Steve Paul Reviews RunItTw1ce Some More
Posted by Steve Paul
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I am at a loss, not sure how to timestamp the videos LOL (got to start utilizing my membership more efficiently)
Steve Paul In the KK hand @ 2:36 in the video, board is QJx rainbow, how often would villain have to bet vs check for you to choose to mix c bet/check? Curious, if you had to put a number to it, what you would think their bet %/check back % is in this spot and what that information would do to your strategy with overpairs in spots like these? Seems we should have all sets, two pair and overpairs, a bunch of strong TPTK and then we are looking for bluffs on this dry board. We have T9s, KTs and that is it for 8 out SD's, then we have AK, K9, AT. Strong checks I can see are AA/QQ/AQ since we block so much of the continue range and are quite invulnerable with the AA. Mostly curious about your approach with the bet%/Check Back % thing.
I would not bother with balancing against a very likely weaker player. If it was a good regular then you should probably do a decent amount of cbetting on this board, though I'll readily admit it's not a spot I know very well.
Here vs likely weaker opponent I think there are more random stabs than super light floats which is what makes me want to check but again not super confident in that read.
As for a bet %, if I knew he'd stab 50% I'd be pretty happy to check range
Yeah, that sounds about right. I have IP checking back 53% and stabbing 47% in a pretty massive sample in H2N. It is strange what the sims do against the Ignition pool's flatting ranges in MP/CO. I will show you the grid, it's quite insane. The grid on the right is the preflop calling range CO vs UTG, about as non-GTO as you can get.
I did a script with a 16% open from UTG vs a range that wide and surprisingly the c bet % in the aggregate was under 34% if I remember correctly. That range is pretty consistent among all calls made by IP players or SB (SB flat ranges are very similar).
CO call vs UTG
Steve Paul @ 4.36 88 hand on AJ7 texture. Since a turned 8 can be deadly against us (T9s) and is relatively the same in pair value vs A/J/TT/99 as something like 55/44/33 is, would the logic of using something like 55/44/33 be superior as a "light" bet on this texture (if we are searching for or even need to search for bluffs in this spot)?
Yes those will be much more likely to be used as "light" cbets because they benefit from folding out some better pairs and the set outs are cleaner.
RunItTw1ce That A5s hand is interesting where you get 4b (I think you jammed it in another but I think the formation was different). I think we talked about this in Discord before right? We know they are tighter than GTO as the SB raiser (pool opens less than 40%, where GTO is higher) and also quite tight with their 4b range. They do, however, never have a fold-less range here (I can see AJ/KJ/AT/AQo even folding if we rip it vs this 4b). So, being that they do fold, having bluffs to go along with value becomes important. I was thinking that just pure 5 bet jamming all combos of A5s (4 combos) and they going with QQ+ (18 combos) and AK (16 combos) puts us in a good spot if he is folding 15%+ of the time. That puts us at 1 bluff per 8.5 value bets (when we simplify 4 bluffs to 34 value jams). Just kind of makes the spot simpler to play.
Also, I can see calling it sometimes (I know charts are likely to 3b it pure) since the pool is RFI'ing from SB substantially tighter to begin with.
If he's only folding 15% of the time to a jam then you should almost certainly only jam value. Don't have exact stacks/sizes in front of me but if it's something like 3->9->24->100 and he folds 15%, then
EV = 0.15 x 33 + 0.85 x {e x 200 - 91} where e is your equity, so breakeven point is about 45.5% vs his calling range
Yeah, that is kind of what I came up with too, but with a strict 5 bet jam range (QQ+, AKs, AKo & A5s) vs his certainly call range (QQ+, AK, AKs) we have the below equity, so since there are some folds, isn't it ever better in our favor?
Range Equities
All we really care about is the equity of each hand, not the range vs range. A5s has 30.1% vs QQ+, AK so if he only folds 15% then the EV of jamming A5s is around -10bb. So don't jam that hand vs that range.
But that range is completely absurd. If SB 4b/calls QQ+/AK and only folds to jam 15% of the time then you can't even profitably jam QQ or AK against a 4bet (if you ignore blocker effects.) QQ+/AK is only 34 combos though so a 15% fold frequency would imply only 6 combos of 4bet/folds which seems unlikely to be right.
Regardless, you need something in the vicinity of 50% folds for the 5b jam with A5s to be good.
