In the KK5dd hand when we have QJo no diamond you think that a 55% cbet is +EV. Can you please elaborate/break down this spot? Intuitively, I can't see this cbet being +EV.
My thoughts:
-His range is something like: 22-JJ(d), a8s-aqs(d), Ato-aqo(d), tjs,tqs,kts,qjs,kqo,kjs,kqs
-Hes going to be folding something like 5-15% of his range.
-We have ~20% equity versus his continuing range.
-We have poor playability and visibility-- Do we barrel a A OOP? It hits his range almost as hard as ours.
Hey imawhale, thanks for the question.
I did some analysis of this hand and I have a pretty similar range for him as you, though I also included T9s and 98s and a discounted JJ+ and AK. I had him continuing vs the bet with 66+, all AJ high and better, all Ax with a bdnfd and all fd's. The remaining suited connectors and A8s-AT without a bdfd that he is folding makes up 34% of his total range and combined with having some equity vs his continuing range and I think some profitable barrel spots we do just about well enough to cbet. That said its definitely very marginal and if you disagree with some of these assumptions I can see a strong argument for not making it.
Agree with the above. Don't think cbetting this board is going to show an immediate profit.
Also, found it somewhat laughable that you made your decision with the AQhh hand by looking at a tournament clock?! I understand that you think it's close to 50% calling over folding wih specifically AQ but surely you could go more in depth on his range vs yours and work out the exact answer rather than guessing.
Apart from that, enjoyed the video and it's nice to see this format!
Hi helpmeimprove, glad you liked the format.
I don't think you understood my approach or reasons for my approach to the AQ call. It's not that I think that it is close between calling and folding so I just flip a coin to decide. This exact spot is one that will occur very rarely and different players will have radically different strategies. Some players will literally never bluff with a weird line like that and others will never be slow playing on the turn and so will always be bluffing, others will be trying to play the spot in a balanced fashion and have both bluffs and value bets. When I am unsure of my opponents strategy, and especially if he is a strong and capable player, I think the best I can do is to make sure he doesn't have a profitable bluff with all his air by ensuring I call frequently enough with my total range. Hopefully you can follow my analysis in the video that came to the conclusion that I need to be calling with a 50% frequency with AQ. Going into more depth on his range and "working out the exact answer" as you suggest will lead to me deciding to either call every bluffcatcher or fold every bluffcatcher and I actually see this approach much more as "guessing" since I have no way of knowing how my opponent is going to play this spot.
very well said stephen. i have an issue a lot in live tournaments versus bet/check/bet due to vast differences in styles you see and its hard to get a sample large enough to know which style they fall into.
and to elaborate on what you said, and correct me if im wrong, but the reason you flipped the coin (which you didnt directly say), is to randomize yourself calling 50% of the time with AQ. You pinpointed u need to call half the time and bc ur human and not a robot, u wanna randomize it the best you can without emotion. Rather then trying to recollect what u did last time and the time b4 and the time b4, u just do an unbiased test like looking at tourney clock to ensure on average you call 50%
Great video. Btw u have a sick live presence, i saw you at the PCA. do videos based on live hands if possible. they are fun!
-in the first hand, isn't his best bluff T9 (if he gets there this way) because it blocks you from having AT which is a snap call? also, for you on the river, isn't A7s better then AQhh because AQhh blocks him having KQhh QJhh QThh as bluffs, all of which plausibly get here this way as they might c/r flop and not barrel turn when they fail to pick up equity? i think having the Qh blocks a pretty decent amt of bluffs because all his QJcc KQcc hands barrel on the turn club. yet the give ups are hands like QJhh KQhh. so some of the only bluffs that get here are hands with the Qh or Qs.
not sure how great his play is tho, ace high boards are pretty good for ur 3b range there and idk what hands really bet fold? i guess some t9s Jts type stuff but id expect u to check back QQ/KK.
-on the last hand, why are you so convinced he has 99-JJ a lot? he flatted pre at 40bb bb v btn
Hey Fivebetbluff, glad you enjoyed it...I have fun making this kind of video too.
Everything you say about the first hand is correct, though he will have T9 quite rarely and similarly I won't have A7s type hands very often since I am not always 3betting them and I only ever have the suited versions which are a lot less common. Apart from those hands everything else in my range is going to have a blocker to his broadway suited backdoor draws so they are all pretty equivalent.
