At 31:48, I believe the reason why we want to have Q of spade to be calling and K of spade to be folding is that on the turn, K high flush draws are played as a check by OOP whereas Q high flush draws are kept barreling. Therefore, on the river, most of the flushes that OOP has is Q high flushes, so Q of spades block value. Another thing is that on the turn, Q9o gut shot becomes a pure check with and without a spade. Therefore, with the Q of spade, we are not blocking any bluffs on the river. However, K10 with the K of spades is played as a high frequency barrel with its two pair and gut shot equity, and on the river spade, K10 with the K of spade is played as a shove, so for IP K of spades not only unblocks very little value but also blocks some bluffs.

Im confused by this sim. On the turn it prefers to barrel with T9o without a spade. This seems counter intuitive to me, is there any reason for this? Im guessing it has something to do with the fact that it doesn't like following through (with the flush blocker) on the river when the flush gets there. But I don't understand that either.

Great video Lucas! keep this type of content,much better than live play videos!

Great video. Theory vids with solver sims are always great especially when we see that elite players still aren't perfect and we can all improve.

thanks for this video lucas, keep making this kind of videos (:

The EV is really close on firing T9o on the turn. If Nick feels Negreanu is overfolding even just a few combos it is a profitable bluff.
Your videos are excellent. I like the way you think about poker.