Sunday Million & FTOPS Main Event (part 3)
Posted by Espen Sørlie
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FINALLY!!!!
Talk about building the suspense!
Haha Thanks!
Great video buddy.
Can you share some more of your thoughts on the JT hearts shove from SB in Sunday Milly Vs BtOpn? I.e. Shoving Vs 3bet.
It was the only part of this video that seemed a bit 'wild' imo :)
Thanks
too much equity against calling range to 3bet/fold, lots of fold equity and against 2,5x from a seemingly aggro opponent we are just printing in this spot
Andre is right. I will get so many folds that when you add the equity we have with this hand when called, it makes it +ev. Potentially we could call, but we will be oop, if we even get to a flop that is. Flatting gives the BB an excellent squeeze all in spot.
so you assume he'd call you with 5.43% (99+,AJs+,AQo+), does that seem reasonable?
in that case you have 33.6% equity when called and you need him to fold over 65% of hands for the shove to be +EV..
As he open ~50% in late position, that means he will fold close to 90%, so clearly +EV 3-bet semi-shove, you are effectively printing money
on the flip side, vilain needs 44% equity to call you down and he knows you'd probably never do that with JJ+, AQ+ as you would induce a 4-bet spazz with..so this might incline him to call maybe lighter than first assessed. as a solid player would mostly put you on 22-TT in that spot..
All-in-all a great play, I'll include it in my arsenal, thanks Espen:)
Yes. I think he would have to call a lot more than 5.43% (99+,AJs+,AQo+). If that is his calling range we probably print shoving 32o here. Didnt do maths on this right now as I am kinda busy. still think we are printing with JTs in the actual hand.
KQo on FTP 18.30, you cold 4bet and say your range is pretty polarized here. To have a polarized range we need a flatting range, if not its pretty senseless to polarize, right?
What kind of hands would you flat in this spot then?
hi.. nice video.. congrats..
39:00, AQo.. you snap call a 22bb shove from small.. dont you even think on fold? i mean, he is playing 16/11.. prety solid.. i think his range would be some like 44+, ATs+, KTs+, AJo+.. so, if this range is correct..
46.23% 41.39% 4.85% { AQo }
53.77% 48.92% 4.85% { 44+, ATs+, KTs+, AJo+ }
can you elaborate more your thoughts on this spot, considering variance, ranges, etc.. thankswe only need 43.67% equity because of the price we are getting. If the range you assigned him is correct, we have more than that and are making 12280 chips by calling here.
Great series! I think you should maybe have skipped the party tournament, the windows get a little small now and the million and ftops main are quite a handful themselves =)
thanks! Yeah, thats why this episode got a bit longer,, I wanted to finish the party one so I could focus on only those two in future parts!
@47 mins - I think your analysis is way off here. Villain is a good reg so folding KQo is criminal in that spot. He is likely shoving all Kx suited and a number off off-suit ones we dominate as well as a bunch of Qx. So for you to say his range is Ax and PP's, i'm not sure how you came to that conclusion. Calling here if we assume Villain is shoving Nash nets us +3.5bbs which is significantly better than the break even call that you claimed it was.
It seems to me you just folded because you didn't want to call off X amount of chips which isn't a good way to approach that spot. A +3.5bb edge in a tough field is and edge we cannot pass up.
Yeah I agree with you. Wasn't that what I said in the video? I said I see people often show up with small PPs and small Ax but I should call given the other broadway hands I dominate. fwiw I doubt he jams all Kxs and loads of Qxs, but sure if I fold this he sure can :P
At 47:30 KQo, I think it is too break-evenish to call there, might still be a good fold :), too risky for 20BB not knowing the exact opponent's range and not much pot odds. I think calling the 3bet-shove from BB at 50:20 with QJs is like 10x better spot, good odds and does well vs. the range and not many BB's to call.
