Haha, I don't remember saying that, but maybe in a certain 1 or 2 orbit time span that was the case. It's tough to bluff anyone about my image when you see every hand I play! And there are some very loose hands in this HH.

3:56

72o defense was epic

Curious about this as well.

+1 Looking for further explanation on that jam.Def not standard.

Great question. I have no idea how we missed this spot while recording. What's more is I don't even remember seeing it during recording. Now that I look back, I remember it in-game, and not feeling great about the spot. My thoughts on first glance here currently (before running any numbers) is that it's reckless and ambitious. In-game, my thinking was that GM was opening wide enough to be folding enough to my shove that I could profitably make said shove. I also thought that the flatter almost never had a hand that could call my shove. Again, in this moment now, before completing any math on the hand, I do not think this is +EV.
The math is tedious. I think I am capable, and will attempt it if necessary. However I am hoping there is a generous soul out there who has the ability to do this pretty quickly/easily. The following is my best guess at ranges, with a slight bias toward them being unfavorable for the profitability of shoving (I.E GH opening about as tight as I could imagine, and the flatter flatting all AA combos).

Ranges (card removal accounted for):
GM_VALTER UTG2 (Top 25% of hands, 23.75% in effect after card removal. 32BB stack): 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,A7o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

vijiboy LJ (5.5% of hands. 33BB stack): AA,88-77,AJs,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,AQo-AJo,KQo

Omoschan90 SB (15% of hands. 6BB stack): 22+,A6s+,KTs+,QJs,JTs,A9o+,KJo+

I think GM_VALTER perceives my range to be 8.25% of hands: 77+,ATs+,KQs,ATo+

I am getting 2.4:1 to call the shove. GM_VALTER is getting 1.42:1 to call my shove.

I think KJo was way too loose here. I think we should Jam 88+AQ+.

I like the shoving range suggested by Jason, but what about just flatting? Doesn't it look pretty strong? Don't we want to flat huge hands like KK/AA and thus could also add hands like 77/AJ which are also ahead of the shover's range? I tend to only have a flatting range here, so I am curious what you see as the drawbacks. Is it that we are offering too good odds to original raiser? I don't think he is calling us very light in that spot, nor iso shoving due to our perceived range's strength, and his stack to pot ratio, but I could be wrong. Would be interested in your thoughts.

I think you can fold kq off at 27:49. Even chip ev wise it's a fold, and given that you might still be on the bubble, and the fact that your chips aren't worth straight cash value, it's a close fold imo.

I agree, or atleast I dont think you can say hes shoving "K8s+" or any broadway, I dont think we can assume hes shoving JTo, QTo, KTo. Although were dominating QJo i think we can fold, but with our stack it cant be that bad.

edit: said this before he woke up with QJo, obvious call now.

Thanks for the post Majin. The pure numbers arrive at the same conclusion you reached; that in a nash equilibrium we should fold this. However the exact amount of loss is different, since I had the benefit of having the actual HH. Thanks for the post though, definitely helpful =) Also, villain is shoving 1 pip wider than nash allows here, so it's an interesting hand to see at show down for us in terms of drawing conclusions about his range. He very well could be shoving 2, 3, etc. pips wider than nash, and we have no way of knowing. Here is our calling range, with KQo losing .69BB.

Valid points are made about the slight ICM implications involved in this hand, although my understanding is that we should be playing mostly from a CEV standpoint in this spot for this little of our overall stack. With villain being wider, and potentially much wider than nash, to me the end result is super close. I don't know where I stand ultimately, which is a little bit annoying!

Hey BlackOps.

Good eye on the 44 spot. I still do think it's an open, but I like where your head's at here, because often times in similar conditions I would be folding this hand. Here I don't mind having this hand in my opening range because 1. I have a lot of chips and want to be opening a wide range to being with (a bit vague here, let me know if you'd like me to expand a bit) 2. Table is 8 handed. 3. Does okay vs the BB when he defends, which is one of the more outcomes when one opens in EP. 4. It's an okay hand to 4b allin with (realistically I don't see myself doing this vs anyone at this table - I have no reason or reads to make me think that anyone here would be light enough for this to be optimal). The many reshove stacks make this open less than ideal, but I still think it's +EV. And I'm going to err on the side of being two wide in terms of a low variance, 2BB (potential) error.

As for the KJo hand, another good question. Raphael beat you to it above, and there is a discussion forming under his post.

Hey, thank you man =) I'm glad you enjoyed the video. And also thank you, for leaving a response to the question I asked about HUD filtering. Interesting thoughts. I would say that if you can combine the focus that you have when your HUD isn't up, or up without many hands on the villains, with a good sample size of HUD hands and an active HUD, that would be most optimal for you. I have had terrible HUD habits over the years, but the fact is it's a powerful too, and we must be comfortable with using it.

Based on some feedback I've gotten here and from friends privately, I've changed my HUD to filter separately for HU and 3-10 players.

Hey man! Awesome post, really really good. And thanks for sharing thoughts from your perspective, it's super helpful for me in looking at this situation, and I imagine for others as well.

My first thought in looking at this hand here is that I would only have a folding range and a shoving range. No flatting and no small 4b. To me the sizing that you made PF on your 4b is 4betting a bigger percentage of my entire stack than I am used to. I suppose my idea is that it makes facing a 5b an unclear spot for us - we may not know how to correctly proceed. But really, how difficult will it be? We should pretty easily be able to range the villain for his 5b, look at our equity and our pot odds and make a decision. And there is also a clear plus side to this sizing you choose - you are able to 4b fold some hands if the UTG player 5bets. The way I play this spot, I would have been allin already with my 4b, and I would be getting stacked. I don't have a firm rule in my mind about how much of my stack is too much to 4b or 4b or 5b pre and then fold, but this is right about the cutoff for me; somewhere around 1/3 of stack. Here your 4b is about 27% of your stack, so it actually looks just fine to me.

