At around 13:30-14:40 you talk about "bets river" as a statistic. A lot of us who are US players are using DriveHUD and a common stat we use is "River Agg%". How do you view the credibility of stats like Flop agg, river agg, etc? Should these in conjunction with autonotes give one a pretty reliable read a good frequency of the time?

Thanks

@ ~26:15 on table 4, bottom right: Why 3b only 4x vs an opener and caller with AKs? Are you specifically looking to induce call behinds there to an extent while you're in position on the BTN?

Also, what is your strategy in opening 2.6x from late position?

Hey Iain,
Thanks for the video.

You say that 1 of the reasons we should not over adjust based on opponents’ stats and try to exploit them to the maximum is to avoid messing up our own stats and become exploitable ourselves. I have heard other coaches talk about this concept too but I'm not sure I agree with this. In fact, I think having messed up stats that do not actually represent accurately how we play as a default might even be beneficial in many situations if not all, because Regs will see these stats and try to exploit us without knowing they are not accurate and that against them we have different frequencies (assuming the players we are exploiting to the max aren’t going to adjust or they would not have these stats in the first place).

To illustrate my point I am going to assume an extreme scenario. Suppose the player pool consists of 100 players, 90 of them fold from the BB against a SB steal 80%. Against these players we are going to open 100% of our hands, whereas against the 10 players who defend enough and 3bet aggressively, we will open our default range which is way tighter, and defend properly vs. 3bets. We will end up with a very high RFI in the SB and a very high fold to 3bet because we are folding a ton when the tight players 3bet us. So, when the Regs see these numbers, they will defend even wider vs. our opens and 3bet more aggressively trying to exploit us, not knowing that against them we are opening tighter and defending properly against 3bets. Therefore, they will end up defending a weaker range than they should and folding a ton to 4bets which will make us even more money.

This applies to lots of situations.

Not sure if I am missing something. Would love to hear your thoughts about it.

I also noticed you are 3betting larger than standard OOP. Example: 12bb SB vs. EP 2.5bb / 13bb SB vs. EP 2.5bb and Btn call. Any thoughts on this.

Sorry for the long post.
Thanks.

The main thing i think you are missing is that of the 90/100 that overfold the big blind if you are playing any reasonable stakes a good proportion of them will be using a HUD. My point is that if you try to exploit every in an excessive way the people you are exploiting will notice and are more likely to adjust than if you dont go too crazy with it. Example would be if someone folds BB like 65% to a 2.5x open i would imagine at GTO you can open like 75% of hands on the BTN but it isnt going to be long before they notice that on your HUD because its such a big adjustment you are making.

And where is that HUD? I want to download it

thankx