On Overbetting
Posted by Steve Paul
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Great video, really enjoyed topic. Would be good to see a HH review with some overbet spots reviewed. I've been trying to add some more overbets to my game, and similar to what you mentioned towards the end, it feels like opponents struggle to defend properly against them. With that in mind, do you think it's worth adding a heap more bluffs in to our overbet range (if opponents are going to overfold), or exploitatively size down when we could be overbetting so that our value hands get paid? Thanks!
Thanks, and maybe I'll make my next video a look at some overbets I've made/faced.
I tend to avoid trying too hard to exploit with overbluffing or levelling on sizing. My initial response to turn overbets was basically "this guy always has a draw" so I think you'll find people who play badly vs them in a variety of ways and I'm happier just trying to execute a solid strategy.
My takeaway: Your bet sizes will literally (technically) dictate the ranges that your opponent is supposed to have. Manipulate your bet sizes, manipulate Villain's range. Brilliant.
As for the actual topic of the video, I'll put it this way: Thank you, Steve Paul for this video! While I have only played around 120k hands in the last 12 months, out of those hands I have overbet the turn exactly 5 times. After watching this video—as well as double checking my (and your) work with Pio—I now overbet turns 10x more often than my current pool. You rock!
My experience has been very similar, not a play I'd ever considered but after doing a little work and trying to look for spots it comes up a lot!
I do think I was over betting incorrectly. I was looking at high cards more favorable to my range (J32-K boards) if I chose a 1/3 or 1/2 pot cbet size, where any A or K favored my range quite a bit on the turn. I am surprised to see these cards are not actually the best to over bet and you need low brick cards. I am almost positive i've seen other videos over betting quite a few over cards that fall on boards like 873ss-Kx. Even a hand like AQ still gets value from 65s, T9s, J9s, and gets a lot of 7x and 8x to fold with a 1.5x pot.
Not quite sure I agree with this video despite seeing the charts. Will pay more attention to some of the zoom videos I see where they over bet turn when an over card comes and I'll ask what they think in that spot.
The rule that overcards aren't great overbet candidates isn't perfect, there are definitely spots where overbetting them adds EV (eg. K64A). And in the J32K example, overbetting did add some EV, and is chosen by the solver with a reasonable frequency if you allow both options. It just didn't reach my personal threshold, and I'm trying to stick to one turn size so I won't use overbet there yet (as I get better my threshold will move.)
But I think your example misses the point. Some good things happen when you 1.5x pot with AQ there, and some bad things can happen too (a worse hand can raise, you can put in a lot of money with 4-7 outs, etc.) Just because a bet size works well against some parts of opponent's range doesn't make it best.
2nd edit: 1st edit was wrong, here's the right #s
I ran 873r and 873ss flops with half pot cbet and 75/150 on the turn.
For 873r, using the 1.5x sizing on a K turn adds about 5bb/100 of EV compared to the 0.75 size. AQ is a pure check.
For 873ssKx, solver will use a bit of overbetting given both options (30% check, 50% 0.75x pot, 20% 1.5x pot) but it doesn't seem to add any EV. AQ is near pure check but when it bets it prefers overbet to smaller size.
Awesome video, great work!
Suggestion for a follow-up:
Defending against turn overbets in theory and practice. I assume in practice you would have to be a bit tighter defending because people aren't finding some bluff combos and the right frequencies for most of their overbetting range up to mid stakes.
Great work Steve! You are a natural when it comes to breaking down poker concepts in a comprehensive, fun and meaningful way.
Thanks!
Good job on this one. I typically do most overbets on the river due to a lack of understanding on application of doing it in a balanced way.(mostly do it as an exploit against weak players with capped ranges/against regs who I think like to bluff catch) This was def understandable and made a ton of sense in how to apply it more meaningfully. I Really like how you put this into excel and broke it down turn by turn. Good stuff
Good job Steve, love your analysis work - thorough yet easy to digest. Would love to see you do a node locking anal video!
Cheers
What really suprised me was the fact that the BB defend to an overbet with more x/r at least at the 872ss3 board compared to a 75%pot bet. i am curius why that is the case, maybe you can make a video about how do play against overbets. But anyway otherwise a great video that shows me alot to improve on.
If you have made such a video im sorry for the comment, i was of studying for a year or so and be back so i will watch a lot of your content in the next days to weeks.
Over betting I think it is a two part series by Steve. The XR is usually because hero has less pot odds to call, so XR is in order. Also if over bets are polarized, have some decent FE with a small XR, but will face a lot of 3 bets. Just have to be careful how you structure your XR range.
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