Regarding the last hand I'm not convinced he has 99-JJ a lot...I was just saying they are the most likely value x/r hands that I am still ahead of. I actually think these hands are overall quite unlikely hence my confidence in the line I took.
I agree with imawhale on the above comment, I don't think your initial c-bet is actually profitable. I think if you are going to start betting a hand like QJo on that flop you would want at least a diamond in your hand as you are going to be 1 and done way too much here on this board unless you are regularly incorporating plays like you did in this particular spot which I think is very rare and only with circumstances that really make sense like it did in this spot vs his perceived range for his small turn bet sizing and your info on him.
On the AQs hand I liked your reasoning from a game theory perspective not having much history with this particular player. If you did think he would c/r his backdoor straight/flush draws though in this spot I think you have a very easy river call vs his range which would include sets and AK, since he probably barrels his 79 (which doubt he calls a 3-bet with) I don't think we have to worry about a straight being in his range either by that river and he probably doesn't have any clubs either that isn't specifically AKcc. If we give villian a range of 88,66,AKo,AKs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s for c/r the flop with only backdoor flush draws for his broadway hands then we can never be folding any A on this river vs him as played. Our hand actually has better equity vs his range when we hold weaker aces since we don't block his broadway flush draw c/r range. He would actually be needing to bet over pot vs us here for us to ever fold vs that range.
I thought I was making the same assumptions as you that he could be turning a certain range he played that way into a bluff. If he wasn't bluffing there ever we could never call as his value range in that spot crushes us. Are we debating whether he turns his Tx into bluffs or are we just assuming on your end that he sometimes bluffs there and sometimes doesn't using a mixed strategy that maybe makes you indifferent to calling his river bet by having less bluff combos then value combos with his sizing?
If he bluffs with his entire range he c/r the flop with we always have to call there obviously based on the combo of hands he can have. What are your assumptions in this spot?
Quick Edit: Looked at this again, if he value bets 88,66, and AKo, AKs he has 14 value combos and if he doesn't bluff his Tx he has 6 bluff combos with KQs, KJs, and QJs which means he would only be bluffing 30% of the time in this spot and does make this hand extremely tough IF he plays his value combos like this the vast majority of the time.
Yes you are correct that if he is bluffing all the air he gets there with he would need to be betting quite big for us to fold any bluffcatchers. The problem is that it is a very unusual line both for value and therefore as a bluff so we have to discount both quite significantly, it is not enough to simply count combos of possible hands he could have and compare to the pot odds. How much exactly we should be discounting each hand is a question only Ole can answer. Honestly I am unsure what approach he would take to this spot vs me as it is quite a rare situation so I guess instead of theorising what he does and doesn't bluff I prefer to call enough of my range to make sure I am not being exploited, assuming he probably has some bluffs and some value.
Yeah I guess my hand is tied for worst with all other Ax with kickers that aren't diamonds so maybe taking this concept further I should call all those hands always along with the AK/AT and hands like mine some smaller fraction of the time. Glad you liked the video
Thanks Stephen, another great video, and personally I love this in depth analysis format, but naturally being a live player, I am biased in this regard. I really like the creative lines, and I wonder, do you find playing live to you create more of these non-standard approaches to different spots than multi-tabling 20 tourneys or whatever? Would this be one of the appeals of live tournaments versus online for you? I am also curious as to what you feel the maximal number of tournaments is that you can play online without diminishing the skill advantage you clearly possess? I love all your videos. Loved the 2-7 stuff, and if you ever feel yearning to do some other mixed game videos, I'd be all over it. Cheers, Jeff.
Hey Jeffrey, thanks for the kind words. I definitely find playing live gives greater opportunity for non-standard lines since you can think so deeply about every spot and you also have much more info available. I do love this aspect of live tournaments and I frequently find myself having ideas about how to play a spot live and then taking the strategy online to test it out over a lot of hands. I think every extra table I play online diminishes my skill advantage and typically even when I am playing one I am not as focused as I would be live as I am usually looking for more games or am otherwise distracted.
last hand seems like clicking buttons to me.. if you have him on a reasonable range that takes his line. i think you only fold out AQ/AJdd or some other suited diamonds.. dont think he betcalls turn with midpairs and i dont think he folds Kx otr. plus it looks like a weird line to take for value since without playerinfo i would expect turn to go check check alot
I'm not trying to get a king to fold though KJ is a bluffcatcher. With different assumptions about his turn betting range its not good but in my experience midpairs get protection bet on this turn a lot, especially given the sizing.