Just to chime in I would give the pool maybe 15% of AQo AJo ATo KQo KJo AQs AJs A10s KQs KJs K10s A5s A4s A3s each of these combos that will 4 bet and then fold to 5 bet jam. Then I would estimate Pool is going to 4bet JJ about 50% of the time, QQ 75% of the time, and AK 75% of the time as well. Which I don't think pool is going to fold JJ+ AK very often. I have seen them fold JJ quite a few times, but I don't think it's more than 10% where they fold to 4bet. I am not sure how many combos this works out to, but this would be the 4 bet range I would assign them and then try and figure out my fold equity from there when I jam A5s. Then take the FE + Equity when called and figure out if A5s is indeed profitable or not as a 5 bet jam. This particular hand SB vs BTN 4 bet I don't personally like because it was on 50NL and not on 200NL.
Off suite combos is 1.8 each and 0.6 combos of the suited hands I listed. You get 9 combos that are folding for off suite hands. 5.4 combos that are folding for suited hands, so total of 14.4 combos that are 4 bet + folding to 5 bet jam. Not counting our blocker with A5s. Then for value they have JJ (3), QQ (4.5), KK (6), AA (6), AK (12) based on my estimation. so have 31.5 value combos that 4bet and call off, then 14.4 bluff combos that 4 bet + fold. If there 4 bet range is 45.9 combos and then they are only folding 31.3% of the time vs a 5 bet jam. I am not a math guy, but maybe since A5s will have 30% equity against a JJ+ AK region where (AK and JJ are partial).
Steve Paul
Given my above #s with 30% equity and 31% FE. How bad is the A5s jam? It would be a 2.5 bb open, 11bb SB 3bet and a 24bb 4bet.
EV = 0.31 x (30?) + 0.79 x {E x 200 - 89} ? Trying to replicate the formula you posted. Not sure if I got it right or not.
EV = 0.31 x 35 + 0.69 x (0.3 x 200 - 89)
35 is the amount you win when he folds (so your 3bet + his 4bet). Looks like I had some calculator trouble the first time around - with 15% fold equity it should have been -20bb ish. Here it's -9bb.
3:40 J9o BvB (missed cbet) Solver is betting 75-80% of the time on T42r. [spoiler: Villain AQo]
4:00 with T7o BvB wizard is pure folding on Q64r. I see a fraction of Tx9c defending which is a double backdoor straight draw. Defending the 9c unblocking bdfd? Not sure of the relevance of the 9c? I will note on wizard I used 3x open (only option) and 67% cbet instead of the 50% we saw used in game [spoiler: sb had Q9o]. I am a little surprised even T9o is defending so little in this spot.
5:11 88 on AJ7r MP vs SB. I am mostly cbetting range here even though SB has a very broadway dense range for flatting. I was thinking I have the bdsd if I catch a T-9 run out. Wizard is only cbetting 60% of it's range here. Which makes sense given the flatting range. [spoiler: SB had KTo]
7:00 With T9o Co vs BB on 963ss-4s-Ax you were spot on that the overbet is pretty suspect. That is the main reason why I called, I didn't snap call, but I thought if he did have AsTx type hand he would bet the flop more often as the pool is pretty linear, so betting with back door nut flush draw more likely to hit the ace. If he did check back AsX then I don't think one pair hands want to use overbet sizing too often on that river. Also being it's an overbet repping a polar range, so I think he would bet the flop majority of the time with a flush draw. I'm sure there was something more to the hand as well with the timing of which villain called or checked that led me to believe it was a bluff. I do think Half pot or 2/3 pot is far more scary and more value oriented in the pool on this run out. You were spot on with overbet being main reason I called here.
10:00 with A5c on Qs-Qh-3c typically I would defend some heart and club hands that block more of the QX region and has the back door. My thought process was actually some what bad here. I was thinking I want to continue with spades and hearts more often than clubs where ATh > ATc but the inverse I think is true because the ATc blocks more of the AQc QTc region. I saw something in Luke's videos (one of his first videos) where he talks about what suites to continue with and typically the bottom suite you ended up folding more often. I think in general I am over folding to XR though because the pool is very linear and mostly just check raising some Qx and PP here and not many bluffs. I don't really like floating back doors against such a condensed range. If you knew villains range is something like JJ-55 here and some Qx are you still continue A5c / ATc type hands? [Spoiler UTG had TT]
10:00 no you need him to have actual bluffs to want to float those light hands. If it's just Qx and some protection with JJ-55 then I would fold A5s for sure and probably ATs as well though that one will be closer.
