btw, you're talking about "i would've made a boat" etc. a lot and keep re-checking your cards, etc... On FTP, the algorithm for dealing cards is on a constant shuffle, so if you would've played the hand, there would've been a different flop ;) On Stars the board is set, though. Just a sidenote :P
oh and, as all of your videos, this is absolutely superb and i would love to see as much of this as possible. So i absolutely vote for the 10-part-marathon ;) You single-handedly made me a MUCH better MTT-player, love your style. Cheers.
Cool! I have release dates every 2 weeks normally. would you want me to break it up with some diffrent footage in between, or just gun out 10 str8 parts?
Around 10:40 you are discussing the different lines you could take on this turn card vs his range. I think on this turn card, when you bet, your range is heavily weighted towards value hands, would you be double barrelling here as a bluff ever? (Not that I think balance is very important in this spot, I'm just curious). However, if balancing was an important factor in this spot, would you consider check/doing something with your value hands rather than straight up betting? You mention he's aggro so I think check/shoving and allowing him to bet with his floats/weak equity draws/low pairs/etc would be a good line here. Thoughts?
I wouldn't mind betting a strong draw like an open ender or hearts ott bec of his weak peeling range otf (maybe even QK since it has two over +gs and contains the best blockers to his Jx).
I think though that c/jamming seems like a very appealing play with a lot of my range. I have little bit of a problem with it with this hand though because we let him check back and realize his equity whenever he wants (and hands like A9 that we can get value from), and when we get called we are likely always behind. It is a very interesting hand and a tough spot. In this situation I will be looking for a lower variance play also. Surely there's more variance involved in c/jamming since we auto stackoff vs a Jack and if he chooses to check back any kind of overcards or weak draws we let him get there.
Not the perfect response I know. kinda just trying to discuss with myself as I am very torn what the best option is. I still lean towards betting like I did, just having a little bit of a hard time explaining exactly why :P Would appreciate more point of views on this spot!
Great video Spen! Just one question: In the party tournament, min. 31 where you have KQ, you play x/c turn and x/f river. Wouldn't it be better if we throw a small second barrell on turn representing the flush or even str8 with AK, and making it cheaper than the x/c?
The problem with that is that I rarely get called by worse, and I think his range is beating us at this point. We do however have sdv and a decent draw to call a bet with. You do make a good point about if we bet we can bet small to realize our equity since it is really hard for him to shove over it with our range being uncapped and pretty nutted.
In Party table around 26 minutes. You cold 4B AQo from SB vs UTG and UTG+1 3B.
Then mention that you think their ranges are really wide, but your plan is to 4B fold. And you dont think they will call with much worse hands like A4s.
Why not just flat Aqo then ?
Proberly beating a dead horse here. But arent you mostly just folding out worse with the cold 4B. Your hand selection seems a bit odd to me, why not just 4B fold some worse Ax, maybe some brodway's, that can block top of their ranges.
I gues its because you dont want to be 4B squeezed of by UTG, or play 3 way OOP postflop.
I just don't think they will continue with their bluffing portion of their ranges, so we get to take down all that money pre when they fold. OOP against 2 opponents it will be hard to get to showdown unless we hit a big hand, so I don't think we can profit as much as just taking it down pre.
Good stuff as always. I think alot about that TT hand vs Chuck and I like that turnbet but can we really fold if he shove? The pot will be 343k and we have 120k left behind. As you said our line are unusual and I can see a aggro player like that shove hands like AQhh, KQhh, 9xhh for example. If he has the jack (or any huge valuehand like boats and KK+) I think he would just call us down instead of jamming.
i am at the 10min mark. TT hand. at 10:49 u say you bet turn bc u can get away easier then.
1) this implicates that u bet-fold turn?
semms kinda crazy and exploitable to me. especially vs an agro guy in a large pot? i am not a fan of investing 1/2 of my whole stack into a hand, and then give up. you have to be really sure he raises you with a J+.
i am not overly convinced by this turnbet but i understand your point, since he plays lots of hands.