The last hand is a great check/call. I realize that 99-jj makes up a lot of his range in many circumstances but I'm curious why you seem to subtract out qq-aa in this spot. It would seem to me that given bbvbt with 40 bb and given your later reads about villain slow playing deeper in the hand that qq-aa would be a plausible explanation for how the hand played out. I'm curious bc if you add those combos in, does it change your river play analysis? I'm a cash player and looking to get better at tourneys and I feel like I've been in that spot a few times and have made the wrong decision every time. That includes the times where he shows up with a lesser hand and I've felt like I lost value while trying to ferret out a cooler (as was the case with your hand)
Thank you for the vid. Excellent analysis throughout.
Hey icufishmg, thanks for the comments.
I essentially think that the higher the pair, the less likely he is to slow play it preflop since there are a lot of strong hands that he will just cooler pre at this stack depth. Certainly the more of these combos we put in his range, the more attractive raising river/betting turn is but I think they can be discounted pretty heavily in this spot. You also have to consider how likely he is to actually call a raise with one of these hands since we make the exact same money calling or raising vs anything that is bet/folding. Add to that the ICM considerations and I tend to favour the lower variance route in a spot like this. Again if you are against weaker opponents who are more likely to station vs a raise or who you have different assumptions about its easy for the scales to tip in the other direction. Poker is difficult ;)
I dont really like his check with J8 on turn, since you should often have hands that could call on that board when u called his raise on flop, but rarely wanna bet turn. lol I dont explain it really well but what do you think about that check?
Obviously given how I played the hand I had his play isn't the best. Presumably he had different assumptions about how I would play my worse value or how many 7x/6x floats I had.
Hey Stephen, I really enjoy your videos. When it comes to reviewing hands you explain your thought process clearly and efficiently. Much appreciated that you make these.
As for future content you are planning, I would be one to vote for a Step 6 video. I'm sure there are more who would be interested as well? (Don't be afraid to speak up guys!)
Isnt oles bluff in the first hand pretty bad?! As you said you clearly have an ace and to check the turn and to bet the river relativ small and hope that someone folds there an ace (pretty dry board) seems very optimistic. And someone like ole would always keep betting with a set and certainly with A8/A6. So he represents a super narrow range.. I actually think most of the time he would only call with AK on the flop when he only calls your 3bet preflop.
Only reason why i might give him credit is because i wouldnt exspect him to take such a fishy line as a bluff. Do you think that might have been a reason for him to take the line because it seems so redicoulus to bluff there with that line?
Would like to know what you think about his bluff/line?!
lol at the gto and random number stuff with the AQ hand. The guy c/rs the 3-bettor in on a dry ace high flop, then checks the turn and bets the river. From a game theory point of view, he probably gets everything worse than TPGK to fold. No way I would fold AQ to that line.
I mean in the AQo hand, if the opponent really was beating AQ on the A-high flop, why wouldn't he c/c and get you to barrel after 3-betting. If he did c/r, why wouldn't he bet the turn and river and try to get as much in as possible. His line doesn't make a lot of sense. He isn't really trying to get you to fold a big ace on the river. He is trying to get you to fold a pair of face cards or a weak ace you 3-bet light with. His line doesn't make a lot of sense, but works enough because you will represent on the A-high board after 3-betting, but usually don't really have AA/AK/AQ. You spend 5 minutes going into all this GTO stuff about whether to call when it is obvious that your opponent is usually bluffing.
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very good content! i'd still like you to finish your other series ;)
In the KK5dd hand when we have QJo no diamond you think that a 55% cbet is +EV. Can you please elaborate/break down this spot? Intuitively, I can't see this cbet being +EV.
My thoughts:
-His range is something like: 22-JJ(d), a8s-aqs(d), Ato-aqo(d), tjs,tqs,kts,qjs,kqo,kjs,kqs
-Hes going to be folding something like 5-15% of his range.
-We have ~20% equity versus his continuing range.
-We have poor playability and visibility-- Do we barrel a A OOP? It hits his range almost as hard as ours.
Hey imawhale, thanks for the question.
I did some analysis of this hand and I have a pretty similar range for him as you, though I also included T9s and 98s and a discounted JJ+ and AK. I had him continuing vs the bet with 66+, all AJ high and better, all Ax with a bdnfd and all fd's. The remaining suited connectors and A8s-AT without a bdfd that he is folding makes up 34% of his total range and combined with having some equity vs his continuing range and I think some profitable barrel spots we do just about well enough to cbet. That said its definitely very marginal and if you disagree with some of these assumptions I can see a strong argument for not making it.
