Stud 8: WCOOP Hands Review (part 2)
Posted by Iteopepe88
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6:40. I personally think calling here is slightly worse than folding. You're not calling 7k to win 54,600. Your're calling to win 1/2 of 47,600 or 23,800 since we can assume we are never scooping here. 238000-7000 is about 23% equity needed to call.
My total equity in Troutulator is calculated with that...I can only win 1/2 of the pot, and that's why i have ~12,3% equity. I will win the high part of the pot ~24% of the time. Add the fact that he isn't betting his whole range, he needs to have a low+pair to bet, so if he has 54-2493-K he can't bet, despite he scoops me. That makes the hand a call for me, but i agree that's a close one
45:30 - I don't love raising 4th here. You are fairly certain Adamyid will 3! you and are risking an extra bet when we are not very worried about thechips55 catching up to us for the high. I think if we call and keep pot small, we can escape easier on 5th if AdamyId hits a scare card.
As played, on 5th we are now risking 150k to win 170k most of the time. Overall, I think it is close but in general I lean towards a fold; however, I would call down mostly if the pot was bigger on 3rd. 1) If opponent does bet,bet,bet, I don't think we get half the pot over 45% in this situation. Obviously we can lower that 45% equity number because we can scoop and do not necessarily have to risk 3 bets to win 170k a decent % of the time. Thinking about it out loud here, probably pretty close IMO.
Raising 4th street is mandatory because of the pot size. Let's say for some reason nobody completed and it's a 3way pot with only 3 bringins+antes. Then i definately call. But because i 2bet on 3rd street, pot is kind of big now and it's much better for me to force out the 3rd player. Even counting with that fact that Adamyid will 3bet always.
My equity HU is ~45%
My equity 3way will be ~32%
Because of the pot size it's better to put in 2 extra smallbets here with ~45%.
After 5th street it's just a standard calldown. I don't think it's close at all. Pot is bigger because of the 3rd street action and i block an ace. If i don't block an ace or the pot is slightly smaller then it might be closer. But looking at the math with troutulator it's an easy call down.
With the Ace blocker and the bloated size of pot, I do agree with you that it is a standard call down now as played.
I also agree that your equity on 4th HU is ~45% and your equity would be ~32% 3way; however, I am still not 100% convinced that putting in an extra 100k into what will eventually most likely be a 700k pot (in order to increase our own equity by 13%) is definitely correct. For one, there is a small chance that chips55 will call our 4th street raise if he has a stronger high or low hand than he repped by just calling 2bets on 3rd. There is also a small chance he may just muck on 4th anyway if he is a weaker player (which I do not believe to be the case here).
More importantly, knocking him out will increase our playability for the rest of the hand, but if we are trying to increase our equity by 13% here, we also contributing what is most likely 14% (100k/700k) extra into the final size of the pot (I am curious how many more chips you would theoretically be willing to add into the pot in order to knock out chips55's equity). Lastly, if we just call 4th and keep pot smaller, (and assuming chips55 bricks/folds 5th) we can fold and get away from messy situations where we are simply priced into calling down, which, although only based off of my intuition can get very spewy and potentially highly -EV.
Believe! :)
I'am not an expert in math, but i try to break it down for you:
On 3rd street the pot is 187.500.
*A, I just call and let thechips peel cheaply*
My equity is around 33,2-33,6% (depending what thechips have, he has something like
(A2)7, (8c2c)7c, (56)7
So my share of the pot is something like 61.900
B, If i raise, then i force thechips out of the pot (if he still coldcalls it doesn't really matter, because i have almost exactly a breakeven hand here, obviously because of ICM consideration it's not a good situtation for me to jam with 33,3% equity 3way, but i was fairly sure that he will fold, because he also knows that Adamyid will 3bet with his range, and his (thechips) equity on 3rd street is around 24-25%.
If thechips folds then my equity goes up to 46,2%! So i will have 86.625 of the pot (187500*0,462). That's around 25k chips difference (86625-61900), one small bet, which is huge!!! I have to also count with the extra money that i put into the put. Once i raise, i can be sure that Adamyid will 3bet, so i put an extra 50k into the put to gain that extra 25k. But i doesn't lose that, because i have 46,2% equity, so i lose 3800 chips out of that 50k!
So i win 25k by forcing him out, but lose 3800 because of the extra 2 smallbets, but still, it's worth it...I have to raise here always to force thechips out of the pot. If not, then i lose 1smallbets of EV in this pot....This is a common split-pot concept, where despite we have a small equity disadvantage it's still better to raise and force out the third player. If i miss that then it will influence my long-term bb/100 winrate a lot....
This is extremly well explained. I am a big fan of Your videos and hope you will post more. I am analyzing them all for the second time now. You explain very Clear and presice.
Around minute 10, an ace completes first to act and you raise with split kings second to act. It helps that aces are sort of dead. However, this seems pretty loose. It might be fine to play kings against a raise from an ace in steal position, but I don't like playing it against a raiser with some sort of real hand and the whole table left to act.
I completely agree with that. However here BrynKenney opened who was a loose player. I don't really know how he plays exactly in these situation, wether he opens hands like Q2-A 2suits... If the answer is yes then it's fine to play my still kings.
But i agree that it's close and if he opens a reasonable range i should fold this. Against everybody else at this table i would have folded, but i had a note on Bryn that he is capable of stealing too wide, that's why i 2bet.
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