But imo he not just plays KQ,QT, so protection is not so important. (+ u block qt , t8 and kt combos) so he valuetowns himself with his turnbet. i like a c-r turnallin way more. if he has u beat, thats UL then. cant see an agro guy taking a freecard with hands like KQ, QT.
also cant see u getting lots of value on the turnbet. guess your image is solid and he know that u know he is agro. even c-bet without anything on this flop vs him is kinda suicide. and with your turnbet he can play perfectly then. folding his floats and weak draws. and 9x. and continue with a J+.
on the other hand your turnbet is perceiving polarized. Because checkcall turn is standard.
2) lets say he calls the turn. then pot is 220k and 118k left. so many rivers suck. Whats your river plan then?
3) Whats the plan should he raise turn allin?
4) the flop: what was your plan if he raises your c-bet? should u fold, then i def dont like c-betting. rather c-c .
Been thinking more about this TT hand. It seems to me now that what tele said is very reasonable. I think we need to bet to target his weaker showdownhands, because we are quite vulnerable still, and we give him a chance to check back where we could get value or fold out decent equity. If he shoves it gets really awkward,, I don't expect him to jam very often tho, mostly just call with his good draws, some 9x and Jx. I don't think he will jam a hand like QT too often because I think he knows he can't rep a jack too much that way. So I think it becomes more of a question of what kind of rivers we can check/call on when he calls turn. I don't think there's value in jamming river unless it's a T or maaaybe jack, and even then I might even check. So does he have enough potential bluffcombos compared to Jx, 99, 55 (KK+) otr to justify calling?
Lets pick out some different rivers and see how often he needs to be jamming his missed draws. he needs to bluff more than ~35% for us to call given the price.
2h:
valuerange: 78hh, AQhh, 89hh, 97hh, Q9hh, K9hh, A9hh, Q8hh, QKhh, AThh, 99(3 combos), J9cc, 55(3 combos), QJ, KJ, AJ(8 of each of these makes 24 combos)=41 total.
air otr: QT(8 combos), T8ss, T8dd, 78ss, 78dd, 78cc=13combos
If he bluffs all his air here he is bluffing 13/(41+13)*100= 24.07%, making it a pretty clear fold. he would have to flat a bunch of QK without hearts ott, and turn some 9x into bluffs to prob make it close.
maybe he turns some 9x into bluffs here too, but it seems like a super clear fold on this river because he will hit either his draw or enough sdv to check.
air otr: QT, T8ss, T8dd, 78s, AThh, AQhh, QKhh (8+1+1+4+1+1+1=17)
17/(41+17)*100=29.31%
Here I did widen his valuerange slightly to any Jx he flats pre imo, and it makes it so I don't beat enough combos even if he bluffs 100% of his air. If I missed any combos, please let me know.
So what if he jams turn? Lets just assume he plays somewhat balanced in the sense that if he jams a hand like QJ, he also jams QKhh and vica versa. If not we are just guessing and the analysis becomes very vulnerable to small mistakes and pretty pointless.
against a jamming range of oesd, flushdraws, any Jx, Bah, cant get my pokerstove to work, can someone plug in that range and see how much equity we have?
Seems like you're not fully addressing the question:
is this turn bet profitable?
This probably depends on the river action on various cards but shouldn't we also be looking at how this turn card affects both your ranges and how his range responds to a bet. Seems like a turn bet folds out all his floats and weak showdown hands and gets called/raised by strong draws, trips+ and 9x.
So it looks to me like there isn't much value in a bet and a check keeps villain's range wide.
Considering ranges, it seems like the turn card favours villain in a big way and you should consider checking your whole range. How much Jx do you have there?
(I would prob reach the flop with AJ,JTs,QJs,KJs and maybe check the flop with some of the weaker combos...say, QJs, which has some outs protected and doesn't love gii postflop). So maybe check call the turn with T9s,TT,QQ+,JTs,99(32combos) and bet AJ,KJs(10combos)+bluffs.
He's an aggro player and yet your bet seems to force him to play close to perfectly. If you check he's likely betting a large% with a range that you beat (not massively ahead of but,hey, this is a tough spot...and anyway, you don't need to be ahead of this turn-betting range to call).