Agree with the above. Don't think cbetting this board is going to show an immediate profit.
Also, found it somewhat laughable that you made your decision with the AQhh hand by looking at a tournament clock?! I understand that you think it's close to 50% calling over folding wih specifically AQ but surely you could go more in depth on his range vs yours and work out the exact answer rather than guessing.
Apart from that, enjoyed the video and it's nice to see this format!
Hi helpmeimprove, glad you liked the format.
I don't think you understood my approach or reasons for my approach to the AQ call. It's not that I think that it is close between calling and folding so I just flip a coin to decide. This exact spot is one that will occur very rarely and different players will have radically different strategies. Some players will literally never bluff with a weird line like that and others will never be slow playing on the turn and so will always be bluffing, others will be trying to play the spot in a balanced fashion and have both bluffs and value bets. When I am unsure of my opponents strategy, and especially if he is a strong and capable player, I think the best I can do is to make sure he doesn't have a profitable bluff with all his air by ensuring I call frequently enough with my total range. Hopefully you can follow my analysis in the video that came to the conclusion that I need to be calling with a 50% frequency with AQ. Going into more depth on his range and "working out the exact answer" as you suggest will lead to me deciding to either call every bluffcatcher or fold every bluffcatcher and I actually see this approach much more as "guessing" since I have no way of knowing how my opponent is going to play this spot.
very well said stephen. i have an issue a lot in live tournaments versus bet/check/bet due to vast differences in styles you see and its hard to get a sample large enough to know which style they fall into.
and to elaborate on what you said, and correct me if im wrong, but the reason you flipped the coin (which you didnt directly say), is to randomize yourself calling 50% of the time with AQ. You pinpointed u need to call half the time and bc ur human and not a robot, u wanna randomize it the best you can without emotion. Rather then trying to recollect what u did last time and the time b4 and the time b4, u just do an unbiased test like looking at tourney clock to ensure on average you call 50%
Exactly! Humans are very bad random number generators. The clock method is also nice when its not an easy fraction like 1/2.
nice video. would like to see the rest of the live session, too. :)
Great video. Btw u have a sick live presence, i saw you at the PCA. do videos based on live hands if possible. they are fun!
-in the first hand, isn't his best bluff T9 (if he gets there this way) because it blocks you from having AT which is a snap call? also, for you on the river, isn't A7s better then AQhh because AQhh blocks him having KQhh QJhh QThh as bluffs, all of which plausibly get here this way as they might c/r flop and not barrel turn when they fail to pick up equity? i think having the Qh blocks a pretty decent amt of bluffs because all his QJcc KQcc hands barrel on the turn club. yet the give ups are hands like QJhh KQhh. so some of the only bluffs that get here are hands with the Qh or Qs.
not sure how great his play is tho, ace high boards are pretty good for ur 3b range there and idk what hands really bet fold? i guess some t9s Jts type stuff but id expect u to check back QQ/KK.
-on the last hand, why are you so convinced he has 99-JJ a lot? he flatted pre at 40bb bb v btn
Hey Fivebetbluff, glad you enjoyed it...I have fun making this kind of video too.
Everything you say about the first hand is correct, though he will have T9 quite rarely and similarly I won't have A7s type hands very often since I am not always 3betting them and I only ever have the suited versions which are a lot less common. Apart from those hands everything else in my range is going to have a blocker to his broadway suited backdoor draws so they are all pretty equivalent.
Regarding the last hand I'm not convinced he has 99-JJ a lot...I was just saying they are the most likely value x/r hands that I am still ahead of. I actually think these hands are overall quite unlikely hence my confidence in the line I took.
One of your best Stephen. Really enjoy this reg vs reg format as you did on the turn/river MTT play.
Thank you.
agreed
I agree with imawhale on the above comment, I don't think your initial c-bet is actually profitable. I think if you are going to start betting a hand like QJo on that flop you would want at least a diamond in your hand as you are going to be 1 and done way too much here on this board unless you are regularly incorporating plays like you did in this particular spot which I think is very rare and only with circumstances that really make sense like it did in this spot vs his perceived range for his small turn bet sizing and your info on him.