11:30 with KdJh on Th7d3c-9d-3s board solver approved and over pairs mostly want to use overbet sizing on the river. However, my suites are bad blocking a lot of back door floats and mostly want spades unblocking all the back doors either KsJx or KxJs to bluff this river with. My exact combo is rarely betting this spot in the solver. [spoiler: villain had JcTc]
12:30 QJc on Q92ss-4x board you are correct again that KQ is the minimum value hand that wants to use overbet sizing. Where QJ mostly checks back or uses 3/4 sizing. A bit of an over play by me here because turn was a brick and unblocking spades. But the J blocks some of the straight draws as well, so don't want to use overbet with this hand too often. [Spoiler: SB had AhJh]
13:48 AQ BB vs CO on AQ2Jcc I will check this spot some times and mix in XR or XC. [Spoiler: CO had 55] Seems like a bad float?
19:15 AcQh on the J97ccc-Ad-2c board the 1/3 is a leak by me on the river. I talked to Luke about this in one of his recent videos in the comments where 2/3 sizing on these 4 flush boards is the most common sizing and 1/3 just leaves too much value on the table. [Spoiler: Villain TcTh]
20:53 AQc on AJ6ss-Kdd-3s board [Spoiler: BB 9s5s]
23:00 JJ on Q9489 [spoiler: AdQd]
24:35 TT UTG vs CO given the 100bb stack I assume it's a regular using the 8bb sizing and playing 3 bet or fold from CO & MP, so went with the 4 bet. Wizard is 4 betting TT here about 20% of the time and I'm sure I RNG for sub 25. Typically in this spot QQ-TT I will only 4 bet about 25% of the time and flat 75%. Same for my other AQs-A10s, AQo, KQs-K10s I am 4 betting all of these about 25% and mixing flat or fold the other 75% depending on the hand. Against a jam I'm only calling QQ about 2/3 of the time I think. Folding the JJ/TT and AKo region pretty high frequency given my position and 4bet range vs what I think the pool 5 bet jams with. [Spoiler: CO 99]
25:42 KJo SB vs BTN 2bb raise and 4 bets all in for 150bb! This hand is kind of funny because villain only had AQd here. I remember he snap 4bet jammed as well. I am kind of curious if I would even call AK vs this sizing? What is the bottom of the calling range sb vs BB for 150bb? I am thinking just QQ+ AKs? Wizard is calling 99+ AQs+ AKo at 100bb vs a 4 bet jam. I don't think I am calling 99 or AQs even at 100bb vs a 4bet jam. Not against this pool at least. Mostly just TT+ AK as my default for this formation.
27:00 ATo UTG vs BTN on the 872-3-A board I checked because I was unblocking all the KQ-KJ, QJ, type hands that should bluff at some frequency? It's my worse ace from utg besides AXs hands but felt AQ AJ still in btn's range, but way more bluffs in his range which is why I went for the triple check here. [Spoiler: KcJc] You can start to see a pattern of how little pool is actually 3 betting with some of these spoilers.
29:00 with AcKh on the 855ssc-Tc-2c board for the reasons you stated unblocking spades and blocking clubs vs the half pot I elected to call, but I do agree vs the 3.5x RFI it is close. One of the other main reasons I called was because MP started the hand with 90bb and opened 3.5x so thought it was a weaker player. You do see a ton of middle pairs open this sizing that are just trying to win the blinds preflop. Really close fold / call river spot. Also on the flop typically I am using half pot cbets on T-high and lower boards for 3BP OOP. I think solver is mostly using half pot with range as well. Wizard is using a 54% sizing with 70% of it's range, everything mixing. Wizard is pure calling river with AcKx here and almost pure calling AxKc as well except with the ace of spades... I don't think pure call is great in practice though.
32:00 with KdQd on the QT7-8hh board in game I remember thinking for a bit and deciding if I want to check back or not, but I thought the 8 brought in enough hands like 99 and AJ for OE or double gutters that made me want to bet. When you mention KJs wants to check back and J10s wants to bet I think that is because it wants to unblock AK, which is why I was reluctant to bet KQ because I do block some AK combos and also block some back door diamond combos that bet the flop. I would much rather have a hand like QsJs to bet this turn over KdQd. I think we are on the same page here. [spoiler: Villain had AK]
32:40 A5d BB vs SB 4bet. This hand was at 50NL and typically it's the regs using this 25bb sizing and it's so value heavy at 50NL zone compared to 200NL zone. I am more likely to call / jam this hand at 200NL than at 50NL. A bit of a nitty fold though. [spoiler SB AKo]
40:00 with KJo BTN vs CO it is a low frequency 3bet for me. On the T98hh-5x-Ax board I am mostly checking back flop, but given I had the Jh in my hand I elected to bet. Then blocking bluffs on the turn I don't think I want to raise. Then On the river I figure I have enough AQ AJ in my range and these hands don't want to use a large sizing on this texture (I don't think) so went with the half pot sizing. [Spoiler: Co QdTd] My only bluffs are going to come from KQ and KJ I think here.
