Sunday Kick Off Review
Posted by Lucas Greenwood
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2:00 ... if utg raise and had no calls, do you still call! KQo? 3b/f is an option!? shove? thanks
I think folding is probably better HU and 3 ways TBH, if I were deeper I'd like 3b fold as stacks are I need to put in 25% of my stack and I'm short enough that I don't put much pressure on hands like 99/AQ etc, I think folding is the best option here, unless either player is too loose, would need some very loose players to consider shoving given that its a utg open and an mp call.
Great video, Luc. Around 14:00 when you discuss the button-player's shover range: If villain is a reg, don't you think he is more likely to flat the suited broadway hands; especially KQs, KJs and QJs? If that's the case you will not have more than 40% in this spot. Do you think btw. that he could have a 3b-range in this spot? Thanks for your time and congratz on the result.
I think that shoving those hands is a good play as well, he has a lot of FE, and is already shoving a range where I probably should fold AJ, AT, Axs, small pairs, KQo etc. The suited hands do have better equity AIPF, so while they play well as a call, they are good semi-bluffing hands PF, that have fairly good equity vs my calling range. Shoving and calling them are both reasonable, and I would do both depending on the specific situation.
9:30:what would you do with 8 x 6x(A6,K6s,6xwith bcfd) because if you shove all draw at all Qx, and you call with 8x and 6x get a very weak range on the turn.
I prefer much more to shove KQ QJ, Q7, Q5, Q4, Q3 with because with KQ,QJ gen value from weaker Qx, and with small Q its nice because not block any 99,TT who are call the shove and has several JT, JT, J9 and you do not want it chance to realize his equity.
I do not think it's any difference between Q9 and Q3, because he still does not give open with weaker than Q8. Anyway Q9 have a batter equity(3-5% than Q3) when you get call because u have more outs with 9.
I know that's not the final answer: Its better to shove one hand like Q9 , or something like Q3s, Q9 have batter equity when u get call, with Q3 do not let the chance to realize his equity by checking back turn and something like this. What do you think?
Thanks, nice video !
I'm going to have a lot of Qx, in my range I think raising it and calling it are close, vs this player I went for the raise because he was a loose opener, and thought he would have a lot of 8x 6x, I could be wrong, but I don't think there's gonna be a substantial difference in EV between raising Q9 and Q3 is particularly large, but I do think he's gonna be potentially opening all the suited Qs, so I do prefer having a slightly bigger kicker, particularly because he could have q8o
WRT to my range, it is a spot where I think I need to be flatting some of my Qx OTF for protection, it is also worth considering slowplaying my two pair (I'd shove 66,88 and QQ) pf. Lastly even though my flop c/c range is not particularly strong, it doesn't need to be, I'm getting 3.5:1 and there are a bunch of cards that potentially slow him down (6-J), so I should be able to continue profitably with my weak range, even if that means losing the pot 60% of the time.
I wanna say again how great I think you are at making these videos. So often am I watching a video and a pro describes the line he is taking and he will forget to mention why hes doing it and why he thinks that this thought process is the correct. I find that you are very thurough and expand your thought very well, I give this video 10/10. Keep em comin please!
31:23
You say you have a lots of hands you wanna shove here, and you mention hands like KQ, KJ, QJs hands. Vs wide flatters shouldn't they be opened and stack off if they shove as they have enough equity to call off anyways. You mention you don't want them to realize cheap equity with 89o, j8o, and hands like that. But with those hands you have them totally dominated when you go postflop. Don't it make sense to open those hands vs wide flatters? And shove these hands vs tight flatters? And AQ i agree w shoving AQ vs wide flatters as they will be calling with lots of worse hand anyways expecting you to induce top of range. Also you are not going to get too much action on A high flops anyways vs wide flatters, as they know they can't really represent to many A high boards so you're basically hoping for a Q high flop. Vs tight flatter it must be better to open AQ compared to raising? Or do my logic not make any sense?
I disagree with a lot of this post
With AQ I will def get action on A high flops, the bb especially should be peeling every A vs a min raise, not to mention i can get value from hands like 89 on A95 etc.
All cards have equity, letting the bb play a hand with 30% equity when he's getting great pot odds is simply not good for me, vs pretty much any player, at this stackdepth calling a minraise with even a hand like 75o should be profitable (unless the minraise range is weighted rly strongly towards big pairs), When I shove here I certainly benefit by forcing all the players to fld a bunch of hands, rather than choosing a smaller raise size and force the bb to play about 15% of hands instead of allowing him to play 2/3 of hands.