Seems like you wanted "to end the hand there" and this caused you to turn a bluff catcher into a "bet-to-take-down-the-monies". I suspect a bet is profitable cos villain may float the flop a lot and overfold the turn.
But i guess a major issue that i'm not addressing is that calling the turn and river with TT will involve putting our life on the line. But we're not that deep yet and a turn check seems way better than a bet.
Not that my opinion is that credible. I mostly want to share my analysis in the hope that someone can rip holes in it.
Really enjoying the series. Apparently it's gonna turn into something a little bit special. I'm blatently gonna get pissed for the last 2 videos and pretend that i'm hero!
Hey Espen! @4:10 you say, that the ATs is an easy call vs. the 26bb button shove. What Range do you give this 24/13 Villain? Would you push or fold against a 2,4x raise and does this change his range a lot in your opinion? I ran the numbers trough ICM-izer and if we say there are 11 players remaining and villain pushes this range: 22+,A7s+,A9o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs,JTs,T9s (never as pure air) the call is slightly -ev.
If we say he'd not push immediately all of his stack with QQ+ and substract this holdings from his range the call is break even (+0,01M).
Even I am completely off with my ranges for Villain, or it is not that clear and easy of a call. How do you decide (IF YOU KNEW IT WAS A FLIP), wheter to "take the flip" or not. Without reads I think I would have made a tight fold and preserve my stack/wait for a better spot.
Keep up the good work, thanks for your fantastic videos and cheers...
I should've talked more about how this guy was playing. He was really nuts and I think his stats were lying quite a bit there. I also didnt expect him to be just ripping it with premium holdings, so taking that into account (plus the bounty as a bonus) I think it's an easy call.
I really like your clear explanations and plays, super cool video series! Even though I only play like micro or small stakes MTT I still understand in everyspot what you do and why because you explain everything so great!
I just did a CREV analysis of the TT hand based on your comments above, just to confirm your thoughts, betting the turn seems 11'000chips more EV than checking, assuming that he would call turn bet with >=mp,fd, OESD and bet when you check with fd, oesd, >=3oak and checking behind the rest. Cheers!
hello! On minute 33, why do you shove with the KK? I mean, don't you think we can sometimes(rare times) make him do some mistake when you just flat the shove? When you shove on top you don't really give him any options, but when you flat, he may think (incorrectly) you can still fold, or any other kind of mistake, and just shove on top of you, while he's never calling your shove with the 88-JJ hands he can have there. Sure it will be practically the same result, as he probably doesnt have hands he shoves if you call, that he doesnt call your shove with. But still, dont we wanna give him that option when we have KK? Thx for the videos, appreciate it!
call 130k to give the impression we are folding for 100k more? that never happens. If anything I think calling looks super strong because we must have AA or KK if we want to give him any chance of ever flatting.
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btw, you're talking about "i would've made a boat" etc. a lot and keep re-checking your cards, etc... On FTP, the algorithm for dealing cards is on a constant shuffle, so if you would've played the hand, there would've been a different flop ;) On Stars the board is set, though. Just a sidenote :P
I actually heard that before. Doesn't change the profitability of a play at all though, so really no point in me even looking back at it :P
oh and, as all of your videos, this is absolutely superb and i would love to see as much of this as possible. So i absolutely vote for the 10-part-marathon ;) You single-handedly made me a MUCH better MTT-player, love your style. Cheers.
That is a huge compliment! Thanks a lot, hope to continue to help you ;)
10 parter ftw please :) !
Seconded.
dont skip any footage!! amazing series
Whoop whoop... 10 Parter for sure :)
Awesome vids buddy
10 Parter ! But make one every 2 days or so... dont want to wait untill christmas to see the ending :)
Good stuff thnx
I'm really enjoying your videos and feel like i've improved quite a bit by watching them. 10 parts would be awesome!
Cool! I have release dates every 2 weeks normally. would you want me to break it up with some diffrent footage in between, or just gun out 10 str8 parts?