41:00 with QT on Q7293 The turn was likely something with the timing of the flop call made me think he had a flush draw or some type of ace high with bdfd that floated, so just went with the barrel. It was 50NL so weaker players in this pool and I have been getting floated by some crazy hands recently that don't make a lot of sense, so started to be a bit more mergy on turns with my value bets. Where in the past I would only bet KQ+ or TPGK+ and bluffs on the turn and polarize my range, where now I am mixing my sizings and betting some TPWK in these softer pools. Also the fact when you do check back the turn, people are not bluffing the river enough and just realizing their equity. I think if they would stab the river more often, I would be more willing to check back some TPWK on turns. So multiple factors for me not betting PIO esk range on these turns. Like to hear your thoughts on this as well. [Spoiler: SB JTo] Just to further illustrate how bad this pool plays.
43:15 seems to be an editing issue, but CO did not fold this hand. Co called and I folded, screen shot below. River bricks and SB XF here.
48:00 with QJc on Q528A board I felt uncomfortable bluff catching this river, so I thought I could block bet to get value from JJ-99 region and set my own price vs AX as you saw in the sim AK/AJ hands are not raising very often. I think more of a mental leak than actual strategical play by me though. [spoiler: BTN TT]
50:07 was 200NL with AdKh. I honestly had no idea what to do vs a 10x open. I know AKo 4bet jams some times and given the sizing just felt like Jam was easiest option. [Spoiler: UTG K5d]
Really enjoyed the format and the pace, usually I tend to get bored quite fast watching Hand reviews, but that was not the case this time.
Probably one of the first videos Im watching from you, I actually love your smooth voice, sounds really relaxing and positive. :)
Thumbs up, looking forward for more to come, thanks!
I think the one thing that could of been improved is filtering out some of the basic preflop stuff where I just win the blinds. Just focus in 3BP, 4BP, and hands where we saw the flop. Would of probably been able to cut it down to 25 hands or so. Maybe I'll do another review in 1-2 months after I make some adjustments and improve a bit more. Need to work on my turn strategy quite a bit and pulling the trigger more often on some river bluffs. I agree though Steve did a great job on this series and didn't find any mistakes with his analysis.
72Just4U Thanks, I've always hated the sound of my voice so appreciate the compliment!
Haha, its probably the same for everyone, because were not used to it. :D
But don't worry your voice is awesome. :)
Steve Paul
Ah, ok might be an option, but for me it was fine as I said, even the standard preflop spots sometimes are nice to be remembered. Thanks!
RunItTw1ce
what beta ass site is this where nobody 3bets you preflop? out of all the hands shown in the video how many faced 3bets? <5%?
If you tell me how to filter it I will look. In general though vs UTG RFI pool 3bets about 5%, vs MP 3bets about 6% vs Co 3bet around 8% vs BTN 3bet around 11%. Not personally but pool stats that I have seen. Ton of cold calling going on because people want to play bingo and get money in with a made hand. Watch some Tariq or Tyler videos and you will see how the pool plays.
I compared my sample on Bodog to my sample at 200 zoom on PS and I get 3bet a bit less when I open from HJ/CO on Bodog but otherwise numbers are very similar. Sample on Bodog is much smaller than on PS so could be sample size issues
Steve Paul ya those were just numbers off top of my head. I don't remember the exact numbers as I didn't go back and check the stats I've seen or run a report myself. I just know they were some where around there, so if I'm off 1-2% it's probably me just not remembering correctly.
Steve Paul and RunItTw1ce below are the numbers for the Ignition Pools.
From the % standpoint, they are 3 betting the best spots (BTN vs CO, SB/BB vs BTN and BB vs SB) somewhere between 66 to 75% as often as they should. Where GTO BB vs SB, you will see some ranges in the high teens, where the pool is under 10%. The caveat to this is that the pool is raising 1st in substantially less than a GTO type range would.
CO RFI is like 26-27%, BTN RFI is like 36 to 38% and SB RFI is pretty bad at 32-34%. These are all about 5 to 8% tighter than GTO ranges. Does it matter that much? I don't know. It only really matters vs regs since they are the ones that will have the highest quality range construction (fish will be too tight, volatiles will be too wide and regs will have ranges that make sense).