KQ QJs JTs etc play better has a shoves for sure, they fold out a ton of hands that have a lot of equity vs me, and also when I get called I am not in that bad shape because I will run into enough 99-22, AJ, AT, A9, Axs, KQ, KJ etc
@32.13 why do you 2.25x A7s at 12.5bb stack? why this sizing? with the nut suited hand we actually don't mind SB/BB piling a wide range of dominated suited hands, I'd be more inclined to raise your sizing with unsuited hand on the other hand. what's your view?
@42:30 very interesting i actually thought BU would open tighter when there is a short 8bb SB than if there would be a 18bb SB. He still has to open a hand that can call a 8bb shove but if deeper 18bb can open hands he really doesn't mind folding, thus making me believe he opens tighter in the 1st scenario. why do you think this is not the case?
thanks lucas
Basically because I think its weak enough that I can fold to a 3bet, I won't shove AA, KK etc here so I think I should have some hands that I r/f, the bad suited aces seem like fine candidates, particularly A7s and A6s because they play a little bit worse allin vs calling ranges than a4s and a5s. Also I'm not totally sure on this but I suspect we may have been close to the bubble or some sort of payjump.
I think he should def open a bit looser with the sb being very short, if the sb has 18bbs he can't raise call 89o, vs 8bbs he can. If he opens 89o vs an 18bb every time the sb jams he loses 2bbs, vs the shorter stack, he might be losing on a call with 89o and is certainly gonna be behind, however he gets to realize his equity.
Vs the 8bb stack if btn opens and sb shoves, if the btn could change his decision, and not open it would be more profitable, however he still can call the jam profitably. Vs the larger stack the btn has to fold to a jam, meaning he's losing 2bbs without getting to realize any equity, a much worse outcome.
great video. I see what your saying about the 8bb v 18bb stacks but i think the 8bb stack shoves more often, therefore making it more common that you will have a spot that is overall -EV. Even if calling the shove is +EV, it will not be +EV by more then 2bb, so overall it will be below 0ev (you have already committed 2bb at this point). Therefore, yes maybe its only -1.5bb when you get shoved on, but if you get shoved on way more often, you'd still rather lose 2bb less frequently when the 18bb shove stack is there
You make an argument for open ripping AQo and then later r/f A7s (I realize positions are different), however I think the problem you face in the AQo situation is when you are ripping majority of your range you have a really hard time balancing at all your r/c's ( I realize we can still use this as an exploit but I feel giving people the opportunity to rip wide over us with a hand as strong as AQ can outweigh worrying about the BB flatting) when you do decide to raise as most of your raising range from that spot will be r/f unless you are ripping all your premium pairs too which I think is not something you want to do vs the field especially with people defending as wide as they do, I really like the A7s r/f as you won't be opening extremely wide and will be able to balance that with enough calls. I think you should also take into account many people will peel small aces vs you and always go broke when an ace flops with these stacks.
The positions being different is extremely relevant,when I open in LP with short stacks, there are a lot of spots where I want to be jamming the majority of my open range, I certainly would not mind raise calling AQo, but in a spot where I will jam any pair, any suited broadways etc, I need to balance by shoving some strong hands as well
I agree theoretically you would want to be balanced but I think there is an issue with that which is a lot of times balance does not matter much in these spots at all meaning you have a bunch of randoms in this Sunday Kickoff and there range for calling you is really just not going to change based on the sample they have on you. I feel like you are giving too much up by open jamming AQo here when people will reshove wide on you with stacks often and you lose out on that happening at this point in the tourney. Also from a theoretical standpoint if you are just r/c something like JJ+ you are probably just going to end up with way too many r/f's.
When looking at the gain of jamming vs the gain of r/c with a hand like AQo in a program like HRC I think you will start to see r/c AQo is so much more valuable than even considering balance in this spot. Even when the BB flats I think the expectation is better than when we jam originally since we see the flop IP with a hand that can dominate hands they peel in the BB.
Hey Lucas. At 37:15 you check back 2nd pair on 2tone A high flop. This is always a spot that I can't decide whether to CB or check back, in that I worry about capping our range vs tough regs (we always CB our Ax combos with potential flush/straight draw hands in opponents range)? Obviously having position is awesome and if it goes bet bet on different runouts we can decide, but some people put me in awful spots here when I check back flop and I wonder if they are just exploiting my Qx capped range.
@ 9:00 Q9o
Maybe developing a leading range in that spot is also not a bad idea. Obv depends on those players tendencies as well. But i feel on that board texture we are not facing a cbet from the opener too often and overcaller is likely passive as well and will likely not stab when checked to a ton with air.
Nice vid!
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