+1
10 straight parts!
The people have spoken!!
Around 10:40 you are discussing the different lines you could take on this turn card vs his range. I think on this turn card, when you bet, your range is heavily weighted towards value hands, would you be double barrelling here as a bluff ever? (Not that I think balance is very important in this spot, I'm just curious). However, if balancing was an important factor in this spot, would you consider check/doing something with your value hands rather than straight up betting? You mention he's aggro so I think check/shoving and allowing him to bet with his floats/weak equity draws/low pairs/etc would be a good line here. Thoughts?
I wouldn't mind betting a strong draw like an open ender or hearts ott bec of his weak peeling range otf (maybe even QK since it has two over +gs and contains the best blockers to his Jx).
I think though that c/jamming seems like a very appealing play with a lot of my range. I have little bit of a problem with it with this hand though because we let him check back and realize his equity whenever he wants (and hands like A9 that we can get value from), and when we get called we are likely always behind. It is a very interesting hand and a tough spot. In this situation I will be looking for a lower variance play also. Surely there's more variance involved in c/jamming since we auto stackoff vs a Jack and if he chooses to check back any kind of overcards or weak draws we let him get there.
Not the perfect response I know. kinda just trying to discuss with myself as I am very torn what the best option is. I still lean towards betting like I did, just having a little bit of a hard time explaining exactly why :P Would appreciate more point of views on this spot!
gun her out.
Great video Spen! Just one question: In the party tournament, min. 31 where you have KQ, you play x/c turn and x/f river. Wouldn't it be better if we throw a small second barrell on turn representing the flush or even str8 with AK, and making it cheaper than the x/c?
The problem with that is that I rarely get called by worse, and I think his range is beating us at this point. We do however have sdv and a decent draw to call a bet with. You do make a good point about if we bet we can bet small to realize our equity since it is really hard for him to shove over it with our range being uncapped and pretty nutted.
Thanx for the reply, Espen!
Just curious.
In Party table around 26 minutes. You cold 4B AQo from SB vs UTG and UTG+1 3B.
Then mention that you think their ranges are really wide, but your plan is to 4B fold. And you dont think they will call with much worse hands like A4s.
Why not just flat Aqo then ?
Proberly beating a dead horse here. But arent you mostly just folding out worse with the cold 4B. Your hand selection seems a bit odd to me, why not just 4B fold some worse Ax, maybe some brodway's, that can block top of their ranges.
I gues its because you dont want to be 4B squeezed of by UTG, or play 3 way OOP postflop.
Any comments ?
I just don't think they will continue with their bluffing portion of their ranges, so we get to take down all that money pre when they fold. OOP against 2 opponents it will be hard to get to showdown unless we hit a big hand, so I don't think we can profit as much as just taking it down pre.
in for the 10 parter, awesome stuff
Good stuff as always. I think alot about that TT hand vs Chuck and I like that turnbet but can we really fold if he shove? The pot will be 343k and we have 120k left behind. As you said our line are unusual and I can see a aggro player like that shove hands like AQhh, KQhh, 9xhh for example. If he has the jack (or any huge valuehand like boats and KK+) I think he would just call us down instead of jamming.
i agree to all. imo betcall turn is superior to bet-fold.
hi.
i am at the 10min
mark. TT hand. at 10:49 u say you bet turn bc u can get away easier
then.
1) this implicates
that u bet-fold turn?
semms kinda crazy and exploitable to me. especially vs an agro guy in a large pot? i am
not a fan of investing 1/2 of my whole stack into a hand, and then
give up. you have to be really sure he raises you with a J+.
i am not overly convinced by this turnbet but i understand your point, since he plays
lots of hands.
But imo he not just plays KQ,QT, so protection is not so important. (+ u block qt , t8 and kt
combos) so he valuetowns himself with his turnbet. i like a c-r
turnallin way more. if he has u beat, thats UL then. cant see an
agro guy taking a freecard with hands like KQ, QT.
also cant see u getting lots of value on the turnbet. guess your image is solid and
he know that u know he is agro. even c-bet without anything on this
flop vs him is kinda suicide. and with your turnbet he can play
perfectly then. folding his floats and weak draws. and 9x. and
continue with a J+.
on the other hand your turnbet is perceiving polarized. Because checkcall turn is
standard.