On the AQs hand I liked your reasoning from a game theory perspective not having much history with this particular player. If you did think he would c/r his backdoor straight/flush draws though in this spot I think you have a very easy river call vs his range which would include sets and AK, since he probably barrels his 79 (which doubt he calls a 3-bet with) I don't think we have to worry about a straight being in his range either by that river and he probably doesn't have any clubs either that isn't specifically AKcc. If we give villian a range of 88,66,AKo,AKs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s for c/r the flop with only backdoor flush draws for his broadway hands then we can never be folding any A on this river vs him as played. Our hand actually has better equity vs his range when we hold weaker aces since we don't block his broadway flush draw c/r range. He would actually be needing to bet over pot vs us here for us to ever fold vs that range.
bcrungood,
You seem to be assuming villain has to bet the entire range he gets to river with, why do you think this?
Hey Stephen,
I thought I was making the same assumptions as you that he could be turning a certain range he played that way into a bluff. If he wasn't bluffing there ever we could never call as his value range in that spot crushes us. Are we debating whether he turns his Tx into bluffs or are we just assuming on your end that he sometimes bluffs there and sometimes doesn't using a mixed strategy that maybe makes you indifferent to calling his river bet by having less bluff combos then value combos with his sizing?
If he bluffs with his entire range he c/r the flop with we always have to call there obviously based on the combo of hands he can have. What are your assumptions in this spot?
Quick Edit: Looked at this again, if he value bets 88,66, and AKo, AKs he has 14 value combos and if he doesn't bluff his Tx he has 6 bluff combos with KQs, KJs, and QJs which means he would only be bluffing 30% of the time in this spot and does make this hand extremely tough IF he plays his value combos like this the vast majority of the time.
Yes you are correct that if he is bluffing all the air he gets there with he would need to be betting quite big for us to fold any bluffcatchers. The problem is that it is a very unusual line both for value and therefore as a bluff so we have to discount both quite significantly, it is not enough to simply count combos of possible hands he could have and compare to the pot odds. How much exactly we should be discounting each hand is a question only Ole can answer. Honestly I am unsure what approach he would take to this spot vs me as it is quite a rare situation so I guess instead of theorising what he does and doesn't bluff I prefer to call enough of my range to make sure I am not being exploited, assuming he probably has some bluffs and some value.
In that case AQ would be one of your worst bluff catchers to call with because it blocks additional combos that he can add to his bluffing range.
Very interesting hand, very tough spot. Great video with lots to talk about. Do more of these please.
Yeah I guess my hand is tied for worst with all other Ax with kickers that aren't diamonds so maybe taking this concept further I should call all those hands always along with the AK/AT and hands like mine some smaller fraction of the time. Glad you liked the video
Thanks Stephen, another great video, and personally I love this in depth analysis format, but naturally being a live player, I am biased in this regard. I really like the creative lines, and I wonder, do you find playing live to you create more of these non-standard approaches to different spots than multi-tabling 20 tourneys or whatever? Would this be one of the appeals of live tournaments versus online for you? I am also curious as to what you feel the maximal number of tournaments is that you can play online without diminishing the skill advantage you clearly possess? I love all your videos. Loved the 2-7 stuff, and if you ever feel yearning to do some other mixed game videos, I'd be all over it. Cheers, Jeff.
Hey Jeffrey, thanks for the kind words. I definitely find playing live gives greater opportunity for non-standard lines since you can think so deeply about every spot and you also have much more info available. I do love this aspect of live tournaments and I frequently find myself having ideas about how to play a spot live and then taking the strategy online to test it out over a lot of hands. I think every extra table I play online diminishes my skill advantage and typically even when I am playing one I am not as focused as I would be live as I am usually looking for more games or am otherwise distracted.
Last hand was pretty awesome, nice video.
Thanks SPrince!
last hand seems like clicking buttons to me.. if you have him on a reasonable range that takes his line. i think you only fold out AQ/AJdd or some other suited diamonds.. dont think he betcalls turn with midpairs and i dont think he folds Kx otr. plus it looks like a weird line to take for value since without playerinfo i would expect turn to go check check alot
I'm not trying to get a king to fold though KJ is a bluffcatcher. With different assumptions about his turn betting range its not good but in my experience midpairs get protection bet on this turn a lot, especially given the sizing.
great spots you picked to review, enjoyed that video nice analysis too
Thanks!
