Sunday Million & FTOPS Main Event (part 4)
Posted by Espen Sørlie
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For the AQo hand you need 30.21% equity to break-even for chipEV and against a range of JJ+, AKs, AKo you have 28.15% equity. Nice video series! looking forward to the rest of the footage.
Thank you, I didn't have my pokerstove working at the time, but have now downloaded Equilab so I can do these calcs myself in the future. Seems like I was pretty close though even without the software :P
the hand where European opens and a very short guy 3 bets super tiny, dont you think hes range is highly weighted towards qq kk aa? i think so deep in a tournament like this sometimes you have to ignore pot odds in spots like this, i mean its a pretty big disaster to lose a 1.5 million pot because u pealed qj off and flop was q92, when u know villains range with that stack and that sizing is qq plus almost always, dont u think?
i just saw the guy 3 betting 100 times mega tiny, obv light most of the time i assume, but my comment from above was assuming hes a normal player, not a 3 bet maniac}
Can u pls show us how u set up ur HUD :)
It really is a standard set up.
VPIP/preflop raise/3b %/Cbet %
Screen name/number of BBs/Fold to Cbet/number of hands
Really awesome series! I remember railing some of this in real time.
I have a few questions about the 99 hand. I agree that by 3-betting you most of the time play a pot in position against a dominated range of a weaker opponent. Still, I tend to have difficulties in this spot, because 99 doesn't necessarily play so good postflop and you have to catch a really favorable board runout to get much value from dominated hands. I also feel like shoving the turn in the actual hand is a very risky play against this type of spewy opponent, who is not likely to fold any Ax. By making the sizing so small pre, I feel like this opponent will flat much more than perceiving this as a push or fold spot, which would make the 3-bet more reasonable IMO. Finally, by 3-betting you open yourself up to the possibility of being in a gross spot, if one of the aggro regs cold 4-bets out of the blinds.
Would it be reasonable in to flat in this spot in your opinion?
Thanks in advance and really looking forward to the next parts!
What time is that?
Starts around 4:30
OKey yeah,
I think against a player like that we are missing out on some value by flatting pre. We should esp with the effective stacksize, look to expand our value range. Your logic goes a little bit backwards when you say we have to catch a really favorable flop to get value from dominated hands, because that holds true when we flat also. by 3betting we get more of that value preflop assuming he is continuing a lot of worse hands. Even though he is spewey, I think on this runout he would have a really hard time calling my shove with a bare ace. people really dont want to bust at this stage no matter how loose they seem in other spots when they don't have to risk their tournament life.
If I get 4b from those aggro guys behind I might even stick it on them depending on sizing/timing.
Thanks! Def some valid points in that answer. I might want to overthink this spot in the future... :-)
bra video espen, gleder meg til resten ;)
So what do you do here with the A7s. And if button shoved u fold ?What if you were in the bigblind ?
What hand would you go with here ?
This is the warm up FT. And if it wasnt the FT, wht hands would you call with from SB BB ?
His raise size is really wierd. I assume he isn't folding and has to get it in really tight because og the 1bb stack and 8bb stack utg + some others. So I think this is a pretty easy fold given his tight range and that we also have icm impications. If it wasn't a ft I would easily go with this. If you want me to give exact ranges you can sens me the hand history and I will plug it into ICMizer
Thumbs up for the video series, it's great that you were recording during such an epic day. :)
It's both educational and fun!
Another great vid from u Esben. Really looking forward to the next parts, and to see the endgame dynamics of the best players in the world. Keep it up, think the AQ is really close :)
thanks! There will be some very cool surprises coming up:)
@ 33:40 when you talk about the hand on the Million, you mention that European is opening a lot and that his stats are not representative on his play right now: since you use PT4, have you ever consider turning the HUD of a villain in "session stats mode" to have a more realistic picture of a player?
I think it would be too few hands to go by then normally, but I can just double click on the stats to get those session stats. It is pretty helpful, but I don't want to have just those.