Face 3b and Steal %'s
Considering the standard opening size is 3x, opening that much on the button seems okay to me. If you are wanting to open 40%+ on the button then your sizing should be closer to min or 2.5. But population seems to default to 3x without knowing what hands can hand handle that sizing.
Opening cutoff for that wide and that much seems too loose though. If someone is opening 25%+ in the CO for 3x opening, you are going to print EV 3betting them. They are putting in 3bb with hands way too weak for that size like small pairs, Kxs, T7s/Q8s type hands, all of which should raised smaller.
What are the EP and MP RFI? For 3x it should be pretty tight, 13% in EP and 17% in MP max for those sizing's. Wider than that seems pretty exploitable. Feels like population is still playing like 2008 and overvaluing small pocket pairs in EP/MP, so their RFI on those spots are going to be bloated as well.
SB rfi is super troll. Fast fold poker = fast fold sb asap.
These numbers HawksWin are even tighter than what I remember. I don't disagree with them in some of my recent sessions I am seeing more and more cold calls and rarely seeing 3 bets or 4 bets.
GTO Warrior raise size doesn't determine your range. Do you open UTG 3x because you have the tightest range and 2.5x MP and 2.25x Co and 2x button because your range gets wider and wider by position or is it the opposite in theory? Answer is it's opposite! In theory you open bigger on the button with the widest range because you have positional advantage and open smaller UTG even though your range is tighter because you will be OOP so often and can't defend to 3 bets. In general you take your opening range and you fold 55-60% of it vs a 3 bet. The 13% and 17% you list is just way too tight for six max. Just because hands like T7s can't defend vs 3 bet, most of the time you will see BTN fold, sb fold, and now BB calls with a wide range, so you end up with CO vs BTN in a SRP with T7s where you have position. That is not a bad spot. In general you will be closer to 18% UTG, 22% MP, 27% CO, 43% btn, and 45% SB. If the pool is under 3 betting playing a 3x open and increasing the pot size while you have position is to your advantage! If the pool under 3 bets it makes sense to bloat the pot size IP. And not open min because you are scared of 3 bets.
RunItTw1ce I don't have any sims or anything to back it up, but it certainly seems logical that the bigger you open from a given position the tighter the opening range. So if you open 18% UTG for 2.5x and one day decide you're going to open 3x you should probably be opening tighter than 18%. Maybe 13% is too far, that's for the computers to figure out.
Steve Paul in theory opening 3x will be tighter range, but that is under the assumptions people are going to be 3 betting enough. When people are still only 3 betting vs UTG 5-7% of the time instead of 9% and BB is still defending hands like T8o or 95s then I see no reason not to keep the same 18% range. Personally I am still going 2.5 because something Gary teaches in his videos you want to keep similar sizes as you move up in stakes so you are comfortable with different SPRs and not just max exploiting your current stake.
One other thing I will note about 2.5x or 3x sizes is it is common size on the site because people just click 3x button or they click pot + back arrow to get to 2.5x unless they have a hot key program that does it for them. I know in theory 2.0 - 2.25 is going to be the more theoretical sizing, but the reason I do not use it because it makes you stand out as a regular, which is terrible for anonymous pool. If I was on stars I would most likely be using 2.2x. I am just trying to blend into the pool.
GTO Warrior
In the below hyperlink, you will find the RFI, Call Open and fold to 3b stats for the Ignition pool. Hand2Note stopped working on my laptop about 6 months ago and is not working properly on the laptop either but I do have screenshots for before the problem happened. I am away from my desktop which is where all of the hands are stored and the database is utilized the most.
The important thing to note is that these numbers don't differ all that much across all of the sites. What makes the other sites harder to study is that you can't have 100% clairvoyance (see all hole cards) of the environment. We have to rely on showdown friendly spots or our opponent flashing after a big bluff. This is why we have to get away from doing countless vacuum spots and move towards knowing they fold 43%/raise 10%/call 47% in a spot and sizing our bets/constructing our range the proper away. People taking advantage of Ignition's clairvoyance will know how often they are slowplaying when they call the flop bet, we will know what the raise range is, we will know if they are folding 2nd and 3rd pair and A high consistently.
The numbers I show above describe the overall strategy of IP vs a OOP C bet in a single raised pot. These are some of the hardest spots in poker to break bad habits in. So, think BTN call vs MP open. Think back to how often we bet flop and check/fold turn. How often we double barrel and check/fold river. How often we x/c flop x/c turn and x/f river. This all happens simply by c betting too often OOP.
Here are the numbers
RFI/Fold to 3b/Cold Call
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