2) lets say he calls the turn. then pot is 220k and 118k left. so many rivers suck. Whats
your river plan then?
3) Whats the plan should he raise turn allin?
4) the flop: what was your plan if he raises your c-bet? should u fold, then i def
dont like c-betting. rather c-c .
ty again for answering my concerns
Been thinking more about this TT hand. It seems to me now that what tele said is very reasonable. I think we need to bet to target his weaker showdownhands, because we are quite vulnerable still, and we give him a chance to check back where we could get value or fold out decent equity. If he shoves it gets really awkward,, I don't expect him to jam very often tho, mostly just call with his good draws, some 9x and Jx. I don't think he will jam a hand like QT too often because I think he knows he can't rep a jack too much that way. So I think it becomes more of a question of what kind of rivers we can check/call on when he calls turn. I don't think there's value in jamming river unless it's a T or maaaybe jack, and even then I might even check. So does he have enough potential bluffcombos compared to Jx, 99, 55 (KK+) otr to justify calling?
Lets pick out some different rivers and see how often he needs to be jamming his missed draws. he needs to bluff more than ~35% for us to call given the price.
2h:
valuerange: 78hh, AQhh, 89hh, 97hh, Q9hh, K9hh, A9hh, Q8hh, QKhh, AThh, 99(3 combos), J9cc, 55(3 combos), QJ, KJ, AJ(8 of each of these makes 24 combos)=41 total.
air otr: QT(8 combos), T8ss, T8dd, 78ss, 78dd, 78cc=13combos
If he bluffs all his air here he is bluffing 13/(41+13)*100= 24.07%, making it a pretty clear fold. he would have to flat a bunch of QK without hearts ott, and turn some 9x into bluffs to prob make it close.
Qs:
Value: QJ(6 combos), J9cc, 99(3 combos), 55(3 combos), T8ss, T8dd, AJ(8combos), KJ(8combos) =31 combos
air: 78hh, AThh = 2 combos
maybe he turns some 9x into bluffs here too, but it seems like a super clear fold on this river because he will hit either his draw or enough sdv to check.
so what about a blank river?
3c:
valuerange: J9cc, 99, 55, AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J8s (1+3+3+8+8+8+8+2=41)
air otr: QT, T8ss, T8dd, 78s, AThh, AQhh, QKhh (8+1+1+4+1+1+1=17)
17/(41+17)*100=29.31%
Here I did widen his valuerange slightly to any Jx he flats pre imo, and it makes it so I don't beat enough combos even if he bluffs 100% of his air. If I missed any combos, please let me know.
So what if he jams turn? Lets just assume he plays somewhat balanced in the sense that if he jams a hand like QJ, he also jams QKhh and vica versa. If not we are just guessing and the analysis becomes very vulnerable to small mistakes and pretty pointless.
against a jamming range of oesd, flushdraws, any Jx, Bah, cant get my pokerstove to work, can someone plug in that range and see how much equity we have?
hi, no worries if i'm replying too late.
Seems like you're not fully addressing the question:
is this turn bet profitable?
This probably depends on the river action on various cards but shouldn't we also be looking at how this turn card affects both your ranges and how his range responds to a bet. Seems like a turn bet folds out all his floats and weak showdown hands and gets called/raised by strong draws, trips+ and 9x.
So it looks to me like there isn't much value in a bet and a check keeps villain's range wide.
Considering ranges, it seems like the turn card favours villain in a big way and you should consider checking your whole range. How much Jx do you have there?
(I would prob reach the flop with AJ,JTs,QJs,KJs and maybe check the flop with some of the weaker combos...say, QJs, which has some outs protected and doesn't love gii postflop). So maybe check call the turn with T9s,TT,QQ+,JTs,99(32combos) and bet AJ,KJs(10combos)+bluffs.