The last hand is a great check/call. I realize that 99-jj makes up a lot of his range in many circumstances but I'm curious why you seem to subtract out qq-aa in this spot. It would seem to me that given bbvbt with 40 bb and given your later reads about villain slow playing deeper in the hand that qq-aa would be a plausible explanation for how the hand played out. I'm curious bc if you add those combos in, does it change your river play analysis? I'm a cash player and looking to get better at tourneys and I feel like I've been in that spot a few times and have made the wrong decision every time. That includes the times where he shows up with a lesser hand and I've felt like I lost value while trying to ferret out a cooler (as was the case with your hand)
Thank you for the vid. Excellent analysis throughout.
Hey icufishmg, thanks for the comments.
I essentially think that the higher the pair, the less likely he is to slow play it preflop since there are a lot of strong hands that he will just cooler pre at this stack depth. Certainly the more of these combos we put in his range, the more attractive raising river/betting turn is but I think they can be discounted pretty heavily in this spot. You also have to consider how likely he is to actually call a raise with one of these hands since we make the exact same money calling or raising vs anything that is bet/folding. Add to that the ICM considerations and I tend to favour the lower variance route in a spot like this. Again if you are against weaker opponents who are more likely to station vs a raise or who you have different assumptions about its easy for the scales to tip in the other direction. Poker is difficult ;)
I dont really like his check with J8 on turn, since you should often have hands that could call on that board when u called his raise on flop, but rarely wanna bet turn. lol I dont explain it really well but what do you think about that check?
Obviously given how I played the hand I had his play isn't the best. Presumably he had different assumptions about how I would play my worse value or how many 7x/6x floats I had.
Hey Stephen, I really enjoy your videos. When it comes to reviewing hands you explain your thought process clearly and efficiently. Much appreciated that you make these.
As for future content you are planning, I would be one to vote for a Step 6 video. I'm sure there are more who would be interested as well? (Don't be afraid to speak up guys!)
Cheers and good luck at the tables.
Thanks Micro2Macro, always nice to hear these types of comments. I'll bear that in mind about the step 6 video.
Gl!
Step 6 video o/
Loved this vid, you built some nice suspense over whether we would get to see Ole's hand :)
Thanks Jen! Glad you liked it, it was a fun one to make =)
Hey Steve, how about shoving river in hand 1? We can rep 97/AA pretty well
Gross. Didn't even think of that
Hey pleno, I like the thought but 79s isn't in my 3b range and AA is tough to rep when he has one and when I don't bet turn.
Last video at 26:50, i assume you're referring to 96, where we'd have a full house vs straight otr?
Any 6x has a straight when we boat up.
Last video at 26:50, i assume you're referring to 96, where we'd have a full house vs straight otr?
Last video at 26:50, i assume you're referring to 96, where we'd have a full house vs straight otr?
Great video Stephen!
yes, quite good :)
Thanks =)
Really liked it... More live hands vs. well known villains please
Great video Stevie, comforting to know that making decisions at the highest level of MTT poker comes down to what second is on the tournament clock :)
Love it!! <3
Isnt oles bluff in the first hand pretty bad?! As you said you clearly have an ace and to check the turn and to bet the river relativ small and hope that someone folds there an ace (pretty dry board) seems very optimistic. And someone like ole would always keep betting with a set and certainly with A8/A6. So he represents a super narrow range.. I actually think most of the time he would only call with AK on the flop when he only calls your 3bet preflop.
Only reason why i might give him credit is because i wouldnt exspect him to take such a fishy line as a bluff. Do you think that might have been a reason for him to take the line because it seems so redicoulus to bluff there with that line?
Would like to know what you think about his bluff/line?!
lol at the gto and random number stuff with the AQ hand. The guy c/rs the 3-bettor in on a dry ace high flop, then checks the turn and bets the river. From a game theory point of view, he probably gets everything worse than TPGK to fold. No way I would fold AQ to that line.
I mean in the AQo hand, if the opponent really was beating AQ on the A-high flop, why wouldn't he c/c and get you to barrel after 3-betting. If he did c/r, why wouldn't he bet the turn and river and try to get as much in as possible. His line doesn't make a lot of sense. He isn't really trying to get you to fold a big ace on the river. He is trying to get you to fold a pair of face cards or a weak ace you 3-bet light with. His line doesn't make a lot of sense, but works enough because you will represent on the A-high board after 3-betting, but usually don't really have AA/AK/AQ. You spend 5 minutes going into all this GTO stuff about whether to call when it is obvious that your opponent is usually bluffing.
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