I think I am going to change to your approach on these spots :) 4betting to about 20k also lets you have more 4b bluffs, which is a very good thing here. Your 4b range looks excellent. It seems very balanced and well constructed. I agree with you about the hands that you add to your 4b bluffs if you're facing a villain who has a wide 3b range.

However my favorite part of your post is your point about villain not being able to realize all of his equity because of the 1:1 SPR. That's a great point. Even though I agree with that, and think the math puts you in a very favorable spot OTF here, I would still like to see the 4b be a tiny bit bigger, just to increase your FE PF a bit more. It's a much better win for you to get him to fold pre and capture all of a nice pot right away, then encourage him to see a flop with a range that will flop decently, and let him realize some of his equity that way.

Exploitatively, I strongly agree with your fold here OTF after checking. Your Jc blocker is obviously super important. And I just see people betting their Kx this way a lot, trying to represent flush draws. And sure, sometimes they will have the actual flush draw - however not here given your blocker. What I very rarely see is someone pure bluffing here with this sizing. So I think you're looking at a lot of KQ here when you face this bet size on the flop. Also, your hand looks a lot like JJ or QQ to them, and many players won't expect you to fold that vs a flop shove in this situation.

Awesome post Pawel, I got a lot out of it. Thank you.

(edit: great work on OddsOracle here to figure out the flop situation. That's the way to the top man =) )

Hahaha, good a good chuckle out of this link, thanks for that. Check out that song Bad Guy if that's at all up your alley and you know some of his prior songs/characters. It's just a fantastic creation, really impressed by it.

Also - glad you liked the video! Haha.

Haha :) You're welcome.

Nice song btw.

Good call. Ya I used to make good use of that current session feature (obv) and plan to again, as I've abandoned the filtering idea. It does seem more useful for SNG play though , good idea. Thanks a lot for heeding the call and leaving your thoughts. And crocs with socks, lool.

The other strategy here is to have a HUD which has the filters on and one which does not - I only ever really use it when deep in something and playing short handed/specifically a 6m tourney. I don't think you lose much by setting your main HUD to exclude <8h play for when 8+ players and showing stats for all hands when <8 players and only filtering out FR hands when it really matters and you may have a sample by just switching your HUD to a specific short handed version of your regular HUD

Sharp question John. I don't cbet more when stacks get lower, because it becomes much easier for the OOP player to play. Like say I open MP and he calls in the BB with 19BB. I have QJ and the flop comes 872. I don't cbet this because there is a good chance that villain will just check shove me with any pair or draw that he flops. I can't call that shove with QJ, yet if I check back, there are plenty of cards that I can happily call on the turn -QJT9, and a couple cards I can potentially bluff on turn and /or river (A,K). The way to describe this is that I let myself realize equity on the turn by simply checking back, when I could get check/shoved off if it were I to bet the flop. Of course this is a double edged sword a bit, because I give him a chance to win the pot with hands like K6 suited that would simply fold to my cbet.

In terms of sizing: sizing is always a function of stack depth and board texture. So even when stacks are ~20BB effective, on wet board textures I will cbet to a bigger size. I will do this with my whole range (that chooses to cbet).

Off the top I said "I don't cbet more when stacks get lower" and I think it's safe to say that I actually cbet a bit less in these conditions.

Another key thought, John- You get to c-bet more as stacks get shallow because get in ranges are wider. A ton of hands that cannot take the heat when stacks are deep can now easily bet-call shoves.

So if I got it well, Nick is actually saying he is c-betting less often at shallow stacks, checking behind to realize his equity tp avoid being shoved over from OOP vilain, whereas Jason c-bets more to bet-call? so you'd play more straightforward at these stack depth bet-calling every time pairs+, gs+ but checking behind all non-made hands? you seem to have divergent opinion, thanks a lot in advance for clarifying!

I was going to come in and answer, but Nick seems to have it under control! Glad you enjoyed the video! In my opinion they get better as we progress further, so something to look forward to! :)

I have a friend who has used his HUD like this, to filter stats based on the villain's stack size. I am not sure if he is still using it this way. I know one thing he did was make custom stats for each stack size. That way he could have his HUD display the entire sample, but when he clicks on it, he gets data on the villain over many different stack sizes. This take a bit of work to get going, but it sounds great once you have it. As a default, I would just keep your sample together and go from there. You will be good at making assumptions based on their overall HUD stats + your knowledge of general player tendencies on X stack size.

72o definitely -EV. Don't know how I let such a simple -EV mistake happen (facepalm). I think 84o is a good hand to ask about, because it seems right on the border to me. Yes vs a lot of regs who open reasonably wide I will find myself usually defending 84o. I'm not certain if this is correct, because I have done no math on these situations, it is just me basically assuming it is +EV because, as you noted, the price we are getting preflop. And 84o is just much different than 72o. With 84o there are so many situations on the turn where we will have a reasonable hand (gutshot or better) to semibluff with. 72o just never even flop/turns a gutshot, lol.

My thought with 84o and similar hands is that it can't be a huge mistake, either way. So I wouldn't worry too much about it. I mean ideally we would all know exactly what hands/range to defend in every situation, but to me that just takes too much time and work to sit down and do, and the gain from figuring it all out isn't going to be super huge, so I would rather spend my time and energy in other areas.

Thanks for the post man, and sorry it took me so long to reply.

GL,
Nick