs into bluffs, which you may do to balance, but some boards dont have natural bluffs
Cool vid. Good to see ICM explained although I'm not quite there:
@ 49:10 - When looking at the % of chips in play converted to ICM value I don't understand how the shortie's 5.3% stack can be worth $53.91k when 4th only gets $44k.
Can you go into a bit more detail as to why these stack %'s equate to those ICM values. Also, anything you can explain about ICM would be great.
I'm particularly interested in how ICM implications change & affect the dynamics we can abuse as the stack sizes fluctuate between close to greater disparity - (that may be a question for another time).
Also can you explain the process to derive X...
Good questions, a lot too cover, I'll try to do a video in the future on this subject because its going to take a long time answer all that in depth.
Cliffs though:
Shorty's stack is worth 54k because he can still ladder up, he's going to come 4th a lot but probably has like a 5% chance of winning, maybe less, That said 44k is the least he can get.
The rough idea for ICM is you estimate a finish distribution for each player based on the % of chips they have and than you estimate the value of those chips based on the prize pool.
http://www.icmpoker.com/icmcalculator/
That's a link to an ICM calculator, if you input payouts and stack sizes it will provide a probability distribution for each player based on the how likely they are to finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc. The main adjustment of ICM is you don't want to get all in against players who cover you and risk laddering up while short stacks survive and receive greater payouts
ICM models typically undervalue having big stacks, because with big stacks you get a lot more future profitable opportunities where you can force people to fold hands that are +cev because they don't want to eliminate themselves, I would add ICM also does not factor skill of the remaining players, so if you believe you are more skilled than your opponents you should expect your true value to be higher than ICM.
@ 18:16 your prior investment in the pot is a sunk cost. You say folding has -8k EV but in reality at the point of decision, folding costs you nothing, it's 0 EV I believe
@44:00 you say it's not a good shove from x_zola25 with T8o. If you call 15% of hands in BB here and SB calls 13%, T8o is almost a 1bb EV shove. Why do you think it's not a good shove? more importantly, does ICM play a consideration even tough he is the shortest stacks?
Thanks for your time Lucas, very appreciated
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