He's an aggro player and yet your bet seems to force him to play close to perfectly. If you check he's likely betting a large% with a range that you beat (not massively ahead of but,hey, this is a tough spot...and anyway, you don't need to be ahead of this turn-betting range to call).
Seems like you wanted "to end the hand there" and this caused you to turn a bluff catcher into a "bet-to-take-down-the-monies". I suspect a bet is profitable cos villain may float the flop a lot and overfold the turn.
But i guess a major issue that i'm not addressing is that calling the turn and river with TT will involve putting our life on the line. But we're not that deep yet and a turn check seems way better than a bet.
Not that my opinion is that credible. I mostly want to share my analysis in the hope that someone can rip holes in it.
Really enjoying the series. Apparently it's gonna turn into something a little bit special. I'm blatently gonna get pissed for the last 2 videos and pretend that i'm hero!
vs : AJs,KJs,QTs+,J8s+,T8s,AhQh,KhQh,AhTh,KhTh,Ah9h,Kh9h,Qh9h,Qh8h,9h8h,9h7h,8h7h,AJo,KJo,QTo+,JTo
30.7% . getting almost 3:1 on a turnshove: clear betcall then.
no way u can fold after the 2nd J.
should he raise flop i guess u call and evaluate the turncard?
have to reread your long post, to fully understand your math
ok ty. this was interesting with your possible riveroutcomes. river you must be ahead 2.9:1 = 25.6%. so only after a blank u can call.
then i like your bet turn, bc u can profitably call a shove.
Oh yeah you are right, I made a mistake in the maths there
do you have 2 pokerstars accounts??
No, the one site is pokerstars.fr, the french site with a whole set of different tournaments :)
apparently "right off the bat" came from 19th century Australia. Think it might be a cricket thang.
Marathon watching all of these. Great series so far and sick run!
Hey Espen!
@4:10 you say, that the ATs is an easy call vs. the 26bb button shove. What Range do you give this 24/13 Villain? Would you push or fold against a 2,4x raise and does this change his range a lot in your opinion? I ran the numbers trough ICM-izer and if we say there are 11 players remaining and villain pushes this range: 22+,A7s+,A9o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs,JTs,T9s (never as pure air) the call is slightly -ev.
If we say he'd not push immediately all of his stack with QQ+ and substract this holdings from his range the call is break even (+0,01M).
Even I am completely off with my ranges for Villain, or it is not that clear and easy of a call. How do you decide (IF YOU KNEW IT WAS A FLIP), wheter to "take the flip" or not. Without reads I think I would have made a tight fold and preserve my stack/wait for a better spot.
Keep up the good work, thanks for your fantastic videos and cheers...
Hey bluff call,
I should've talked more about how this guy was playing. He was really nuts and I think his stats were lying quite a bit there. I also didnt expect him to be just ripping it with premium holdings, so taking that into account (plus the bounty as a bonus) I think it's an easy call.
I really like your clear explanations and plays, super cool video series! Even though I only play like micro or small stakes MTT I still understand in everyspot what you do and why because you explain everything so great!
Thanks man!
Hey Espen! Congrats on your big score!
I just did a CREV analysis of the TT hand based on your comments above, just to confirm your thoughts, betting the turn seems 11'000chips more EV than checking, assuming that he would call turn bet with >=mp,fd, OESD and bet when you check with fd, oesd, >=3oak and checking behind the rest. Cheers!
NIce! Thanks a lot :)
hello! On minute 33, why do you shove with the KK? I mean, don't you think we can sometimes(rare times) make him do some mistake when you just flat the shove? When you shove on top you don't really give him any options, but when you flat, he may think (incorrectly) you can still fold, or any other kind of mistake, and just shove on top of you, while he's never calling your shove with the 88-JJ hands he can have there. Sure it will be practically the same result, as he probably doesnt have hands he shoves if you call, that he doesnt call your shove with. But still, dont we wanna give him that option when we have KK? Thx for the videos, appreciate it!
call 130k to give the impression we are folding for 100k more? that never happens. If anything I think calling looks super strong because we must have AA or KK if we want to give him any chance of ever flatting.
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