Sunday Grand 1k NL Review (Part 3)
Posted by Lucas Greenwood
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very good video.
at 30min, with ur 43hh, if u c/jam turn on 743Thh , then wont u be too strong of range if just shove combo draws and 2pr+? Seems like he would be able to fold Tx-AA if u either have a bunch of outs or 2 pair. Dont we sometimes have to jam like 86 not of hearts?
Also, what is ur rule on re entry? if u can re enter 10k chips at 800bb (12.5bb) in a sunday major on ACR, do u think its winning? is 600bb the cutoff of when re enter?
Sorry for the late replies, I've been quite busy with the holidays and PCA, and haven't got around to it. I think jamming 43hh is a totally fine play, one of the reasons for this is because there are a lot of bad rivers for our a hand, in that they make it tough to call and reduce Moorman's river vb range. A T756 and heart all may slowdown moorman considerably. I'd that yes you are correct that shoving 86hh,89hh etc is perfectly fine play OTT, we can put a lot of pressure on villain's 1 pair hands that are valuebetting and force them at least consider folding.
As for the re-entry rule its hard to say it depends on the specific rake, softness of the tournament and also how close the tournament is to the money and the size of a min cash. Its also a function of your bankroll and how capable you are of handling another buyin with a low edge and high variance.
Around 11 minutes you choose to 3b small instead of just jamming. In terms of ICM considerations, wouldn't a jam be better since you're actually losing money versus a QQ+,AK range and "only" (not sure if it's a lot, but given it's a $1k buy-in?) making $107.58 versus JJ+,AK?
I did the following calculations using http://www.icmpoker.com/icmcalculator/ and then a pad and a normal calculator. If anyone could see if they agree with the calculations that would be lovely.
Versus JJ+,AK
Fold = 825,552 chips and $16,110.67
Shove and lose = 268,788 chips and $9,781.08 (60.22%) = 161,864.13 chips and $5,890.17
Shove and win = 2,169,074 chips and $25,963.56 (39.78%) = 862,857.6 chips and $10,328.08
Shove = 1,024,721.73 chips and $16,218.25
Net ($) EV of shove = $107.58
Versus QQ+,AK
Fold = 825,552 chips and $16,110.67
Shove and lose = 268,788 chips and $9,781.08 (61.17%) = 164,417.6 chips and $5,983.09
Shove and win = 2,169,074 chips and $25,963.56 (38.83%) = 842,251.43 chips and $10,081.65
Shove = 1,006,669 chips and $16,064.74
Net ($) EV of a shove = -$45.93
Didnt check the calculations on correctness but I am pretty sure that jam>3bet/call since he is not folding preflop (only if its 2 all ins in front of him). And due to ICM it might actually be a fold vs a 4bet jam - would be interesting to see the payoutstructure and put the hand in HRC. Also if you jam the openraiser should probably fold even AK/JJ but he has an easy jam if you 3bet non all in. Furthermore 3bet non all in gives the others almost 3:1 odds and opens up potential flat calls.
All theese (mostly the ICM factor) combined it might be the case that jamming is not just better but 3bet/calling is absolutely horrible in that spot.
Thanks for doing the math, I think that's a good analysis and shoving here very well could be the best play. The reason i chose to 3b less than AI (and it might be a mistake) was because I thought shoving makes my hand more face up as AK, TT etc, and by 3betting small it allows my range to be more uniform, I think you make a very compelling case that shove is better, but I'd add that while JJ might be an ICM fold from my opponents in practice I expected them to call a jam. Its also a reasonable concern that my opponents could flat hands like TT/JJ planning on getting it in on low card boards. TY for the analysis
Also its close because of how shallow we are but if 2 people end up AI behind me I need to give folding some consideration.
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