Yeah I agree with you, I use them just to balance lifetime stats, but the sample is often too small thus irrelevant!
38 mins the AQ hand I think is closer than most people are stating here. Veeeea is good enough (and by that a stage of a Sunday probably down to a few tables) to have a feel for the situation. I know it's a massive levelling thing but I feel he can be shoving 99+ as he will have a good idea that a lot of aces have probably been removed from the deck and AJ-AK are probably represented somewhat due to previous action and he will see that you know that the 3 bettor can be wide as European is so aggro etc..
Not saying it's a hi five or anything but think that it may closer to a call than fold.
You talk about the utility of having a 30 bb stack compared to a 10bb stack but i also feel the value of having big stack in a tournament like this cannot also be underestimated as casual players look to ladder etc...
Anyway interesting series so far have been saving it to watch in one go congrats on the score etc..
Exactly my thoughts too on why I think it's so super close..
In the AdJd(27:02) what u think about make a bigger size on the turn to shove the river? I think that most of the players will not be able to fold and Ace in this spot and u can double up with bigger sizes in earlier streets.
Certainly a possibility, but I felt like the likelyhood of him calling me down with his one pair Ax would significantly drop and we narrow his range down to be almost just better hands. if you look at the possible better hands (A7 A2 A9 A3) and the worse ones (A4 A5 A6 A8 AT), there aren't that many more worse than better ones. ofc more combos of each of the one pairs than two pairs, but we don't want to give him a chance to fold his worse aces and make the bet unprofitable. It really depends on the villain, in this case you might be right.
Does opening the lobby helps you in making +EV decisions at the table?
from my experience, it really distracts from playing my best poker, as getting closer adds more pressure and makes me inclined to think about the future (and the hige prize) instead of being in the present and thinking hand-by-hand...
I don't think it makes much of a difference to me. in this case just wanted to fill the monitor space for the video and have easily accessible info on pay jumps etc. If you feel like you play worse with them open then that is a personal preference and you should not have them open. :P
Hey Espen,
@12:23 what is your general SB vs BB strategy in that particular spot with your whole range?
even if he vilains calls you light with 31% of hands (22+,A2+,K5s+,K9o+,Q8s+,QTo+,J9s+,JTo), you can shove any 2 cards here (except 72o) with 86o being +7378 chips (>+0.5bb) EV
ofc it is mainly dependent on what type of player is in the BB but my general strategy would be in this spot to raise-call the top of my range, raise-fold the bottom of my range, shove everything in between and fold really too junky hands that are not +EV..
Your comment seems reasonable, I play similarly to what you describe when readless. if someone is very tight I expand my raisefold range, if someone is very aggro I expend my raise call range etc..
Many preflop raisers do lead out or c bet in position. When you c bet the flop and chek the turn do i think you give your hand away.. I love to call a bet on the flop and if he/she chek the turn i just lead out and take down the pot. Not all ways work but if a player c bet the flop and chek the turn i try to take it down :)
Keep it up Espen i love your work on RIO. Thumbs up from Norway kompis :)
on th 99 hand 9th minute you say something about being capped around 9:50 what do you mean?
I said he is a little bit capped on the flop, probably meaning that he is unlikely to have super strong hands like AA JJ AK since he will likely shove those pre.
Man these videos are great Espen. I started to implement some of your tactics into my own tournament game and had a pretty good day playing on a small site. Really great series here def one one of my favorite videos I seen on rio so far. Looking forward to watching more of your videos. Keep up the great work.
If you think you have the best hand turn ... why folding river ?
I agree that your hand had a range advantage postflop/ flop but when you checking turn
You also kind of showing weakness of your hand and that could induce some bluffs.
THe 2 river doesnt change anything for me .
The sizing seems to be value but i feel like we got goods pot odds to call based on what you think about your oppenent.
Thanks for the video !
8:00 is the time . sorry .
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