Sunday Brawl Review (Part 2)
Posted by Stephen Chidwick
Video Player is loading.
This is a modal window.
The media could not be loaded, either because the server or network failed or because the format is not supported.
Resume Video
Start from Beginning
Watch Video
10
Loading 18 Comments...
Are you defending your BB with 35 off suit against any opponent on the button? I know you're getting 4:1, but I just don't see this play that profitable.
Do you think it would be profitable if you were getting closer to 6:1?
Hi Cookeman, thanks for the question. It is hard to respond without a timestamp but I am rarely folding to a btn minraise postante with 53o from the bb.
hey stephen, thx 4 the vid
@39:30 when you cbet check-back turn with 88 on Qd-2d-2-4-Jd and end up winning vs 33:
If you were the BB and had 33 here, would you bluff the river? I think I may strongly consider doing so if I were in his spot, as my C/C range in that spot would look a lot like Ace highs, Qx, med prs and FD's, and when you chk back turn you probably are removing most if not all FD's and Qx from your range, meaning I (as the BB) could lead the riv with my FD's and Qx for value, and then turn some of my lower prs or even A-highs into bluffs on the river in order to try to get you to fold out your higher-medium pairs and random Jx hands that were cbetting flop and gave up, then hit the J on the riv.
Thoughts on this?
thx again
Hey Mikedpalo, good question.
I think its a reasonable spot for him to bluff the river. He will have some ace high hands with one diamond that are better to bluff but probably not enough of them to balance how often he has a flush or Qx. Probably bluffing all low pairs and all ace highs is too much though so just checking and trying to show down vs AK/AT might be the way to go with no diamond here.
Great vid Stephen!
At 19m you shove 99 for 24bb close to the bubble from mp vs an ep open. When I throw this in holdem manager vs an ep range of 55+, AT+, a bunch of suited Ax, broadways, and a couple sc's 99 shows a small profit of .5bb using a Cev model. If I assume that youre on the stone bubble using an ICM model and conservatively assume that utg is opening his same range (probably would open a little tighter on bubble than 55+), then 99 is a break-even shove. Additionally we are assumed to only get called by the opener w/ KK+,AKs which is obviously not correct (i.e. making 99 less profitable).
Do you firmly believe shoving 24bb w/ 99 in a bubble situation is the correct play? Can you expand a little bit?
Thanks tinyelvis,
Firstly I think his opening range will be looser given it is the bubble and he has a pretty big stack, also we are 8 handed not 9 and he is utg1 so I would give him more of an mp range. Additionally there are some flaws to using an ICM model in this spot as evidenced by the fact that it has him calling KK+. It doesn't take into account the fact that we keep playing down to a winner...the tournament isn't just going to end after this hand. Im not sure of the exact status with regards to the bubble but I think I would shove 88 fairly comfortably also and 77 would be the borderline hand.
As a side note I wouldn't classify .5bb as a small profit at all...thats 50bb/100!
Thanks tinyelvis,
Firstly I think his opening range will be looser given it is the bubble and he has a pretty big stack, also we are 8 handed not 9 and he is utg1 so I would give him more of an mp range. Additionally there are some flaws to using an ICM model in this spot as evidenced by the fact that it has him calling KK+. It doesn't take into account the fact that we keep playing down to a winner...the tournament isn't just going to end after this hand. Im not sure of the exact status with regards to the bubble but I think I would shove 88 fairly comfortably also and 77 would be the borderline hand.
As a side note I wouldn't classify .5bb as a small profit at all...thats 50bb/100!
Thanks tinyelvis,
Firstly I think his opening range will be looser given it is the bubble and he has a pretty big stack, also we are 8 handed not 9 and he is utg1 so I would give him more of an mp range. Additionally there are some flaws to using an ICM model in this spot as evidenced by the fact that it has him calling KK+. It doesn't take into account the fact that we keep playing down to a winner...the tournament isn't just going to end after this hand. Im not sure of the exact status with regards to the bubble but I think I would shove 88 fairly comfortably also and 77 would be the borderline hand.
As a side note I wouldn't classify .5bb as a small profit at all...thats 50bb/100!
Why if the guy is only calling in theory KK+ AKs against our 3bet shove after open raising even a tighist 10% range is less profitable? The more he folds, the more EV we gain from our 3bet shoving range
I'm not sure I understand your question. I think it's 'why can't we shove more hands if we are only getting called by kk+'. If so the answer is that in the icm model, winning 5bb when the shove gets through is not that valuable and running into kk+ is an absolute catastrophe.
So is it valuable .5bb profit ? Because it seems you contradicted or I maybe am getting something wrong, but in first place you say .5bb is too valuable as it is 50bb/100 and then you said that winning the 5bb here it is not that valuable, which I agree but this seemed confusing to me.
I actually worried about if 99 could still take the lowest variance line( flatting) and still showing a profit, or ir maybe you think it is hard to get a huge profit flatting there
And lastly, yea running into KK+ it is a disaster but what I meant is that if villains is folding +80% of his opening range he's folding way too much and shoving becomes more profitable
Thank you very much Stevie! ;D
~40:25 Would you cbet KJ on TQA, if flop would be rainbow in this spot? And would you cbet this rainbow flop against one opponent?
great stuff stevie, thanks for the input
@9:00 ofc it's more risky to XC 2ps on this type of board but I notice a leak of many players is to XR with 2ps here too often, leaving their XC range capped and vulnerable to barrell on wet boards. what's your view and how do you balance that?
@29:00 is this reshove from Big Huni with 9bb with an often dominated hand like A6o vs HJ 2x open and little fold equity standard?
Last but not least why are you 2.1x your open in later stages? i understand you want to give BB worse odds to flat but this size doesn't change the odds much compared to 2x..it seems all the defense at 2x will be also defense at 2.1x. do you use this standard opening size or will you adjust it given stack depth in later stages?
KJ hand at 40:25 what would u do if your opponent donk bets the river? To wich amount would you fold/call?
Hi stevie, congratz for videos.
1) I would like to know about T8s @ 50:00 why do you 3bet?
- cause BB could shove lightly more
- cause BB colud flat more hands and t8s don't play well oop in mwp with ep range
- cause you could reverse against ep opening range
- all points
Hi Stephen,
At 29:30, I was surprised by the BB flat w/AQo. Thought this would be a fairly standard 3b/c vs. CO even against a random.
Do you assume here that V thinks our 3bet range out of the BB would be fairly strong since we can profitably flat a lot of the hands that from other positions (e.g. BTN or SB) would be 3bet or fold? In other words he can perceive our 3bet range here to be relatively strong thus flatting > 3bet/c?
What's the bottom of your 3bet/c range here, AQs? (I'm assuming for simplicity he can't have any 4b/ here, think it's extremely unlikely due to the sizings and ranges)
Thanks for the vids.
7:30
If u get to the river and check, are u calling a bet on what cards ?
Be the first to add a comment
You must upgrade your account to leave a comment.