I like the videos. :)
hello espen, congrats
at 39.59 you fold 22 to guy shoving utg for 5.6 bbs and don't even mention it
is this because of the 3 stacks under 200k behind? wouldn't it be a profitable iso then fold to the bigger stacks? or is it because you have to call those 3 stacks under 200k when they gii over the top that makes you fold instantly?
what range of small PPs do you play here, and how do you go about it?
thanks
Yeah I guess I did miss that one. I still like the fold, because there are so many stacks behind that can do something that we would have to fold to and completely miss out on all the equity in the hand after putting in 5.6bb dead. 22 isn't exactly crushing utgs range anyway so I don't think it's a big loss. I think (without having done extensive calqs) that with something like 55-66 we are starting to have enough equity for it to be worth it.
Nice video.
Im a small volume player who pay much lower ABI.
But not to crazy about opening 22 from EP around 44 minutes in FTops.
I would proberly rather open a rag Ax or Kx just for the blocker value + those will be more easy to play if for example big blinds desides to flat the opening.
Do you think it is + Ev to open small PP's with those stack sizes ?
I realise every situation is sorta unique, so maybe here it was the better play, but in general from your database are you winning with small PP's from EP when stacks are like these ?
The fact that the bb is so deep is not a bad thing. he can potentially flat kinda wide, but our set value is also bigger ip against more chips. I think it is kinda close to BE here but def not a mistake.
I really enjoy this format. Particularly how you pause and rewind to look at simultaneous spots. So many interesting spots in this run makes for excellent footage.
thanks! :)
Hey, just catching up with this series, very nice so far! Was wondering about the A8s at 33:00 if that is really a great spot to GII pre. I feel that fish often 3x with a strong depolarized range when they are shallow and deep in tournaments (should be even more so now he is on the FT). Therefore I don't feel we have a ton of FE with our 3bet, and fish generally will not spazz light in these spots and are usually a bit scared money in this spot. So perhaps it's better to let this somewhat marginal spot go because it's not like we really have to take any slightly +EV spot when you would play a FT full of regs, and we also have the fish on our direct right. What do you think?
Hey, thanks for your comment! I think I'm correct when I say that this player has been opening a decent bit when folded to and picked 3x as his standard sizing. I agree that in general fish usually does that with a tighter range but i wasn't sure if this was the case for this player. You make some good points about tournament considerations, and the fact is that it is really hard to quantify how much to sacrifice in terms of chips/stack reservation. I think I just felt like if he is opening a reasonably wide range and choosing 3x with all of them we are picking up a lot more than usual
And if he correctly reads that 3x is the villain's standard range so he doesn't do it with just the hands he's going in with, couldn't we 3bet shove pre? You reasoned that the BB is still in play, but my point is: Which hands is the BB going to call your 3bet shove for a pretty big part of his stack? We already have an A blocker, and possibly the button opener has some blockers as well, so does it make sense to sacrifice the strenght of your play by being cautious because of the BB hand? He cant get it in with much more of his AQ+, TT+ range, cause even with 99, he'd have to put his final table and the tournament place he has at the moment in risk, sometimes against 2 players. The thing is, when you 3bet the 3x raiser to the amount you 3betted, is he ever gonna fold with that pot odd? If your play is to get it in if shoved by him, shouldn't we shove and let him fold all is JTs type hands? Cause he's always gonna call with those hands and that equity and chips already in the table, and you're just gonna have to fold to his flop shove on any flop type such as the one you got,or others with J,Q,K... And you dont really have big postflop playability since you're not hitting a decent hand a big % of time. So doesnt it make sense to just shove pre? And consider only the effective size of the villain, since the BB must play really tight calling your shove?
Great series Espen! I really like your videos, overall, they really helped my game especially in late stage of a tournament. @ 45:05 in Party Poker Bounty with K9s UTG (6 players) you decided to open fold: is K9s close to being a shove or ICM considerations make it far from it? In that case with what are you open shoving then?
Well spotted, here is a print screen of a rough nash estimate with icm implications. It doesn't take the bounty into account, but at this stage it isn't a big deal. I also didnt know the exact payouts so I made an estimate.
It shows K9s as a tiny equity gain by shoving if people are calling nash. Im pretty sure I would jam KTs in the actual hand. (note that ATo is worse than K9s, KTs and JTs, but might make up for it in blocker value).
"sounds crazy but everyones in for a good sweat."
indeed.
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